Economics, Jobs, housing etc, especially in the US

[uhtred]

A thread I started on anxiety / stress seemed to attract a lot of interest in talking about economics, jobs, housing costs etc, especially in the US. I thought I'd create this thread as a place to talk about that, which is also interesting, rather than redirect the anxiety / stress thread.

 

My basic question is what is the source of the disconnect in the US between official economic indicators, which seem very good,  and many peoples very negative experience in the real world job market. 

[Lord Jade Cross]

Jimmy said it best in 2013 and 11 years later, we are nowhere better. Rent is through the roof, food is more expensive everyday and Im not talking about some californian bs  political movement about raising minim to $20 for fast food only. Jobs are basically a to kill thing that doesnt get you enough to get by despite the bs whinning of companies saying "noone wants to work"

 

[uhtred]

Are you in one of the major metropolitan areas (like New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Seattle, etc) or in a small city (Omaha, Dayton, etc)? I'm under the impression its different. 

 

I was just looking up the median household income and home price in Nebraska, and its $71K and $250K, and that is a reasonable ratio for a median income family to buy a median value home. 

 

 

[Lord Jade Cross]

Metropolitan area

[uhtred]

12 minutes ago, Lord Jade Cross said:

Metropolitan area

Could that be the issue?  Maybe the economic situation is not so bad away from the big urban areas, but bad in them? I would help explain why the govt statistics don't seem to match people's experience.

[Lord Jade Cross]

I dont have any information on more rural areas. But I wouldnt trust any government statisitcs regardless of area. Politicians and goverment organization will lie to your face in real time. Imagine how much more they will do it through their "studies", which will never show any negative remarks

 

When I can afford to buy a home, do grocery shopping, pay my car, have medical insurance and go on a vacation at least twice a year, on a single job salary, or if I go looking for another one, not to have to jump through hoops to try and land somethibg decent without getting fucked over by employers,  maybe I will start believing that things arent bad, as governments say.

 

While Im struggling paycheck to paycheck to get by, deciding if I should have a meal today to be able to pay my bills tomorrow, Im calling bs on any goverment stat that says were "ok" or worse "thriving"

[Olallieberry]

.

2 hours ago, uhtred said:

Someone I know just needed to find a new (skilled) job.  They were complaining, quite reasonably, about the high housing costs in our area, but when I asked, they hadn't even considered moving.  They were living alone, renting, so moving to a different part of the country might not be all that difficult.

What skill, if I might ask?

 

Was it something he could reasonably expect to be employed at, in let's just say Nebraska for the sake of argument?

[Lord Jade Cross]

Im guessing the above is from the other thread?

 

While moving seems like the logical thing to do, you have to put in alot more thought than just the moving, which I dont think alot of people either do or they neglect to mention it in their arguments.

 

 I attempted to do that but I had to first make sure I knew where I was going, knew how likely I would be to find a place to live, know how much it would cost and if I could find a job to support myself. You kind of need to have all those variables figured out and working in your favor before you even do the actual moving, instead of moving first and then later sitting down to think about how youre going to support yourself; which is something Ive seen alot of folks do, many of which are either then forced back (if they have somehwere to come back to) or  have to spend a considerable time getting their feet on the ground, if they even manage; and a considerable part of the cases, they have someone lend a hand. I know family that only made it after 3 years, moving like this, and it was only because the in laws gave them a place to stay rent free. Not everyone has that luck or chance, I certainly didnt have it, which is why ultimately, I was never able to move. But it was something I had taken into account and put countermeasures to, which is why turning back was easier for me than if I had just quit my job on the spot, thought Id hop on a plane and traveled to a state and that a set life would be waiting for me there

 

I fear, maybe by wishful thinking, ignorance or maybe that, thats how things used to be before? that many folks think youre going to move and everything is going to work out just because.

 

Even if you are skilled in an area, while some have more demand than others, it wont mean you will land a job of your skill, even if youre the best at it. Meristocrisy died a long time ago 

[Frendo]

The main vibes I've been getting about the job industry is while there is low/lower unemployment, many people are doing gig work(and don't have a stable income), many people who do have a stable income are overworked, for those who don't have a job its hard to find one, and people are far too afraid of leaving their job for economic reasons(like not being able to pay for rent and stuff like that)

[Lord Jade Cross]

I have not followed up on it, however, alledgedly, the US goverment is looking to eliminate/penalize folks doing gig jobs

 

Also, I think we should remember that alot of companies either inflate and/or create ghost positions to appear as if they are doing well/providing employment, when in reality its a hoax to save companies payroll money. Ive seen this because throuought my years job hunting, Ive come across these types of situations. I wont mention company names for safety but not that long ago, I went to a company that had posted an ad for an office position.

