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On 4/29/2022 at 12:43 AM, Ksenia said:

Mr Putin thinks that only weaklings respect treatis. Real "presidents " don't care about treaties, rules and laws. I know, it looks like that he is villain  cartoon character, but it can be true. 

Not only Putin, unfortunately. I'd say politics in Eastern Europe is very much a show of strenght. This is what a lot of politicians in the West don't get; soft-spoken diplomacy is neither valued nor respected here, and often is perceived as a weakness that should be exploited. We even have a term for that in Poland: waving your sabre, which refers to the old times where the nobility ruled, as they'd demonstrate their might that way.

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Thank you for donating my paypal for everyone, I appreciate it so much, you help me a lot!! I feel like one big family with you guys ❤️❤️❤️

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Lilibulero
59 minutes ago, ukrguy said:

Thank you for donating my paypal for everyone, I appreciate it so much, you help me a lot!! I feel like one big family with you guys ❤️❤️❤️

Hang in there, you're winning, and not just at the Eurovision.

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8 hours ago, ukrguy said:

Thank you for donating my paypal for everyone, I appreciate it so much, you help me a lot!! I feel like one big family with you guys ❤️❤️❤️

I am glad to see you that you are alive! Keep in there you got this.

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9 hours ago, Charna said:

Not only Putin, unfortunately. I'd say politics in Eastern Europe is very much a show of strenght. This is what a lot of politicians in the West don't get; soft-spoken diplomacy is neither valued nor respected here, and often is perceived as a weakness that should be exploited. We even have a term for that in Poland: waving your sabre, which refers to the old times where the nobility ruled, as they'd demonstrate their might that way.

Yes  -- thus Putin has no interest in negotiating anything.  He'll pretend to do it to distract the people he thinks are weaker, and meanwhile he's pressing more military mayhem on who he considers to be the enemy.  

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Unleash the Echidnas

Since this thread is on the topic.

 

When Reality Bites

Quote

The European Union could not fully recognise this, the continent’s greatest geopolitical shift of our time. Because of its roots in economic integration and its legalistic nature, the EU is probably at its most helpless when a country comes along and says: we want to be your friends! Brussels does not say: great, we need allies. Instead, it asks: what is the legal basis for our friendship? We are still a long way from geopolitical thinking.

 

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GingerRose

Everywhere I go in America, I see houses, cars, bikes, laptops decorated in the blue and yellow flags of Ukraine. I have never seen the flags of South American or Middle Eastern countries represented. I think it would take America recognising itself as a "Putin" to ever support these countries in the same way Ukraine is being supported now. It also may never happen as Ukraine is seen as a white country. That's no coincidence. It reminds me of how in early school days, English schools never taught about what the British Empire did. Just that it existed. It wouldn't recognise itself as a guilty party.

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed

We don't have the resolve to do what would have to be done to put an end to the Russian threat. We should have had it out with them decades ago, when we perhaps would have only lost Eurasia and not the majority of the world to the conflict. We're all living in borrowed time, and we'll pay it back with interest when this heats up again.

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58 minutes ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

We don't have the resolve to do what would have to be done to put an end to the Russian threat. We should have had it out with them decades ago, when we perhaps would have only lost Eurasia and not the majority of the world to the conflict. We're all living in borrowed time, and we'll pay it back with interest when this heats up again.

What does this even mean? 
 

I mean, specifically - I catch the implication that you think some kind of military action is called for, but what is it? What are the concrete objectives? Real life isn’t a video game: you can’t just move tanks into Russia and then it turns blue or whatever.

 

What specific action do you think is best? Assassination? Capture of the Kremlin? Military law imposed across the whole of Russia by NATO forces? How many Russian civilians should we murder? How many Russian homes should we destroy?

 

The assertion that we just need ‘resolve’ to address the situation feels, you’ll forgive me, pretty childish. If you think there are actual specific actions that would help, great. But just ‘do a war at them’ is not a plan. 

