Master Trump Thread

[Fraggle Underdark]

The indictments and the investigations are serious enough that having reached this point, they're not just going to fade away. The train hasn't reached a destination yet but we know it's not going to stop and turn around.

 

Also some of this is interesting even for what's already occurred, as criminal charges against a former president like this are historic in themselves, and add to the historical record and broad consensus among serious thinkers of Trump as one of the worst presidents the country has ever had.

 

But most fundamentally, why do you care if he goes to prison or some other physical punishment? It won't affect your own life. One could say that him going to prison is also hollow or a nothingburger. Arguably the biggest effect of a prison term would be for the historical record and for showing other people what you will face if you attempt his crimes. But much of the same thing can be said about massive, multiple, expensive prosecutions he has to deal with, filled with humiliating details. (Obviously not to his base, obviously.)

 

I would say genuinely that you're completely entitled to have your own preferences on what matters to you, but it's essentially arbitrary to care only about prison and nothing lesser or on the way there. Again, people are completely entitled to care about what they care about, but it's just as valid for someone else to draw the "line of importance" at a different place.

[Olallieberry]

2 hours ago, - 𝕱𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖌𝖑𝖊𝕽𝖔𝖈𝕶 - said:

they're not just going to fade away

They will if his juries acquit him.

 

Actually maybe you're right, it'll be worse than fading away - it'll trigger his revenge spree.

 

There are Republican voters who will reject him if convicted and flock back to him if acquitted. There are enough of them that they'll return him to the presidency. When he gets there, he'll do everything he can to accrue power until he achieves complete totalitarianism.

[Fraggle Underdark]

Not what I meant by fading away, as you probably know and you're making a separate point. I also hope they do not acquit.

 

His revenge spree is already triggered, he had already talked about being people's "retribution" etc. Also his revenge spree is pretty constantly triggered all the time regardless of whether anything big is happening, while both president and candidate there is a endless history of his petty vindictiveness towards people that even disagree with him.

 

And sure, hey, theoretically, maybe he'll win the presidency even though he lost in 2020 by fair margins, and that was before he tried to overthrow the government and became a perpetual whiner. He naturally still has a fair bit of his base. Besides that he'd be one of the least appealing general election candidates in history.

[Olallieberry]

Well, my point was that his current "revenge spree" doesn't amount to more than trash talking on Truth Social. As president he'd have some real power to really "go after" people, as well as insulate himself from further consequences.

[Fraggle Underdark]

Oh for sure, agreed. And he's further distanced himself from the kinds of people who would try to keep him in check, who made up a good proportion of his administration when president. And he's basically openly fascist by this point.

[Philip027]

5 hours ago, - 𝕱𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖌𝖑𝖊𝕽𝖔𝖈𝕶 - said:

But most fundamentally, why do you care if he goes to prison or some other physical punishment? It won't affect your own life.  One could say that him going to prison is also hollow or a nothingburger.

It would tell me that someone isn't actually immune to consequences just because they're rich/influential.  So far, the impression I've been getting is that they are -- I have been made aware of many uber-rich-CEO-type folk who get away with basically murder.

 

If you're going to attest that someone shouldn't care about this topic just because it won't affect their own life, then I don't know why this topic exists in the first place.

[Fraggle Underdark]

CEOs supposedly getting away with murder and "regular" crimes is a broader topic, both in the much larger number of those charged and the variety of crimes. Going into that broad question wouldn't be very Trump-specific. The more general question of Trump's federal indictments is often focused on his status as an ex-president with a lot of mob support, and whether the laws for national security and effectively treason apply to such a person.

 

Quote

If you're going to attest that someone shouldn't care about this topic just because it won't affect their own life

If anyone needs me to clarify, this was not my point

[Olallieberry]

I don't care that much about whether he goes to prison or not, but being convicted of certain of the charges would make him ineligible to run for office again and that's rather important for all our lives.

 

Also, convictions on the non-constitutionally-disqualifying charges are fairly likely to turn enough Republicans against him that he'd lose if he tried to run. This is also important.

 

As long as he's not convicted, there are Republicans who won't distance from him, but once he is, they will.

[Sally]

Unfortunately, according to some legal reports, he's not likely to go to an actual  prison because as an ex-President he's guaranteed Secret Service protection the rest of his life, and that can't be accommodated in prison.  He'd be in home detention in Mar-a-Lago or whichever of his homes they deem securable.  

