Ukraine

[Ksenia]

 

3 hours ago, Sally said:

Thank you for detailing that history.  Most Americans don't understand the complexity of the history of the territories east of Western Europe, especially when they were still tribal territories, and definitely before they were actual states.  Poland is a good example of how many times an actual country can change boundaries and "ownership"; I think it changed hands 4 times in the last two centuries alone.   

It is related to the fact that Russian history is a history of periphery. Russia was always a periphery  of different parts of the chrisitan and asian world, it is a composition of peripheral parts of the christian world, muslim world, and asian (buddhist) world. It is a country without center, even capital of Russia is situated on the border.  That's why in the past Russia used brutal force in order to unite different peripherial parts. And today government wants to mantain some integration using brutal force. It is  a pretty bad strategy. We should aspire to create scientific, cultural and economic  centers of integration without brutal force. US has two  economic, cultural,  sceintific centers of the integration (attractors) : West coast and East coast, we don't have anything something like this. There are different components of successful state (territory, natural resources, people)  in Russia, but there is a lack of  natural integration. Integration based on military force is pretty bad. 

[Zagadka]

Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/world/europe/russia-putin-support-ukraine.html

 

Polls and interviews show many Russians now accept the Kremlin’s assertion that their country is under siege from the West. Opponents are leaving the country or keeping quiet.

 

 

*sighs heavily and unfurls mission accomplished banner*

[Sally]

On 4/1/2022 at 4:55 AM, Ksenia said:

 

It is related to the fact that Russian history is a history of periphery. Russia was always a periphery  of different parts of the chrisitan and asian world, it is a composition of peripheral parts of the christian world, muslim world, and asian (buddhist) world. It is a country without center, even capital of Russia is situated on the border.  That's why in the past Russia used brutal force in order to unite different peripherial parts. And today government wants to mantain some integration using brutal force. It is  a pretty bad strategy. We should aspire to create scientific, cultural and economic  centers of integration without brutal force. US has two  economic, cultural,  sceintific centers of the integration (attractors) : West coast and East coast, we don't have anything something like this. There are different components of successful state (territory, natural resources, people)  in Russia, but there is a lack of  natural integration. Integration based on military force is pretty bad. 

The US is such an anomaly in the world, except for australia.  The US is essentially a very large island, since we kind of ignore Canada's existence, and we seem to feel that Mexico and below should properly be part of the US (our attitude also has been integration based on military force, very bad as you say).  

[Ksenia]

13 minutes ago, Sally said:

The US is such an anomaly in the world, except for australia.  The US is essentially a very large island, since we kind of ignore Canada's existence, and we seem to feel that Mexico and below should properly be part of the US (our attitude also has been integration based on military force, very bad as you say).  

Do you think that without military force some states (like Texas) would leave the union? 

[Sally]

1 hour ago, Ksenia said:

Do you think that without military force some states (like Texas) would leave the union? 

They've often talked about it, but I doubt it, because the most powerful public officials draw their power from their positions in Congress and corporations.  Being local officials or governor wouldn't mean much without that national/international (i.e. corporations) platform.  Texas wants independence only in the sense of being able to flout DC laws.  

[Luna88]

On 4/2/2022 at 6:38 PM, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

Shaken at First, Many Russians Now Rally Behind Putin’s Invasion

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/01/world/europe/russia-putin-support-ukraine.html

 

Polls and interviews show many Russians now accept the Kremlin’s assertion that their country is under siege from the West. Opponents are leaving the country or keeping quiet.

 

 

*sighs heavily and unfurls mission accomplished banner*

My heart refuses to believe it, even though I understand that it's all true. What has become of us? Fear, anger, shame...

[daveb]

16 hours ago, Sally said:

Texas wants independence only in the sense of being able to flout DC laws.

Yeah. That's what they did with their powergrid.

[Ksenia]

Is it possible that Putin became a victim of psycho-weapon of american or chinese intelligence forces? Director of the CIA admitted that they provoked soviet government to intervene in Afganistan, and it was a factor of collapse of the Soviet Union.  I can't image the best strategic provokation for weakening Russia than provokation to invade of Ukraine. Can russian government be so stupid strategically speaking? Our minister of defence doesn't have military education, our system of intelligence agency is destroyed, our system  of strategic decision making is destroyed. I have read how intelligence forces can use psycho-weapon, they try to develop in victim 2 mental disorders: megalomania and delusion of persecution. And it is clear that Putin has been suffering from these symptom for yesrs.  Person with such disordes can't be adequate and rationale, he can't defend strategic interests of his country. He can be like Theoden from "lord of the rings".  I remember in the year 2000 when Putin was still adequate and he asserted that goal of Russia is integration to NATO.  It is clear that from the strategic point of view China will not allow to enter Russia into western structures, it is their strategic goal, also they want to weaken Russia. 

