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The second American Civil War?


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We are in a political war now, and the next few years will determine the national winner.  Unfortunately, so far the rightwing fundamentalists are ahead.  And no, this war won't mean nationwide physical combat, but it's already bringing forth laws that are highly physically restrictive in many ways.  

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2 hours ago, SorryNotSorry said:

The problem is that an independent South (aka Biblestan) would be a Christian, wetter, and broke version of Saudi Arabia.

The problem is that's not what most of us want. Why should it be imposed on us just because our politicians suck and our districts are gerrymandered so that POC don't have a voice?

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SorryNotSorry
4 hours ago, bare_trees said:

The problem is that's not what most of us want. Why should it be imposed on us just because our politicians suck and our districts are gerrymandered so that POC don't have a voice?

Well, I kind of feel a little sorry for all those right-wing holy rollers in the South... I mean, formerly Indian Muslims got Pakistan, so as long as Southern Christians don't have a homeland of their very own, they're going to keep bitching and complaining.

 

Personally, I'd suggest the Kerguelen Islands or Siberia for said homeland.

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On 8/17/2022 at 8:34 AM, bare_trees said:

Guess I shouldn't have decided to click on this after all, since people are just gonna be shitty??  Yeah, you probably would be better off, but screw all of us who have family and roots planted down here, right?  

Glad someone else pointed this out.  Amazing how quickly people lose sight of those that are living with the consequences of political culture war BS because they're in states they look down on.  It's easy for us Northerners to point and make a mockery when we're near the coastal hubs of America.  Fun fact: people living in those states will be suffering the most from all this crap, especially the poorest ones who don't have the means to fight back as well.  A lot of minority groups also live in these places, and a lot of people are probably as fed up as the rest of us (Georgia in 2020, and The Battle of Blair Mountain being good examples of Southerners taking back some political power).

 

Let's not be assholes about this shit, and discount the good people in the South fighting for their rights and right to happiness, and not assume that everyone in the south is hateful. 

 

I don't know if there will be another war, but I hope there isn't.  It'll only cause a huge loss of life.

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3 hours ago, SorryNotSorry said:

 so as long as Southern Christians don't have a homeland of their very own, they're going to keep bitching and complaining.

 

The Southern fundamentalists have their own states, which they have turned into just what they want.  

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed

RDT-20220819-0628303485234559612136989.p

Oddly appropriate Reddit find on this general subject. I'm on team Libertalia or Cascadia.

 

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Guest Queerdo

A big problem for white secessionists with a repeat of a 19th century war in the 21st is that all the major battles then are now majority POC (and left leaning) cities. Gerrymandering and voter suppression work great for controlling legislation, but not strategy and logistics. A new Confederacy would have to fight its own to secure critical infrastructure.

 

 

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I don't think civil war would be feasible in this age. Maybe civil skirmishes. I think what's more likely to happen is states choosing to secede. And in secession, there's localised conflicts. It's more feasible in my opinion that the States will begin to fragment under the many pressures eroding its foundations coupled with the crippling conditions most of the world will be facing in the next few decades.

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On 8/17/2022 at 5:34 AM, bare_trees said:

Guess I shouldn't have decided to click on this after all, since people are just gonna be shitty??  Yeah, you probably would be better off, but screw all of us who have family and roots planted down here, right?  

I apologize.

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43 minutes ago, alto said:

I apologize.

Well, thanks. You're not the only person who made similar comments, so I shouldn't have singled you out specifically. I also didn't bother to ask if you meant the other (northern) states would be better off, or the whole of the country would be. I assumed you meant the former. 🤷‍♀️ 

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed
On 8/21/2022 at 5:16 AM, Guest Queerdo said:

A big problem for white secessionists with a repeat of a 19th century war in the 21st is that all the major battles then are now majority POC (and left leaning) cities. Gerrymandering and voter suppression work great for controlling legislation, but not strategy and logistics. A new Confederacy would have to fight its own to secure critical infrastructure.

 

 

I think it's more likely that the PNW leaves to form a White Christian ethno-state than the South tries to again. Something like Montana, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon leaving to do their own thing. I could also see Texas trying to leave, possibly along with Oklahoma and maybe New Mexico. You hit on one of the major issues though, we're too diverse in most states for popular support for a civil war along the same lines as last time. I think state's rights would be the actual issue this time, some of the larger states not wanting to be dictated to by smaller ones or the Red not wanting the yoke of the Blue.

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5 hours ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

I think it's more likely that the PNW leaves to form a White Christian ethno-state than the South tries to again. Something like Montana, Idaho, Washington, and Oregon leaving to do their own thing.