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ElloryJaye

There are really only two types of weapons that can create a potential world-ending scenario:  strategic nuclear weapons, and biological weapons.  Russia inherited both types from the Soviets, although it's difficult to tell what shape they're currently in.  (Given Russia's track record with other major inherited Soviet war material, like half their navy, my bet is that even if Putin did try to fire off Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal, half of it would fail or misfire . . . which still does not mean it's safe to have it in his hands.)

 

Those weapons need to be taken away and destroyed, or Russia will keep pulling this kind of crap while the international community's hands are tied by fear of what Russia might do if pushed too far.  Without nuclear or biological weapons, Russia can still do quite a bit of damage, but NATO can collectively squash it like a bug if it gets too far out of line.

 

That's the endgame and the goal for an attack on Russia:  pull its fangs, and require it to accept periodic inspections to make sure they haven't regrown.  It doesn't fix everything, but it forces Russia to be accountable to the international community again, and in the long term I think that's the best we can hope for.

 

Whether any sort of attack on Russia is currently feasible is another question.  I suspect it won't happen, and Russia will be allowed to keep a chunk of the Ukraine as long as it stands down.

 

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6 minutes ago, ElloryJaye said:

There are really only two types of weapons that can create a potential world-ending scenario:  strategic nuclear weapons, and biological weapons.  Russia inherited both types from the Soviets, although it's difficult to tell what shape they're currently in.  (Given Russia's track record with other major inherited Soviet war material, like half their navy, my bet is that even if Putin did try to fire off Russia's strategic nuclear arsenal, half of it would fail or misfire . . . which still does not mean it's safe to have it in his hands.)

 

Those weapons need to be taken away and destroyed, or Russia will keep pulling this kind of crap while the international community's hands are tied by fear of what Russia might do if pushed too far.  Without nuclear or biological weapons, Russia can still do quite a bit of damage, but NATO can collectively squash it like a bug if it gets too far out of line.

 

6 minutes ago, ElloryJaye said:

That's the endgame and the goal for an attack on Russia:  pull its fangs, and require it to accept periodic inspections to make sure they haven't regrown. 

Unfortunately, this is kind of unintelligible as an actual course of action. 
 

If the importance of these weapons is that they prevent NATO from stopping Russia doing whatever it wants, then how does NATO remove the weapons?


Presumably, an attempt to disarm Russia would be the strongest possible motivation for Russia to use the weapons in question, so the deterrent power of the weapons is, essentially, unassailable. On the other hand, if Russia can be attacked and forced to disarm, then the weapons aren’t actually capable of their job as deterrents, in which case, how is their removal important enough to justify an offensive war?

 

This is putting aside the fact that the IS has shown that it will not honor disarmament treaties, which causes some issues even in a world where forced disarmament made some kind of sense.

 

I don’t have an answer to these problems either, but I just get nervous when people talk as though real life was a game or a movie where you kill the right people and that solves a problem, or where wars are won by putting enough units in a country or doing enough damage to hit a threshold of some kind.

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ElloryJaye
3 minutes ago, Epic Tetus said:

Presumably, an attempt to disarm Russia would be the strongest possible motivation for Russia to use the weapons in question, so the deterrent power of the weapons is, essentially, unassailable.

Well, yes.  That's why I don't think an attack is currently feasible (barring some central point of failure that could be taken out to temporarily incapacitate everything at once, and I don't think the Russians are that stupid).

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Just wanted to say that I am doing well and your PayPal donations are really helpful. They help me to survive these hard times with lowered salary and very high prices. I appreciate and value every single cent that I get from you, my lovely friends and family!

 

Ukraine will WIN! Glory to Ukraine 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦 russia will be PUNISHED! 

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Ukraine made their return to international football tonight, sweeping aside Scotland 3-1 at Hampden Park to progress to a World Cup Qualifier play-off final against Wales on Saturday. Here's a touching video of the team and the fans during the Ukrainian national anthem (it's from ESPN, hopefully it's available in all countries!)