 

The manager at the location told me that before anyone outside the company could apply, they first needed to pass the position around the company employee platform, then, if noone wanted it, it would go to a secondary employee platform/other branch and THEN if noone wanted it, it would be open to public application. However since law requires companies to be "transparent" in job application processes, they had to post the ad for the position. But the internal process for hiring, that was a whole different ball game

 

That, among other reasons, is why I dont believe in the "we have lower unemployment" Not to mention that there are dozen of these "zombie" companies that live off goverment funded programs and do nothing to provide employment but on paper look legit, until the money runs out anyways. Anyone saw the massive layoffs in tech companies about a year or so ago? Same MO

 

Alot of people are afraid to leave their jobs for this, as well as other reasons. After all it only takes you 3 months to get fucked in mortage/car loans to start, let alone all the other bills you have to pay. But goverments can never say those quiet parts put loud. Its the folks struggling that will give you the raw data

 

Also, remember that the US national deficit is still climbing. That is not going to make living any easier in the short or long run

[Naali]

I can only speak for my mom's job and mine. We both work for major (separate) companies that make billions upon billions a year. My place alone (and I'm a separate entity from the normal company, but still owned by the Corp) grosses around 400k a month (speculation, but that's what I've been able to deduce [we make about 100k a day from sales and whatnot]). Starting pay is $2 above minimum ($12) and that's lower than other places. It's a really easy and simple job. In the past year an a half we've had 30 established staff leave, 3 walkouts on shift, and probably around 30 people get hired and then quit after a couple of months. The whole no-one wants to work is semi-bull** because I understand the major factor is THE PAY. Plus the company is more focused on $$ gained than customer service and it shows, We went from a normal crew on shift from 16 to 11 or 12.... sometimes 10 which is our skeleton crew. So when it's busy, it's a complete struggle. The bigwigs are good, the little people are not.

 

My mom works for another major company after her previous company got bought by it. They then decided to close that section and focus on what they were doing before. Now she's eventually going to be let go when things are finalized. They took an established company to the grave. Now she's going to have to find another job - when she had been with the company for 15+ years - and she'll probably start on the lowest end despite having those years experience (new company, new systems). She was telling me the other day that the company was letting people transfer to their normal business at $18 an hour! She makes $32!

 

As far as food, I think it's BS as well. Two 10oz packs of frozen broccoli and cauliflower should not cost me literally $7. That's a  f****** 3rd of my hour pay. But at least my $40 meal I made will last me 4 days! /s (I usually eat only one meal a day, so I make sure it's nutritious and filling). But I also see my coworkers eating out everyday and food prices around us are like $17+ an entree. Side note, but a restaurant I'd go to has a killer vegan philly sandwich. Use to be $12, now it's $18...it's only been a year since it was the lower price.

 

Housing. Haha. I'd be in poverty if I didn't live with my mom and we didn't own a house - a house we've owned since '99. House in '99 was $150k (? I don't remember exactly); 2014 was 210k; house in 2020 was 320k, house now is 480k. When my mom bought the house, she made sure that one income (her or my stepdad) could pay for it if something happened. She made about 40-50k (tipped position) back then. I'd have to make 4x that now just to buy the same house (and provide for 2 imaginary teens!). Rent is normally $1300 for a single bedroom, double from 2010. Why? because of all the corporate realtors and apartment complex owners charging whatever they want. I shouldn't have to have a roommate in a one bedroom appt, just to have have roof over my head and to be able to save a little bit of money.

 

Tangent: I recently finished 1984 by George Orwell and it's really relevant to this day (minus telescreen and such lol).

[uhtred]

2 hours ago, Olallieberry said:

.

What skill, if I might ask?

 

Was it something he could reasonably expect to be employed at, in let's just say Nebraska for the sake of argument?

Don't want to be too specific (since they might be here) but something similar to welder.  Someone with a skilled trade that is used in a variety small to medium sized shops all over the place.  The job pays well but they and I live in a very expensive city.  (I'm here because I have a specialized skill that is in demand at a company here, so they pay me a ton and I can afford to live here) 

[uhtred]

Several people have mentioned gig work and I think that is a huge problem  - a way for companies to get around labor laws.   "Consulting" work is fine, but a lot of these gig jobs are not that at all.   I'd really like to see laws changed to prevent that. 

 

At the same time my group is hiring and we are having a very hard time finding someone qualified (and we pay a LOT).   What we are doing is pretty specialized - and maybe that is part of the overall problem.  As things get more complicated, there is more need for specialized employees, so there can be lots of jobs, and lots of people looking for jobs, but they don't match. 

