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tygersongbird

2020 U.S. Presidential Race

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Skycaptain

Basically you need to be able to raise circa $500 million to fund a campaign. It comes perilously close to being "the one who can raise most funding wins", not "who will best represent the country, displays the greatest level of those attributes you want in a figurehead wins". 

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Nick2

Wait and see...the 2020 campaign is going to all focus on the Trump Administration and their treason trails of the FBI, National Sec, and Biden because Biden is the one Trump fears.

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Moira.

 

4 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

Basically you need to be able to raise circa $500 million to fund a campaign. It comes perilously close to being "the one who can raise most funding wins", not "who will best represent the country, displays the greatest level of those attributes you want in a figurehead wins". 

This is sad but so true.

 

In 2020 I want to be able to say President Pete.

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Back to Avalon
1 minute ago, Tabula Rasa said:

In 2020 I want to be able to say President Pete.

He's smart and accomplished, but he's young, relatively inexperienced, and unlikely to win in the Bible Belt, despite being a veteran and a Christian. I hope he gets nominated to Secretary of Veterans' Affairs or something.

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Moira.
On 5/26/2019 at 5:49 PM, Back to Avalon said:

He's smart and accomplished, but he's young, relatively inexperienced, and unlikely to win in the Bible Belt, despite being a veteran and a Christian. I hope he gets nominated to Secretary of Veterans' Affairs or something.

Speaking of experience, Mayor Pete was serving in Afghanistan as Navy Lieutenant and Intelligence Officer when Trump was on Season 7 of Celebrity Apprentice.

 

There's still time, and I hope something happens that gives him the political boost he needs.

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daveb

As an old white guy I just wish the nominee turns out to NOT be another old white guy. But whoever it is I will certainly vote for them rather than another 4 years of the current occupant (or anyone else of that ilk).

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Moira.
18 minutes ago, daveb said:

As an old white guy I just wish the nominee turns out to NOT be another old white guy. But whoever it is I will certainly vote for them rather than another 4 years of the current occupant (or anyone else of that ilk).

It might end up being an old white guy, only because the country's zeitgeist is not ripe for anything else. The American psyche was set back because of DT.

 

My projection is:

 

If Biden wins the nomination, then the general election will be extremely close, and if he wins, it will be because of an anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Biden vote.

 

If Bernie wins the nomination, DT wins. There aren't enough independents and swing state voters to support him.

 

If Pete wins the nomination. then he will win the general election by a historic landslide, and it will likely be a pro-Pete vote.

 

All the others hardly stand a chance.

 

 

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Sally
32 minutes ago, Tabula Rasa said:

It might end up being an old white guy, only because the country's zeitgeist is not ripe for anything else. The American psyche was set back because of DT.

 

My projection is:

 

If Biden wins the nomination, then the general election will be extremely close, and if he wins, it will be because of an anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Biden vote.

 

If Bernie wins the nomination, DT wins. There aren't enough independents and swing state voters to support him.

 

If Pete wins the nomination. then he will win the general election by a historic landslide, and it will likely be a pro-Pete vote.

 

All the others hardly stand a chance.

 

 

Not sure about Pete's landslide, but I think you're right about the other points.  I  like him, but I'm worried about the anti-gay vote, which is probably bigger than just the pro-Trump idiots.  

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InDefenseOfPOMO
On 4/18/2019 at 6:28 PM, tygersongbird said:

General question, who would you vote for in the 2020 presidential race? Who's your candidate?

 

I have always liked Joe Biden.

 

I am not jumping on any bandwagon. I was looking forward to his candidacy in 2016, but he decided against it--and I completely understood and respected his decision.

 

Before--long before--he entered the present race he was the one I preferred. Again, I am not jumping on any bandwagon.

 

My choice is not motivated by anti-Trump considerations. I honestly have always appreciated Biden's centrism, bi-partisanship, leadership in a diverse range of policy matters, and complete lack of elitism. He may not be like the common man when it is time to socialize with friends or file taxes, but the way he has always acted in public says that deep down he is one of us.

 

Almost every presidential candidate I have seen, past and present, has seemed robotic and fake. Pundits like to make fun of Biden's many gaffes. I say the more gaffes the better. He is human and does not try to hide it. That is personally refreshing, but it could also be very practical in a general election against a president who probably can't cope with anybody not being fazed by his bullying.

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Back to Avalon
1 hour ago, Tabula Rasa said:

If Bernie wins the nomination, DT wins. There aren't enough independents and swing state voters to support him.