Not likely at all. Washington and Oregon tend to align more with California, and in fact the COW states have formed various partnerships over a variety of issues. Montana and Idaho might be likely to align with Wyoming and the Dakotas. But that's considering existing state borders. It might be more likely that the eastern portions of the coastal states might align more with the inland states, but they don't have the population numbers. As for New Mexico vs Texas, I don't see that sort of alignment either. They tend to differ more, too.

 

It might be a different story if current state borders were ignored/erased and new boundaries were drawn up in some sort of divvying the country up into some number of smaller countries. Whole books have been written about that sort of thing.

 

In any event, I'm not so sure there is any part of the country that would be more likely to want to split off than other parts of the country. At least not state by state.

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@bare_trees Hi. I just wanted to say that I understand how you feel; that's why I chose to stay away from the thread for my health, earlier.

 

I, already, stress out worrying where I live and don't like adding more things to stress out over. It's, always, been my worst fear, since I was a teen, of being shot because locals in the newspaper and politicians, repeatedly, commented how much they disliked people like me, for not being born in the south, for our liberal beliefs, etc. and that they didn't want people like me in "their state."

 

It's not a fun, intellectual topic, for me, to imagine and worry that I'd be targeted, if there was a war because locals are/would, easily, be able to tell I'm not one of them. I, already, worry about being targeted because I've grown up being laughed at by strangers, who liked to comment to their friend(s) about whether I was gay, or what my sex/gender was, etc.; because some have thought I'm a POC; been stared at in stores or when walking/exercising outside, by myself; etc.

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed
2 hours ago, daveb said:

It might be a different story if current state borders were ignored/erased and new boundaries were drawn up in some sort of divvying the country up into some number of smaller countries. Whole books have been written about that sort of thing.

I'm using the current state borders loosely as a way to describe general geographic areas, but I'll cede you that point.

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3 hours ago, LeChat said:

@bare_trees Hi. I just wanted to say that I understand how you feel; that's why I chose to stay away from the thread for my health, earlier.

Thanks so much for your thoughtful and eloquent post. I'm sorry you've dealt with so many small-minded people.

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On 7/31/2022 at 3:38 PM, GaggedNoMore said:

This used to be question that was only debated among fringe groups like militias, neo-fascists, but now it's going mainstream. It was discussed on MSNBC  as well as CNN and also at the Guardian. And in terms of popular culture people are starting to notice alarming parallels with recent events in the U.S like storming the capitol and overturning Roe v. Wade and the dystopian regime depicted in The Handmaid's Tale.

 

It's hard to imagine what a second civil war will look like; probably not like the first one with it being divided clearly along state lines. Still it's frightening to contemplate.

Well, I just hope it doesn't happen for real.  That's all.  Sad thing is, it might.  There are so many whack jobs out there.

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SorryNotSorry

This weekend on KCRW, Barbara F. Walter gave an interview about just this looming problem. I agree with everything she said on the show: she's read the writing on the wall, and she sees the big picture as well. Basically she said the US went from being a democracy to an anocracy on January 6th, and that anocracies are more likely than democracies or autocracies to collapse into civil war. She said the CIA has studied this phenomenon in other countries for decades, and they wrote a book about it which anyone can buy. She also wrote a book, How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them.

 

But she also said January 6th was a wake-up call for the left, a kind of "oh crap, democracy really IS in danger". She didn't say anything about the upcoming midterms, but personally I think enough American voters are so sick of the Cult of Trump that there's going to be a blue tsunami—one that will hit the ballot box so hard that the Right in the US will feel like they've been run over by a freight train. It would have the effect of making right-wingers aware that they're surrounded by large numbers of people who don't think fascism is such a hot idea.

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7 hours ago, SorryNotSorry said:

She said the CIA has studied this phenomenon in other countries for decades, and they wrote a book about it which anyone can buy.

What's the title of it?

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SorryNotSorry
3 hours ago, bare_trees said:

What's the title of it?

Gotta look around for it, sorry. This link might help:

https://www.washingtonpost.com/magazine/2022/03/08/they-are-preparing-war-an-expert-civil-wars-discusses-where-political-extremists-are-taking-this-country/

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed
8 hours ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

At this point, I'm banking on American laziness to save the day.

Depends on who's fighting and how the sides are drawn. I think many rural Americans under a certain age are perfectly capable of fending for themselves and surviving on rather little for long periods of time without modern conveniences. I think this would prove especially true of those in the poor parts of the South where procuring one's own food is a fairly standard practice and many folks don't have some of the luxuries the suburbanites or city-dwellers do.