[Lysandre, the Star-Crossed]

48 minutes ago, Ksenia said:

Is it possible that Putin became a victim of psycho-weapon of american or chinese intelligence forces? Director of the CIA admitted that they provoked soviet government to intervene in Afganistan, and it was a factor of collapse of the Soviet Union.  I can't image the best strategic provokation for weaking Russia than provokation to invade of Ukraine. Can russian government be so stupid strategically speaking? Our minister of defence doesn't have military education, our system of intelligence agency is destroyed, our system  of strategic decision making is destroyed. I have read how intelligence forces can use psycho-weapon, they try to develop in victim 2 mental disorders: megalomania and delusion of persecution. And it is clear that Putin has been suffering from these symptom for yesrs.  Person with such disordes can be adequate and rationale, he can't defend strategic interests of his country. He can be like Theoden from "lord of the rings".  I remember in the year 2000 when Putin was still adequate and he asserted that goal of Russia is integration to NATO.  It is clear that from the strategic point of view China will not allow to enter Russia into western structures, it is their strategic goal, also they want to weaken Russia. 

Is it plausible? Absolutely, in my opinion. Is it probable? I think not.

 

Keep in mind how reluctant some appointed officials are to be the bearers of bad news. There's an old saying about that, you may know the one I'm talking about. I think his people know that telling him the truth likely means an expedited trip down from the higher floors of a building that has no elevators...if you know what I mean. 

[Sally]

8 hours ago, Luna88 said:

My heart refuses to believe it, even though I understand that it's all true. What has become of us? Fear, anger, shame...

So many Americans had trouble believing what became of our country when Trump was elected.  I think we were naive in our belief that such a stupid, ignorant, venal, and immoral person could never become President.  

[Ksenia]

6 hours ago, Sally said:

So many Americans had trouble believing what became of our country when Trump was elected.  I think we were naive in our belief that such a stupid, ignorant, venal, and immoral person could never become President.  

I think that big countries shouldn't be president rebublics, it is too large responsibility for one person, and fates of millions people shouldn't depend on the will of one person (president). Also I think that my country (Russia) shouldn't have a president or a king, it should be parliamentary republic.

[Purple Red Panda]

9 hours ago, Ksenia said:

I have read how intelligence forces can use psycho-weapon, they try to develop in victim 2 mental disorders: megalomania and delusion of persecution.

Assuming such weapons even exist it doesn't strike me as a very sound strategy to try an mentally destabilise someone running a country that has a huge nuclear arsenal.

[Frac]

On 3/22/2022 at 9:07 AM, Charna said:

The West is a synonym for the enemy of the state, I think. I don't quite remember where I've read it, could be a book by Orhan Pamuk, but he described the mechanism of how dictatorships create a narrative based on a constant state of war. And that often it's the minorites, whether LGBT or ethnic, that are used to prop this narrative by being portrayed as the ally of that enemy. And so they become the enemy within that needs to be eradicated. Our own right wing politicians has been sharing this argument with Putin, it's all about the evils of the "Western gender ideology" (the three evil buzzwords being feminism, gender and LGBT).

Just commenting that indeed, the right wing "anti-gender" movement in Europe is partially funded by Russian actors, though some of the money also comes from the US and Europe itself, particularly from billionaires connected to various religious groups.

 

Regarding comments about Putin's mental health, YLE recently published an article that claimed investigative journalists from Russia had revealed several sources indicating that Putin himself appears worried about his health. Apparently he is seeing up to 9 different medical professionals, particularly those specializing in thyroid disorders and cancers. Of course, he won't publicly admit to having either condition, but if he isn't really sick with something serious, that would just make him look like a hypochondriac.

[Lysandre, the Star-Crossed]

3 hours ago, Purple Red Panda said:

Assuming such weapons even exist it doesn't strike me as a very sound strategy to try an mentally destabilise someone running a country that has a huge nuclear arsenal.

I strongly suspect that someone else in their chain of command has an itchy enough trigger finger that this wouldn't become a problem. If you've ever seen The Death of Stalin, basically picture that.

[Zagadka]

This is extremely dangerous and extremely stupid.

 

https://ground.news/article/biden-says-putin-is-a-war-criminal-calls-for-war-crimes-trial

 

Biden: Putin "is a war criminal" Biden stopped short of calling the actions genocide. The bodies of 410 civilians have been removed from Kyiv-area towns that were recently retaken from Russian forces. European Commission president: EU will send investigators to Ukraine to help the local prosecutor general "document war crimes"

[Charna]

Putin is a war criminal, same as Stalin was. Russian state media has published yesterday what is basically a call for genocide, and Bucha is the evidence for that.