 

Spoiler

 

 

I cannot begin to imagine what this means for the average Ukrainian, I really hope the nation gets the opportunity to follow their team at the World Cup in the winter. 🤞

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  • 3 weeks later...
On 5/22/2022 at 7:32 PM, GingerRose said:

Ukraine is seen as a white country

hence the swift condemnation of the illegal war. all illegal wars should swiftly be condemned. such pointless loss of life for egos is preposterous.

 

kind of sucks that this is what it takes for international outcry vs closing the eyes to it, but at least you see it for what it is.

 

i find the us pressuring china and india to condemn the war as hypocritical at best.

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Hello, dear friends.
 
BIRTHDAY GUY 🎉 TODAY!
 
Turned 23. Can't believe it as time flies so fast... I've graduated from school, two universities, got scientific and humanitarian degrees, and now successfully working as a teacher and computer manager at school.
 
Couldn't even think that this year I would celebrate my birthday hiding in the shelter from russian missiles....
My biggest wish, of course, as of many of you, is UKRAINE 🇺🇦🇪🇺 to win the war, restore its territorial integrity, and join the EU and NATO.
 
For those who want to wish me a couple of nice words or even donate me a little, here's how to do that (will also duplicate it in the comments section) :
would really appreciate because our education ministry left teachers without any payments in July and August...
 
paypal vanya.mlb@gmail.com
 
GLORY TO UKRAINE AND ITS HEROES! 🇺🇦🇺🇦🇺🇦
 
 
 
THANK YOU SO MUCH FRIENDS, LOVE TO YOU!
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7 hours ago, Castellum said:

hence the swift condemnation of the illegal war. all illegal wars should swiftly be condemned. such pointless loss of life for egos is preposterous.

 

kind of sucks that this is what it takes for international outcry vs closing the eyes to it, but at least you see it for what it is.

 

i find the us pressuring china and india to condemn the war as hypocritical at best.

Why is illegal thrown there in front? I believe all wars are pointless contributors to loss of lives.

i find the us pressuring china and india to condemn the war as hypocritical at best.

Quite agree

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4 minutes ago, GingerRose said:

Why is illegal thrown there in front?

thats a good question. i feel calling it just a war feels insufficient.. kind of how i felt about the iraq war. mind you invasion is a bit better as war almost makes it sound justified to me.

 

crazy how we accepted it socially by removing "citizens" and "innocent" from our lingo and replacing it with "terrorist" and "insurgent" and "hidden nuclear warheads", justifying the assault. how the us can take the moral high road with russia's use of "denazification" to do the same is sad.

 

putin isn't wrong to call the us out on their hypocrisy for using propaganda to support the killing of hundreds of thousands and face zero consequence for it. he is however on the front of doing the same and pleading innocence for it.

 

14 minutes ago, GingerRose said:

I believe all wars are pointless contributors to loss of lives.

i would agree..but one fights wars to defend one's interests..which is why nobody is jumping in to help ukraine..the interests are russia's to lose or gain. 

 

while brutal, wars are more of a carefully coordinated game of chess.

 

russia makes good on its promise to protect its borders by extending theirs into ukraine (along with gaining ocean access)..and the us can play politics and apply sanctions and lie about them working..while china and india continue to provide russia with a crucial lifeline.

 

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Lysandre, the Star-Crossed
8 hours ago, GingerRose said:

Why is illegal thrown there in front? I believe all wars are pointless contributors to loss of lives.

i find the us pressuring china and india to condemn the war as hypocritical at best.

Quite agree

Just War theory. Some people take more nuanced stances on war and violence in general than a binary "it's okay" or "it's bad", I certainly do.

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Unleash the Echidnas
8 hours ago, Castellum said:

thats a good question. i feel calling it just a war feels insufficient..

It's illegal because Russia's signatory to the Budapest Memorandum.

Quote
  1. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their commitment to Ukraine, in accordance with the principles o the CSCE Final Act, to respect the independence and sovereignty and existing borders of Ukraine.
  2. The Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America reaffirm their obligation to refrain from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of Ukraine, and that none of their weapons will ever be used against Ukraine except in self-defense or otherwise in accordance with the Charter of the United Nations.
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Purple Red Panda
2 hours ago, Lysandre, the Star-Crossed said:

Just War theory. Some people take more nuanced stances on war and violence in general than a binary "it's okay" or "it's bad", I certainly do.