 

Its also become difficult to filter applications. Recently when I posted a job, I got over 100 applications, all claiming to have the very specific skill set we needed.  Many phone interviews and some in-person interviews later it turned out that almost none of the applicants actually had the skills they put on their resumes.   The job was for a senior engineer, >10 years experience, and one application admitted that he had just read a Wikipedia article on the subject, but never actually done it.  It takes so long to sort through them all. 

 

Sometimes  on the job training works, but it can take a long time to learn some skills, and generally by the time you get permission to hire a new employee, you are desperate to have someone do the work *now*.  You also have to be careful with specialized workers to not hire someone you will only need for a short time.

 

My field is very unusual, so I don't know how big an impact increasing specialization has on this problem in general

 

 

[Qiri]

Here in London, the average salary is around £44,000 but the average house price is around £720,000. Even if talking about a flat (apartment), the average price is about £560,000. The median salary is closer to around £30,000 with a median flat price at around £520,000.

 

ETA - And regarding rental prices, where I am, it's about £1,500 - £1,800 per month to rent a single room in a shared house or flat. I'm not even in proper central London.

Edited May 10 by Qiri

[Lord Jade Cross]

Id like to propose and experiment here using my own living situation

 

I have $25 in my wallet, pay day is a week away. I have an hour commute to and from my job, gas is nearly $4 a gallon, cars got half a tank left, to fill it takes roughly $20-$23 give or take; no decent public transportation to get you anywhere on time unless your willing to wait a couple of hours, and youre lucky  Any fast food chain is more than an hour of work for a combo (we'll skim it and use kids meal prices). No method to heat food from home at work Using only those 2 immediate factors, how would you go about a week of work to strech those $25 without risking the car running out of gas or you going a day or more without eating?  

[MarRister]

18 hours ago, uhtred said:

what is the source of the disconnect in the US between official economic indicators, which seem very good,  and many peoples very negative experience in the real world job market. 

Do you read the same news as me? What economic indicators are you even talking about? Just GDP or something else that does not tangibly represent any average person's life? 

 

Did you miss all the inflation indicators? Did you miss all the news about stagnating wages? 

 

I don't see any disconnect. I see politicians trying to skew statistics to look good for them and bad for their opponents without addressing any real problems. 

[uhtred]

1 hour ago, MarRister said:

Do you read the same news as me? What economic indicators are you even talking about? Just GDP or something else that does not tangibly represent any average person's life? 

 

Did you miss all the inflation indicators? Did you miss all the news about stagnating wages? 

 

I don't see any disconnect. I see politicians trying to skew statistics to look good for them and bad for their opponents without addressing any real problems. 

Unemployment figures in the US are very low.   Wages have (officially) kept up with inflation.   
I'm not saying its true, but see https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households   
Figure 4.  That is claiming that purchasing power (wage increase - inflation) increased between 2019 and 2023.

Other sources show similar:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation

I know many people aren't seeing that in rea life, so what is going on.  Are the numbers calculated incorrectly?  Lies? 

What studies show that purchasing power is decreasing?   I'm not saying it isn't, I just can't find anything to support that

[uhtred]

8 hours ago, Qiri said:

Here in London, the average salary is around £44,000 but the average house price is around £720,000. Even if talking about a flat (apartment), the average price is about £560,000. The median salary is closer to around £30,000 with a median flat price at around £520,000.

 

ETA - And regarding rental prices, where I am, it's about £1,500 - £1,800 per month to rent a single room in a shared house or flat. I'm not even in proper central London.

In big cities housing prices are totally insane, no argument there.   I'm just surprised we don't see more people moving out of cities to where housing prices are not insane.   Pay is higher in big cities, but not by enough to cover the crazy housing prices. 

[uhtred]

5 hours ago, Lord Jade Cross said:

Id like to propose and experiment here using my own living situation

 

I have $25 in my wallet, pay day is a week away. I have an hour commute to and from my job, gas is nearly $4 a gallon, cars got half a tank left, to fill it takes roughly $20-$23 give or take; no decent public transportation to get you anywhere on time unless your willing to wait a couple of hours, and youre lucky  Any fast food chain is more than an hour of work for a combo (we'll skim it and use kids meal prices). No method to heat food from home at work Using only those 2 immediate factors, how would you go about a week of work to strech those $25 without risking the car running out of gas or you going a day or more without eating?  

Can't be done.  The question I guess is whether you need to live in a big metropolitan area.   Moving is difficult but the situation in big cities is unlikely to get better.

I do understand that it can be a lack of capital problem - if you can't collect enough money to pay for the move, you are stuck.   