 

Any US citizen who says their life wouldn't be affected if he regains the Presidency isn't well-informed.  Unless, of course, you're a wealthy Republican US citizen who has always supported Trump publicly and is willing to continue doing so.  I doubt too many AVEN members are such a person.

[Missing]

1 hour ago, Sally said:

Any US citizen who says their life wouldn't be affected if he regains the Presidency isn't well-informed.  Unless, of course, you're a wealthy Republican US citizen who has always supported Trump publicly and is willing to continue doing so.  I doubt too many AVEN members are such a person.

Has anyone on AVEN said that?

[Philip027]

4 hours ago, - 𝕱𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖌𝖑𝖊𝕽𝖔𝖈𝕶 - said:

CEOs supposedly getting away with murder and "regular" crimes is a broader topic, both in the much larger number of those charged and the variety of crimes. Going into that broad question wouldn't be very Trump-specific.

Doesn't matter; the result is the same.  People like these have led me to believe that if you're rich/influential, you can get away with basically anything you want.  Until something actually happens to him to show otherwise (I don't care if it's prison or something else), Trump is just yet another example.

[Fraggle Underdark]

13 minutes ago, Philip027 said:

Doesn't matter; the result is the same.  People like these have led me to believe that if you're rich/influential, you can get away with basically anything you want.  Until something actually happens to him to show otherwise (I don't care if it's prison or something else), Trump is just yet another example.

But then that's a larger question you're talking about. And there are already examples like Epstein going to jail. That apparently didn't change your mind about the general case of rich people getting away with crimes, so I see no reason that one extra particular case would change your mind either.

[Philip027]

9 minutes ago, - 𝕱𝖗𝖆𝖌𝖌𝖑𝖊𝕽𝖔𝖈𝕶 - said:

And there are already examples like Epstein going to jail.

No clue who that is.

[Fraggle Underdark]

2 minutes ago, Philip027 said:

No clue who that is.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Jeffrey_Epstein

 

There are continuing news articles about different people getting in trouble for their proximity to him and possible or likely involvement in his crimes, for example this is why Prince Andrew of the British Monarchy is not often seen.

[Sally]

7 hours ago, Mackenzie Holiday said:

Has anyone on AVEN said that?

Yes, they have.  I'm not going to refer to that comment.  

[Fraggle Underdark]

6 hours ago, Sally said:

Yes, they have.  I'm not going to refer to that comment.  

I too am confused. I assume you must be referring to a comment from quite a while ago then.

[Fraggle Underdark]

Trump has now been indicted in Georgia on 13 counts including racketeering, his 4th indictment this year.

[daveb]

I saw a guy (I guess in his 30s) at the airport the other day, wearing a DeSantis 2024 t-shirt. (it was in a more conservative area, not in Portland)

[Autumn ace]

As someone whose been pretty out of touch with the news, it seems like this indictment is more significant than the other ones. Is there a reason for that, or am I reading it wrong? 

[daveb]

I think that if he gets convicted on some of the charges in the latest indictments it could disqualify him from running for office. I'm not sure if that would be the case for any of the previous ones.

[Sally]

There's nothing in the Constitution preventing anyone convicted of a felony from serving as President.  The Constitution is what determines eligibility to serve as President, so yes, he could serve.  

[Olallieberry]

2 hours ago, Autumn ace said:

As someone whose been pretty out of touch with the news, it seems like this indictment is more significant than the other ones. Is there a reason for that, or am I reading it wrong? 

One notable thing about it is that, if convicted, he can't be pardoned for it. Much less pardon his own self if elected.

 

(because they aren't federal charges)

[Olallieberry]

2 hours ago, daveb said:

I think that if he gets convicted on some of the charges in the latest indictments it could disqualify him from running for office

That's true of one of the previous indictments (the Jan. 6 case), but not the latest one from Georgia.

 

However: There is a growing body of conservative (!!) legal opinion that he doesn't even have to be convicted of insurrection to be disqualified from running for office. The original "Constitutional originalists", the Federalist Society, has two lawyers saying this - that he's already ineligible unless Congress, by a 2/3 majority, grants him amnesty.

 

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/08/10/us/trump-jan-6-insurrection-conservatives.html

 

In addition to the multiple indictments, it's very likely that someone will bring a suit to force the RNC and the states to not put him on the 2024 ballot.