Much as I despise war as being morally abhorrent there are occasions when military action is the lesser of two evils. Ulimately I'm I not a pacifist and sometimes you have to choose bad over worse. I support the right of Ukraine to defend itself and my country supplying them with weapons but I can't pretend that I don't find the whole thing a complex moral. In the end I just have to work with a rather crude calculations of human suffering in trying to work out what I feel the least worst course of action is.

 

I don't exactly feel great about supporting a conflict that will no doubt cause many more thousands of deaths before it's over but I believe that simply abandoning Ukraine to its fate would be even worse in terms of the amount of death and human it would generate.

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41 minutes ago, Purple Red Panda said:

Much as I despise war as being morally abhorrent there are occasions when military action is the lesser of two evils. Ulimately I'm I not a pacifist and sometimes you have to choose bad over worse. I support the right of Ukraine to defend itself and my country supplying them with weapons but I can't pretend that I don't find the whole thing a complex moral. In the end I just have to work with a rather crude calculations of human suffering in trying to work out what I feel the least worst course of action is.

 

I don't exactly feel great about supporting a conflict that will no doubt cause many more thousands of deaths before it's over but I believe that simply abandoning Ukraine to its fate would be even worse in terms of the amount of death and human it would generate.

Sad part is the west is petrified of pushing Russia too far.

 

Russia has lost everything regarding ties to the west, so they have absolutely nothing to lose here. 

 

They also don't value human life so the cost won't matter to them.

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Russia will ultimately win the war, as they will have left ukraine virtually land locked once all is said and done and reality is nobody has enough interests in ukraine to do a thing other than identity politics about it.

 

they failed in their ultimate goal, but one can't spin the catastrophic loss of land and life on the ukraine side as long as knowing the only way to stop the assault is to bend a knee to russia.

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Unleash the Echidnas
10 hours ago, Castellum said:

knowing the only way to stop the assault is to bend a knee to russia

That would intensify the assault. Less battle in a conventional warfare sense like the pounding the Donbas is getting from Russian artillery and missile strikes across the Ukraine, yes, but more than offset by further murders, executions, rapes, filtration camps, torture, child abductionsdeportations, disappearances, mass graveslooting, extortioninfrastructure destruction, mines, lethal traps, induced famine, resettlement of Russians into Ukraine, and almost certainly other stuff I'm not thinking of at the moment.

 

Nothing new, really. Just modernized versions of the Holodomor and other Russian abuses telegraphed over the past eight years.

 

The least bad way I can see the geonocide stopping is Ukraine fights. And wins.

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11 minutes ago, Unleash the Echidnas said:

Ukraine fights. And wins.

russia could not afford to lose face after losing so much in this war. that's the scary part..they don't have an option but to win. tens of thousands of russian deaths and nothing to show for it? unthinkable.

 

ukraine winning is where russia truly becomes unpredictable and desperate in my opinion and becomes fully reckless with an arsenal ukraine could not contain if fully unleashed.

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Unleash the Echidnas
3 minutes ago, Castellum said:

tens of thousands of russian deaths and nothing to show for it? unthinkable

Er, that's an accurate description of the past couple months. I'm concerned about getting crossways with the disinformation clause in AVVN's ToS by linking Russian media but hopefully the mods won't come down on me for mentioning I do check. Everything's fine in the alternate reality over there, support for the war is probably around 75%, and if Russia chooses to retreat again it'll likely be messaged something like increasing mutual trust, creating the right conditions for future negotiations, and reaching the final goal of signing a peace deal with Ukraine. That's what happened last time.

 

I really can't find any evidence to suggest Putin can't build himself an off ramp whenever he wants. At this point, even if one believes the Kremlin was stupid enough to choose February's escalation without contingency plans for failure, there's been upwards of three months to plan for it and set things up. This is an utterly unoriginal observation on my part. Olga Chyzh, Andrei Kozyrev, and quite a few others who know Russia well have being pointing it out for some time.

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