 

If I didn't have a job that was very specifically tied to an employer in this area, I'd move.   I live near a big city, but honestly it doesn't really provide much value. 

if more people with low paying jobs move out of big cities, employers there would need to offer higher pay. 

[Lord Jade Cross]

14 minutes ago, uhtred said:

Can't be done.  The question I guess is whether you need to live in a big metropolitan area.   Moving is difficult but the situation in big cities is unlikely to get better.

I do understand that it can be a lack of capital problem - if you can't collect enough money to pay for the move, you are stuck.   

 

If I didn't have a job that was very specifically tied to an employer in this area, I'd move.   I live near a big city, but honestly it doesn't really provide much value. 

if more people with low paying jobs move out of big cities, employers there would need to offer higher pay. 

Might offer higher pay, or, as its being seen in places like NY, Portland, Chicago; just have a few undocumented folks working under the table and your set as a company

 

 

[uhtred]

3 minutes ago, Lord Jade Cross said:

Might offer higher pay, or, as its being seen in places like NY, Portland, Chicago; just have a few undocumented folks working under the table and your set as a company

 

 

Are you seeing large companies hiring undocumented workers?  A lot of small companies do, but at least where I am, the big companies avoid it because of concerns about legal action.  Instead they contract jobs to small companies, which do hire undocumented workers (thereby avoiding the legal risk).

Undocumented workers are of course yet another issue.   Immigration is a huge / complex question. I want everyone in the country to be able to work for a fair wage, but I also want to limit who can enter the country.  What to do with people who entered illegally is an extremely difficult question 

[Lord Jade Cross]

24 minutes ago, uhtred said:

Unemployment figures in the US are very low.   Wages have (officially) kept up with inflation.   
I'm not saying its true, but see https://home.treasury.gov/news/featured-stories/the-purchasing-power-of-american-households   
Figure 4.  That is claiming that purchasing power (wage increase - inflation) increased between 2019 and 2023.

Other sources show similar:
https://www.statista.com/statistics/1351276/wage-growth-vs-inflation-us/
https://www.axios.com/2024/02/05/wages-outpacing-inflation

I know many people aren't seeing that in rea life, so what is going on.  Are the numbers calculated incorrectly?  Lies? 

What studies show that purchasing power is decreasing?   I'm not saying it isn't, I just can't find anything to support that

Not a site link of a study but these folks stories are closer to reality than anything the goverment will tell you

 

 

[Lord Jade Cross]

9 minutes ago, uhtred said:

Are you seeing large companies hiring undocumented workers?  A lot of small companies do, but at least where I am, the big companies avoid it because of concerns about legal action.  Instead they contract jobs to small companies, which do hire undocumented workers (thereby avoiding the legal risk).

Undocumented workers are of course yet another issue.   Immigration is a huge / complex question. I want everyone in the country to be able to work for a fair wage, but I also want to limit who can enter the country.  What to do with people who entered illegally is an extremely difficult question 

For high positions? No. Now ask about jobs like construction, certain food service industries, handyman type jobs, less known mechanics shop, you'll find plenty there.

 

I personally know of a lady who was born and raised here, she helps clean a location (again keeping names out for safety) and the owner pays her less than minimum wage all because its under the table since she cant get hired officially due to age and the famous "no degree" BS because I also know plenty of people with 2+ degrees having to work minimum wage  

[uhtred]

21 minutes ago, Lord Jade Cross said:

For high positions? No. Now ask about jobs like construction, certain food service industries, handyman type jobs, less known mechanics shop, you'll find plenty there.

 

I personally know of a lady who was born and raised here, she helps clean a location (again keeping names out for safety) and the owner pays her less than minimum wage all because its under the table since she cant get hired officially due to age and the famous "no degree" BS because I also know plenty of people with 2+ degrees having to work minimum wage  

I see that a lot here too, just only in small to medium businesses (like construction work), not the big companies like Amazon or Boeing. 

 

The whole degree question is yet another interesting one. I think its companies trying to find some way to pre-select candidates for who will be useful. Its usually very expensive to hire someone, even if you fire them very soon for incompetence. 

[Sally]

1 hour ago, uhtred said:

In big cities housing prices are totally insane, no argument there.   I'm just surprised we don't see more people moving out of cities to where housing prices are not insane.   Pay is higher in big cities, but not by enough to cover the crazy housing prices.

There are no jobs.  

[Qiri]

1 hour ago, uhtred said:

In big cities housing prices are totally insane, no argument there.   I'm just surprised we don't see more people moving out of cities to where housing prices are not insane.   Pay is higher in big cities, but not by enough to cover the crazy housing prices. 