I don't know. Some Bernie supporters voted for Trump in 2016 because they thought he was the anti-establishment candidate, and some of them have to be disappointed. Bernie could swing a lot of Trump voters to his side. The only problem is if Bernie gets the nomination, then that billionaire a-hole Howard Schultz (remember him?) might decide to run and pull some moderate Democrats to his side and inadvertently help Trump.

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tygersongbird

Democratic Debates Day One, What do you guys think? Did you watch?

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Zagadka

I worry about Biden leading because he is a disaster. He could lose for the same reasons Hillary did. Plus, his policy isn't good and I don't trust him in the least. But I'm afraid there will not be a lot of choice, despite the large field. He's who people know.

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tygersongbird
6 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

I worry about Biden leading because he is a disaster. He could lose for the same reasons Hillary did. Plus, his policy isn't good and I don't trust him in the least. But I'm afraid there will not be a lot of choice, despite the large field. He's who people know.

I don't get why all the hype is for Joe. I am not in his camp whatsoever. His response on Talmadge was awful.

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Moira.
11 minutes ago, tygersongbird said:

I don't get why all the hype is for Joe. I am not in his camp whatsoever. His response on Talmadge was awful.

I didn't watch the debate, but I would say the hype is simply because he has a household name and he was Obama's VP. That's it. People don't consider who'd actually beat Trump. It's sad.

 

I'm hoping that Pete Buttigieg knocks it out of the park in tomorrow night's debate despite what's happened in the past week.

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Zagadka

People just don't learn lessons. Most people have no idea why Hillary lost in 2016 (or just blame Trump). And they probably think that Trump is fated to lose now. Biden is just more of the same.

 

From the crowd, I more support Bernie or Tulsi (I just like her). A lot of the other candidates are just on different platforms. I recognize that I'm further left than Democrats, and compared to Trump they are far favorable, but their platforms just aren't good for new ideas we need.

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tygersongbird

My reaction from tonight: All Ten Candidates

 

1. Bill De Blasio-- Came in agressive, but why is he there? I love his agression on the immigration talk where he finally attacked the people who felt the immigrants were taking their America. It was strong. He did great on that. His campaign? It's a long shot. I don't know why continue. He is a fighter, but I'm not sure about his NY ties.

 

2. Tim Ryan-- Kept speaking about how forgotten the state of Ohio is. I represent forgotten Ohio, sad face. Really didn't have an option plan honestly

 

3. Julian Castro-- Great Spanish overall. I was impressed by him. He spoke with a great plan for immigration and he was emphatic on reproductive justice.

 

4. Cory Booker-- Very emphatic as a person. Spoke big on the pharmaceutical companies, and the gun buybacks.

 

5. Elizabeth Warren-- definitely overall the top player of the night. She held her position on student loans. She held her positions on everything. She wants to examine the gun debate to see what way works. That was a bit surprising from me.

 

6. Beto O'Rourke-- he spoke long winded quite often, but I don't think he has that inspiratory presidential mode. He's a motivator and a world-changer. I'd follow him into a UNICEF meeting, but president? Not so much.

 

7.  Amy Klobuchar-- She was a more homely speaker. She is more a bit anthesis to Warren on the whole student loans issue. She is proposing more community colleges to not have kids do 4 year colleges. So, that's a thing. She mentioned how she's red state, and she really is hoping to bank off that. I don't know if it will, but I did like her response to the men trying to bogard the convo on reproduction.

 

8. Tulsi Gabbard (Rep HI)-- I admit, I'm not a huge Tulsi fan. It's not a hatred of her. It's just I see her as trying to cozy to Trump supporters too much to curry favor really. I know she supports green policy and medicare for all, but there is just too much cozy with them. I can even get over past comments over LGBT+ if that is the past, but she didn't seem to really stand up too much to going further with Mueller's report (says it will divide the country) or going forward with civil rights for LGBT+ members, especially the trans community. She wants to be cozy and nice, and that's just not good in my estimation. It's a reason why she was mentioned in the Axios Report about being a monkey wrench to screw with Democrats. I'm not a fan of hers, but I did think her response to Afghanistan was as complete an answer as anyone's. She really did do a great job of going after Tim Ryan on that deal. I thought that Tulsi used her military background quite well there.