 

 

 

[Zagadka]

17 minutes ago, Charna said:

Putin is a war criminal

I agree.

 

Breaking this seal of calling for him to be removed from power and put on trial, however, is leading to one of the conditions Russia named for justification of a nuclear strike.

[Charna]

22 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

I agree.

 

Breaking this seal of calling for him to be removed from power and put on trial, however, is leading to one of the conditions Russia named for justification of a nuclear strike.

Putin is a dictator, which means he can change these conditions however he sees fit. If you take a step back on every condition he names, you might as well give up now.

[Zagadka]

3 minutes ago, Charna said:

Putin is a dictator, which means he can change these conditions however he sees fit. If you take a step back on every condition he names, you might as well give up now.

Also true.

 

What is the course of action here?

[Lysandre, the Star-Crossed]

1 hour ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

I agree.

 

Breaking this seal of calling for him to be removed from power and put on trial, however, is leading to one of the conditions Russia named for justification of a nuclear strike.

42 minutes ago, Charna said:

Putin is a dictator, which means he can change these conditions however he sees fit. If you take a step back on every condition he names, you might as well give up now.

38 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

Also true.

 

What is the course of action here?

 

We tried this with a storm on the horizon in Europe before, it didn't end well. Maybe this time we should take it on the chin up front instead of letting them build up to an even greater conflict later. The only thing I oppose more than starting another war is losing one.

 

[Zagadka]

8 minutes ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

We tried this with a storm on the horizon in Europe before, it didn't end well. Maybe this time we should take it on the chin up front instead of letting them build up to an even greater conflict later. The only thing I oppose more than starting another war is losing one.

The real question is how far everyone is willing to go.

 

If we take the path of removing Putin from power, that would almost certainly require a full scale invasion and occupation of Russia. We don't have to imagine too hard how that would go.

 

We also have to accept that if we did invade and depose Putin, the likely last act of that play is thousands of nuclear weapons being used against every major Western city.

 

So, how do you remove a cruel but broadly supported dictator in a large and fairly well armed country with a "blow up the world" button?

 

 

Edit;

 

I don't believe that escalation and threats are the correct path here. The one thing we have accomplished so far is virtually ensuring that, should the world not end in the next year, there will be *decades* of resentment and hostility from Russians, and ensuring the central power Putin (or a successor) has, utterly demolishing the hope of democracy.

[Charna]

53 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

Also true.

 

What is the course of action here?

I'm sticking to what most Polish people have been doing in Poland, which is trying to provide aid, even as our goverment does their best to do their least.

[Charna]

9 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

I don't believe that escalation and threats are the correct path here. The one thing we have accomplished so far is virtually ensuring that, should the world not end in the next year, there will be *decades* of resentment and hostility from Russians, and ensuring the central power Putin (or a successor) has, utterly demolishing the hope of democracy.

That's the difference between the East and the West. I doubt many pople in the Eastern European or Baltic countries care about whether Russians resent them. But I'd say the supply of goodwill towards countries like Germany is dwindling here.

[Lysandre, the Star-Crossed]

13 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

The real question is how far everyone is willing to go.

...

So, how do you remove a cruel but broadly supported dictator in a large and fairly well armed country with a "blow up the world" button?

That's for every individual and country to decide, at least on a philosophical level. If we're not willing to pay for this in unimaginable death tolls on both sides, we should not engage any further than we have. We can't keep painting the fields of Europe and Asia time and time again with blood to accomplish nothing at all. If we aren't willing to solve the problem of our foe's aggression for good, we should simply stand aside and let it happen. 

[Zagadka]

6 minutes ago, Charna said:

That's the difference between the East and the West. I doubt many pople in the Eastern European or Baltic countries care about whether Russians resent them. But I'd say the supply of goodwill towards countries like Germany is dwindling here.

Well, it isn't that anyone really is bothered by Russian resentment. The issue is that we are now facing decades of solid conflict and hostility.

 

 

 

4 minutes ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

That's for every individual and country to decide, at least on a philosophical level. If we're not willing to pay for this in unimaginable death tolls on both sides, we should not engage any further than we have. We can't keep painting the fields of Europe and Asia time and time again with blood to accomplish nothing at all. If we aren't willing to solve the problem of our foe's aggression for good, we should simply stand aside and let it happen. 

I believe we are beyond an era where each individual country can make a choice like that. Our societies, economics, and politics are irreversibly intertwined.

 

We are back to facing nuclear annihilation with an aggressive power. There is no answer to that; we spent the entire Cold War in this stalemate, not being able to do anything to really effect the other power, but being on a constant contest to patch up proxy conflicts without escalating.