The issue here is that if you move out of cities and commute in, the commuting costs typically eat up what savings you may make with housing. It may be worth it in regards to spending the same money and having a bigger property or just a property at all - but if the goal is to start building meaningful savings or having more disposable income, it'll still be difficult. 

 

And depending on your career, your employment options might only be in cities. For what I do, there are only two places in the UK that I could work (either London or Glasgow). If I wanted to move and live elsewhere, I would have to find a new career. 

[Lord Jade Cross]

59 minutes ago, uhtred said:

I see that a lot here too, just only in small to medium businesses (like construction work), not the big companies like Amazon or Boeing. 

 

The whole degree question is yet another interesting one. I think its companies trying to find some way to pre-select candidates for who will be useful. Its usually very expensive to hire someone, even if you fire them very soon for incompetence. 

Boeing has a different hiring issue, although one that does end with not having the right people for the jobs

 

Degrees are basically another legal scam. Ive applied for jobs that I have all the qualifications they ask for, degree included, only to be passed by someone with less/no preparation

[uhtred]

2 hours ago, Qiri said:

The issue here is that if you move out of cities and commute in, the commuting costs typically eat up what savings you may make with housing. It may be worth it in regards to spending the same money and having a bigger property or just a property at all - but if the goal is to start building meaningful savings or having more disposable income, it'll still be difficult. 

 

And depending on your career, your employment options might only be in cities. For what I do, there are only two places in the UK that I could work (either London or Glasgow). If I wanted to move and live elsewhere, I would have to find a new career. 

I'm not familiar with the situation in the UK at all, other than knowing London is extremely expensive.

I wasn't suggesting commuting, but finding a job and living in a smaller city. 

In the US some big cities (NY,  Chicago, Seattle, San Francisco, etc) are extremely expensive, but some smaller cities (Dayton, Omaha, St Luis, and such) are much less expensive to live in and do have jobs.  For some specialties, you need to be in a big city (not a lot of big software companies in Ft Wayne Indiana) but a lot of more generic jobs (from retail sales, to auto mechanics, to construction work to electricians, etc) are in as much demand in smaller cities / large towns as in the big cities.  Pay is a little lower, but cost of living is a lot lower.

I live in a big city where only the very wealthy can afford houses, but I have family in a few smaller cities / big towns and they own houses on incomes from fairly  normal jobs like school teachers and similar. 

I  understand that your specialty may limit where you can work, I'm in the same situation.  I was thinkin that for most people that isn't the case.

[uhtred]

1 hour ago, Lord Jade Cross said:

Boeing has a different hiring issue, although one that does end with not having the right people for the jobs

 

Degrees are basically another legal scam. Ive applied for jobs that I have all the qualifications they ask for, degree included, only to be passed by someone with less/no preparation

Agree that degrees are not a good indication.  OTOH, I don't know what to do.  So many people will outright lie on their applications, and will sometimes slip through the interview process.  At a previous job I hired an engineer who interviewed well (I didn't make them solve problems in front of me - maybe I should have) but after a few months it became clear that the were not able to actually succeed at doing the work thy were assigned. It was a big company, so couldn't just fire them, whole PIP process, etc etc.  All at a cost to my project of >$250/hour full time , for almost a year. 

[Olallieberry]

3 hours ago, Qiri said:

if you move out of cities and commute in, the commuting costs typically eat up what savings you may make with housing.

And it's not even all about money costs, except in the cutesy sense that "time is money." One of my co-workers has a two and a half hour commute each way. That right there is 25 hours unavailable for anything else at all. This is no way for most people to live, unless there is no other option, and sadly that is what it's like for way too many people.

 

This person is doing it because it's a temporary assignment and the experience and resume buff is very beneficial. It's almost over, but how many weeks is in 6 months? What's 25 times 25? Imagine what else this person could have done with 625 extra free hours, just in the last 6 months. Living this way year in and year out is insufferable, but so many people are stuck with it. And moving to the country (the real country, not the commuter towns around the real cities) isn't an option because the jobs aren't there. Even moving to a much less in-demand city doesn't work. It's "less in-demand" for a reason. 

 

I might sound like I'm arguing against moving to a lower-cost area. I'm really not. I don't have to - everyone who struggles with the cost of living already has reasons to stay where they are or to move to even more expensive places to work.

 

What I'm doing is pointing out that while there may be a small proportion of people who can use this strategy, it's obvious not everyone can, and it's not because none of them thought of it or because they all refuse to consider it without actually considering it. The trade-offs, sacrifices and risks are far beyond "that place isn't as cool."