 

9.  Jay Inslee (Gov WA)- Mr. Climate Change. He is a huge speaker on that. It's a major multifaceted issue at hand for sure, and he says taking care of that can put 8,000 individuals to work on smart cars and green tech. That's great. I just didn't really hear of anything in the other parts. He spoke a bit on how he refused Trump's Muslim Ban and his track record on that. So, I guess that's cool. It's just not a lot on everything else.

 

10.  John Delaney (fmr rep MD) -- I honestly don't know what to say. I don't think he really did much to offer, other than the whole "bipartisan" working and compromising. I am not sure how that works. He also missed his closing arguments, which was funny.

 

That's my piece. Part Two of the Debates are on tomorrow with these candidates:

 

Marianne Williamson,

John Hickenlooper (fmr Gov CO) 

Andrew Yang

Joe Biden (fmr VP)

Kamala Harris (Sen CA)

Bernie Sanders (Sen VT)

Kirsten Gillibrand (Sen NY) 

Michael Bennett (Sen CO)

Pete Buttigieg (Mayor South Bend, IN)

Eric Swalwell (Rep CA)

 

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Sally

I agree with @tygersongbird on just about everything.  O'Rourke really gave a sad performance.  Ryan and Delaney shouldn't be running; they just have no place in this campaign.  I can't figure out why de Blasio's running either.  You didn't mention Castro, though -- I think a Warren/Castro ticket would be great.   Inslee's my governor, and since climate change is his only priority (important, yes, but only one thing he's talking about?), I wish he'd stayed out of this and continued working in my state as he should be.  I think he wants a place in a Dem cabinet; he could have gone for that without running himself.  

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tygersongbird
33 minutes ago, Sally said:

I agree with @tygersongbird on just about everything.  O'Rourke really gave a sad performance.  Ryan and Delaney shouldn't be running; they just have no place in this campaign.  I can't figure out why de Blasio's running either.  You didn't mention Castro, though -- I think a Warren/Castro ticket would be great.   Inslee's my governor, and since climate change is his only priority (important, yes, but only one thing he's talking about?), I wish he'd stayed out of this and continued working in my state as he should be.  I think he wants a place in a Dem cabinet; he could have gone for that without running himself.  

I did mention Julian Castro. He did great in my opinion. His "I'm pissed" was as real a moment in politics I've seen in a while. We needed that desperately. I like Julian because of his past history under housing, which thanks to Ben Carson's OREO self (how do you not know REOs?), Castro looks like a hero in that regard. I am hoping he gets a serious consideration for some sort of position with the higher end candidates. I actually like Julian, so I wouldn't mind a personal ticket with him. 

 

As for Jay Inslee, I think he should honestly continue being governor. We need more Dem Senators and Governors, the likes of which can defeat and destroy Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham personally. We can't have them in majority. If Maine gets rid of Collins, Jaime Harrison can beat Graham, and can someone please run against Mitch McConnell? My gosh. The country would change for the better just off of that. There needs to be a concentrated focus on that. We need people stumping for the people who are running against the likes of Steve King of Iowa and Mitch McConnell. I just read somewhere that Mitch's wife, Elaine Chao, took $78 million out of the transportation department to fund her husband's deals. We need those people (and Duncan Hunter and Jim Inhofe) out of office for good. The whole entire premise needs change, Trump included. Inslee is great, but for governor.

 

That's how I feel.

 

Anyway, here's the story on Mitch McConnell's wife. It's a doozy.: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/world/americas/us-politics/mitch-mcconnell-elaine-chao-grants-us-department-transportation-funding-78m-a8952666.html?utm_source=reddit.com

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gisiebob
31 minutes ago, tygersongbird said:

As for Jay Inslee, I think he should honestly continue being governor. We need more Dem Senators and Governors, the likes of which can defeat and destroy Mitch McConnell and Lindsey Graham personally. We can't have them in majority. If Maine gets rid of Collins, Jaime Harrison can beat Graham, and can someone please run against Mitch McConnell? My gosh. The country would change for the better just off of that. There needs to be a concentrated focus on that. We need people stumping for the people who are running against the likes of Steve King of Iowa and Mitch McConnell. I just read somewhere that Mitch's wife, Elaine Chao, took $78 million out of the transportation department to fund her husband's deals. We need those people (and Duncan Hunter and Jim Inhofe) out of office for good. The whole entire premise needs change, Trump included. Inslee is great, but for governor.

don't worry about us in Washington losing our blue governorship, we are pretty entrenched.

 

...

trench warfare sucks.