 

Even a non-nuclear invasion of Russia is not going to end well.

 

Yes, Putin is a dictator. Much like the DPRK, or on a lesser level China, there is literally nothing we can do about it in any short term level. It is frustrating and enraging, and I can only imagine how it feels for the people in Ukraine, other Eastern European and Baltic states, and Russia itself who have to live with this daily.

 

Escalation, threats, and idiotic statements like calling for Putin to be on trial (in a court the United States is not even a member of and has a law saying it is an instant declaration of war on The Netherlands if an American is on trial) is not going to solve the situation.

 

I believe that the most prudent path is keeping the offramp for peace and negotiation open, knowing that it is not a solution, but something to minimize the suffering of Ukraine for now while we bolster a new geopolitical landscape. To that end, the constant escalations and threats by the US and a bit UK are undermining the efforts of Ukraine to negotiate and end to the occupation, and strengthening Putin's domestic hold and claims, ensuring future conflict.

[Acing It]

19 hours ago, Ksenia said:

Is it possible that Putin became a victim of psycho-weapon of american or chinese intelligence forces? Director of the CIA admitted that they provoked soviet government to intervene in Afganistan, and it was a factor of collapse of the Soviet Union.  I can't image the best strategic provokation for weakening Russia than provokation to invade of Ukraine. Can russian government be so stupid strategically speaking? Our minister of defence doesn't have military education, our system of intelligence agency is destroyed, our system  of strategic decision making is destroyed. I have read how intelligence forces can use psycho-weapon, they try to develop in victim 2 mental disorders: megalomania and delusion of persecution. And it is clear that Putin has been suffering from these symptom for yesrs.  Person with such disordes can't be adequate and rationale, he can't defend strategic interests of his country. He can be like Theoden from "lord of the rings".  I remember in the year 2000 when Putin was still adequate and he asserted that goal of Russia is integration to NATO.  It is clear that from the strategic point of view China will not allow to enter Russia into western structures, it is their strategic goal, also they want to weaken Russia. 

I think that's unlikely. My gut feeling says it's more a matter of a combination of the position he's in and his personality. No one can be in that position, being a strong president of a country, without it affecting them in one way or another, and that's where personality comes in. Not unlike a pop star not being able to cope with fame and starting to go off the rails or think they're better than anyone else (in the worst case them thinking they're some sort of God like figure). Putin also seems to be very scared of the people around him causing him harm or being after the power he has, which is another example of this kind of reaction to power/fame. Another well known example from Russia is Stalin who also suffered from this (there are other examples from all over the world). 

[Acing It]

43 minutes ago, Charna said:

But I'd say the supply of goodwill towards countries like Germany is dwindling here.

I don't know where 'here' is but could you explain? I don't understand this.

[Acing It]

31 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

Escalation, threats, and idiotic statements like calling for Putin to be on trial

I still really wonder where we would have been now if Trump was still the US president. But you're right, calling for Putin to be on trial is stupid, especially at this stage. It's irresponsible even. 

31 minutes ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

(in a court the United States is not even a member of and has a law saying it is an instant declaration of war on The Netherlands if an American is on trial)

I didn't know that. If that's true that's outrageous. Americans should be held responsible if needed, just like anyone else of any other country. It's arrogant as well, with all that the US has done to and in other countries. I can do to you what you can't do to me.

 

[Zagadka]

32 minutes ago, Acing It said:

I still really wonder where we would have been now if Trump was still the US president. But you're right, calling for Putin to be on trial is stupid, especially at this stage. It's irresponsible even. 

Oh, a disaster, but more quickly. That unhinged maniac out of power is the only thing preventing absolute disaster.

 

 

32 minutes ago, Acing It said:

I didn't know that. If that's true that's outrageous. Americans should be held responsible if needed, just like anyone else of any other country. It's arrogant as well, with all that the US has done to and in other countries. I can do to you what you can't do to me.

https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/03/us-hague-invasion-act-becomes-law#

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/14/us-sanctions-international-criminal-court

 

20 years of this.

[Acing It]

20 hours ago, Zagadka... but Ukrainian said:

https://www.hrw.org/news/2002/08/03/us-hague-invasion-act-becomes-law#

https://www.hrw.org/news/2020/12/14/us-sanctions-international-criminal-court

 

20 years of this.

Ah yes, George Bush. The other 'idiot president' the US has had over the past decades. But surprisingly and supposedly, the other president-ships in between through it was OK. It never ceases to amaze me that so called 'civilized countries' can be so up themselves that they think they can do whatever they want, as long as it's not against them.