[daveb]

The 14 Amendment to the Constitution says

Quote

Section 3
No person shall be a Senator or Representative in Congress, or elector of President and Vice-President, or hold any office, civil or military, under the United States, or under any State, who, having previously taken an oath, as a member of Congress, or as an officer of the United States, or as a member of any State legislature, or as an executive or judicial officer of any State, to support the Constitution of the United States, shall have engaged in insurrection or rebellion against the same, or given aid or comfort to the enemies thereof. But Congress may by a vote of two-thirds of each House, remove such disability.

That is one clear way he could/should be barred from running if convicted on some of the charges.

[RoseGoesToYale]

THERE'S AN ARREST WARRANT ON HIS HEAD! He has until Friday to turn himself in to the state of Georgia.

[ben8884]

I wonder if he will be allowed out on bail or whether he will be held. Given that he has a private jet, I would at least take his passport away because if I was Trump, Argentina would be looking particularly good right now. 

[Olallieberry]

11 minutes ago, ben8884 said:

I wonder if he will be allowed out on bail or whether he will be held. Given that he has a private jet, I would at least take his passport away because if I was Trump, Argentina would be looking particularly good right now. 

He's likely to be jailed pending trial (in other words, no way to bail-out of it) if he keeps violating specific judge's orders not to continue tampering with witnesses, threatening prosecutors and judges, and leaking sealed trial information. Chutkan may detain him over this, she has very clearly and carefully spelled out that it's up to him whether to STFU and stop digging his own grave on Truth Social.

[Olallieberry]

1 hour ago, daveb said:

The 14 Amendment to the Constitution says

That is one clear way he could/should be barred from running if convicted on some of the charges.

Like I said above, a couple of Federalist Society lawyers (exactly the kind of Constitutional Originalists the Republicans love) are predicting that he'll probably get sued to stop his campaign without even waiting to see if he's convicted.

 

These guys haven't said that they, themselves, will bring such a suit or represent such a plaintiff, but

[ben8884]

1 hour ago, Ollie415 said:

He's likely to be jailed pending trial (in other words, no way to bail-out of it) if he keeps violating specific judge's orders not to continue tampering with witnesses, threatening prosecutors and judges, and leaking sealed trial information. Chutkan may detain him over this, she has very clearly and carefully spelled out that it's up to him whether to STFU and stop digging his own grave on Truth Social.

Do you think the Judge in Georgia will grant him bail? Personally if I was Chutkan I would put Trump behind bars for the reasons you said. Trump clearly is not respecting the bail conditions. What concerns me is, how do you find 12 people who are neutral on Trump?

[daveb]

1 hour ago, Ollie415 said:

Like I said above, a couple of Federalist Society lawyers (exactly the kind of Constitutional Originalists the Republicans love) are predicting that he'll probably get sued to stop his campaign without even waiting to see if he's convicted.

Yep. I was just pointing out the one clear thing that could disqualify him, without any real ambiguity or need to interpret. Not that some people won't try to twist that, too.

 

These days it seems like his candidacy is more about trying to dodge legal ramifications and liability. Not that that is unexpected. His entire life seems to be about self-interest and self-aggrandizement. 

 

One of his "social media" comments was something along the lines of, "if they had a case against him why didn't they indict him 2.5 years ago". Of course, that's just a talking point for his base and anyone who still tries to defend him, and is ridiculous in itself. For one thing, it takes time to build a case. He's just going to try everything he can to get people to take his side, as he always does, whether there is any logic or facts or even if it's not even internally consistent. Just throw everything out there and people can pick their favorites.

 

4 minutes ago, ben8884 said:

Do you think the Judge in Georgia will grant him bail? Personally if I was Chutkan I would put Trump behind bars for the reasons you said. Trump clearly is not respecting the bail conditions. What concerns me is, how do you find 12 people who are neutral on Trump?

I'm thinking they will bend over backwards to try to avoid jailing him or anything, but I guess we will see. He will certainly stretch the limits.

 

As for neutral; that's not really how juries and jury selection work. Both sides will try to get the jury they think will be best for their case and not for the other side, and will be able to disqualify anyone they thing is too biased. The only thing people can expect is fairness and a jury that will do its best to decide on the basis of the laws and the facts in the matter regardless of their political stance or opinion of the people involved.