 

also, consider the following: climate change being an important enough issue that someone feels responsibile to run a campaign on that issue alone.

 

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tygersongbird
10 hours ago, gisiebob said:

don't worry about us in Washington losing our blue governorship, we are pretty entrenched.

 

...

trench warfare sucks.

 

also, consider the following: climate change being an important enough issue that someone feels responsibile to run a campaign on that issue alone.

 

Yeah. I'm more worried about Oregon having that militia of Republican state representatives trying to shoot the police because they refuse to vote or hold quorum on climate change. Those guys are crazy. Climate change is incredibly huge to me as well. I'm not perfectly well-versed on climate change, but I respect the urgency to fix it. My personal biggest issue overall is healthcare for all and access to education/literacy. I am so glad that healthcare for all is so big now. I have spent half my life in hospitals, with plenty of medical bills. It's time to catch up with modern world to not be buried in medical bills.

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gisiebob

https://xkcd.com/1732/

 

the big thing about climate change is that if it becomes something that is an obvious problem for everyone, it will be something that continues to be a problem. not something we can just fix and say "Now we know"

 

 

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Skycaptain

From the point of view of an outsider, I'd see using climate change as a keynote in an election manifesto in the USA as very risky. Whilst some areas will be receptive, California always comes across as a trailblazer, it'll take a lot of fast talking to convince the majority to give up a V-8 and go either battery or fuel cell. "Global warming, pah, just turn up the aircon, besides crops grow better in hot weather" 

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Sally
14 hours ago, gisiebob said:

don't worry about us in Washington losing our blue governorship, we are pretty entrenched.

 

Whenever I heard "don't worry, XYZ isn't going to happen", I hear echos from the very recent past ("don't worry, Trump won't win") and the not-so-recent past ("don't worry, Germany's safe for Jews").   

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tygersongbird

For those who want to take an interesting exam: take this test to see where you stand on the issue. It will tell you which candidate you stand most closely to in terms of policy ideology. This is the test: https://www.isidewith.com/political-quiz

 

It really is pretty good.

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uhtred
1 hour ago, tygersongbird said:

For those who want to take an interesting exam: take this test to see where you stand on the issue. It will tell you which candidate you stand most closely to in terms of policy ideology. This is the test: https://www.isidewith.com/political-quiz

 

It really is pretty good.

It identified me as a socialist - which I most certainly am not. 

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tygersongbird
25 minutes ago, uhtred said:

It identified me as a socialist - which I most certainly am not. 

Well, define socialist really. I define as a socialist.

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Gloomy
1 hour ago, tygersongbird said:

For those who want to take an interesting exam: take this test to see where you stand on the issue. It will tell you which candidate you stand most closely to in terms of policy ideology. This is the test: https://www.isidewith.com/political-quiz

 

It really is pretty good.

Here's my results. No surprises here.

 

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AspieAlly613
51 minutes ago, uhtred said:

It identified me as a socialist - which I most certainly am not. 

It probably aligned you with the American Socialist political party.

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InDefenseOfPOMO

The best health care reform would be to stop making ourselves sick with preventable illnesses.

 

But we seem to be in a hurry to make everybody sicker every opportunity we get.

 

Before we roll it out we could make sure that a 5G data network with equipment blasting us with radiation in almost every commercial building and on every five residential streets, or whatever the actual number will be, won't make countless people sick and result in countles premature deaths, but apparently downloading more video games onto more devices at faster speeds can't wait.

 

Either show me a candidate who has the awareness, sense and courage to force everybody to confront things like our culture of making ourselves sick and thinking that we have won the evolutionary lottery to be part of such a culture, or please shut up about particular candidates being "more of the same".

 

They all offer "more of the same", so you may as well ask nothing more than who can get the majority of Electors on that important day early November, 2020.

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AspieAlly613
On 5/26/2019 at 10:37 PM, Tabula Rasa said:

It might end up being an old white guy, only because the country's zeitgeist is not ripe for anything else. The American psyche was set back because of DT.

 

My projection is:

 

If Biden wins the nomination, then the general election will be extremely close, and if he wins, it will be because of an anti-Trump vote, not a pro-Biden vote.

 

If Bernie wins the nomination, DT wins. There aren't enough independents and swing state voters to support him.

 

If Pete wins the nomination. then he will win the general election by a historic landslide, and it will likely be a pro-Pete vote.

 

All the others hardly stand a chance.

 

 

Where's this analysis coming from?  These polls suggest otherwise.

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