 

Hank Williams Jr. said it well: "Country folks can survive".

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4 hours ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

Hank Williams Jr. said it well: "Country folks can survive".

I don't think Hank Williams Jr., singer of "If the South Woulda Won (We Woulda Had it Made)" and "If Heaven Ain't a Lot Like Dixie," has ever said anything well.

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On 8/29/2022 at 1:05 AM, SorryNotSorry said:

This weekend on KCRW, Barbara F. Walter gave an interview about just this looming problem. I agree with everything she said on the show: she's read the writing on the wall, and she sees the big picture as well. Basically she said the US went from being a democracy to an anocracy on January 6th, and that anocracies are more likely than democracies or autocracies to collapse into civil war. She said the CIA has studied this phenomenon in other countries for decades, and they wrote a book about it which anyone can buy. She also wrote a book, How Civil Wars Start And How To Stop Them.

 

But she also said January 6th was a wake-up call for the left, a kind of "oh crap, democracy really IS in danger". She didn't say anything about the upcoming midterms, but personally I think enough American voters are so sick of the Cult of Trump that there's going to be a blue tsunami—one that will hit the ballot box so hard that the Right in the US will feel like they've been run over by a freight train. It would have the effect of making right-wingers aware that they're surrounded by large numbers of people who don't think fascism is such a hot idea.

Well, One, I hope a civil war does not happen, and two, I really do hope Americans are "sick of the Cult of Trump" - I was sick of Trump from day one.  I warned people that something was off about that guy, but my brilliant conservative "Christian" friends and relatives thought I was stupid not to recognize that Donald is are Lord and Savior (puke!).

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SorryNotSorry
1 hour ago, thylacine said:

I was sick of Trump from day one.  I warned people that something was off about that guy, but my brilliant conservative "Christian" friends and relatives thought I was stupid not to recognize that Donald is are Lord and Savior (puke!).

Tell me about it. One of my family members still thinks Trump is her last best hope of waving a magic wand and turning the US into a theocracy overnight. Apparently she knows nothing about how the 1979 Iranian revolution went down a couple years out. Hint: all that supernatural stuff which was supposed to happen as part of the plan, didn't. Big letdown.

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed
13 hours ago, bare_trees said:

I don't think Hank Williams Jr., singer of "If the South Woulda Won (We Woulda Had it Made)" and "If Heaven Ain't a Lot Like Dixie," has ever said anything well.

That's the beauty of this country, people like you and me are free to vehemently disagree over the implicit and explicit political musings of politically incorrect musicians. I wouldn't have it any other way, fuckin' love this place.

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SorryNotSorry
1 hour ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

That's the beauty of this country, people like you and me are free to vehemently disagree over the implicit and explicit political musings of politically incorrect musicians. I wouldn't have it any other way, fuckin' love this place.

Yeah, at least until the usual troublemakers look us up and decide to have a little fun. I know how it works.

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On 8/30/2022 at 10:14 AM, SorryNotSorry said:

Tell me about it. One of my family members still thinks Trump is her last best hope of waving a magic wand and turning the US into a theocracy overnight. Apparently she knows nothing about how the 1979 Iranian revolution went down a couple years out. Hint: all that supernatural stuff which was supposed to happen as part of the plan, didn't. Big letdown.

Oh yeah, I've got relatives who think Donnie is just a poor misunderstood genius who has this great plan to "SAVE AMERICA!!!"  Save America from minorities, scary nasty educated women, gays, "them damn immigrants," environmentalists, liberals, your group in this space here...  and after all that's happened they still think he's awesome.

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SorryNotSorry
2 hours ago, thylacine said:

Oh yeah, I've got relatives who think Donnie is just a poor misunderstood genius who has this great plan to "SAVE AMERICA!!!"  Save America from minorities, scary nasty educated women, gays, "them damn immigrants," environmentalists, liberals, your group in this space here...  and after all that's happened they still think he's awesome.

There's actually a big ongoing discussion on another forum about whether the MAGA crowd will organize and try to roust any jail or prison where Trump is to be confined, with the intent of breaking him out. Apparently a lot of Americans don't bother to think that such places are designed to be just as hard to break into as out of. In other words, the architectural firms are way ahead of the MAGAts.

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I sure hope we don’t have a civil war. Maybe it’s a fantasy that some people have and want to happen because they are itching to enact their violent tendencies?

 

Lindsey Graham just said there will be riots in the streets if T-rump is prosecuted over the classified records. What the heck is with these people defending that crook and inciting violence over him? Why can’t they see all the things he’s been doing wrong? Graham started off being against T-rump, why is he now a servant to him? It doesn’t make any sense.

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