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Social Distancing & Potential Government Overreach


Kasseb

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That study says people didn't benefit from the treatment and mortality rates were higher with it than without it. That means it was worse than not being useful. But that doesn't fit the narrative some people want to promote. I guess it was useful if the goal is to weed out some of the people with pre-existing conditions.

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Skycaptain

@daveb, thanks for that link, interesting reading. It'll be interesting to see what conclusions people reviewing that and seeing if they can replicate it find. 

Whilst I can see reasonable evidence that chloroquine and Hydroxychloroquine do present an increased risk of heart issues, this can be viewed in the same way as aspirin can cause ulcers. All medications have side effects for some people, whilst others can use them safely. 

More interesting is the higher mortality in people using them. Is this because they're ineffective, because those taking them were with more severe underlying conditions, because C-19, or -quine use was a secondary cause of death? There are other questions. 

As the authors said there are limitations to the study. One working hypothesis could be that only the most seriously ill were given drug therapy from the outset, thus skewing the data. 

 

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You know what I think is kind of funny about those pictures and videos shaming people in crowded places not social distancing? Unless they picture/video was taken from far away or by using a drone, whoever took it wasn't social distancing either. I saw this one video where someone was recording while they were walking around a crowded restaurant to show  "Look at all these people not social distancing" and I was just thinking "...You mean people like you?".

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Skycaptain

Now is the time to scrap social distancing. Flu and other pressures on healthcare are at a seasonal minimum, so we have three months to increase exposure and aid the potential development of herd immunity 

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45 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

Now is the time to scrap social distancing. Flu and other pressures on healthcare are at a seasonal minimum, so we have three months to increase exposure and aid the potential development of herd immunity 

Sweden went down the 'herd immunity' track. Not doing so well. We'll have to wait a couple of weeks to see if going to the seaside over the Bank Holiday was a bad idea (one hospital in Weston Super Mare has already blocked any more A&E admissions because of th enumber of new COVID cases) 
https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/may/24/sweden-wrong-not-to-shut-down-says-former-state-epidemiologist

 

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Skycaptain

@Tanwen, I've seen news articles covering that hospital. In my opinion the longer the restrictions the greater the spikes. Better to have a couple of 10 000 hospitalisation spikes when there's a low in other cases, rather than have a huge spike coinciding with a flu pandemic next winter 

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15 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

@Tanwen, I've seen news articles covering that hospital. In my opinion the longer the restrictions the greater the spikes. Better to have a couple of 10 000 hospitalisation spikes when there's a low in other cases, rather than have a huge spike coinciding with a flu pandemic next winter 

Hospital staff are hard pressed as it is - not so sure they'd 'welcome' a couple of 10,000 hospitalisation spikes; although I have to admit I don't know many working at the 'sharp end', but those I've spoken to were doing excessive hours in full PPE - not pleasant

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5 minutes ago, Arodash said:

We understood the posibilities of the jobs when we took them

Not so sure - a pandemic isn't something that turns up on a regular basis, and does training include 12-hour shifts in plastic head to toe?  Possibly, my only experience of training was back in the 1960s, and everything has changed in that time

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2 hours ago, Arodash said:

At least from the EMS side. Yes. Especially if your also a HAZMAT tech, the possibility of pandemic should always be assumed as possible

Not so much for the staff on general wards, perhaps, which is where many COVID cases are treated,

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3 hours ago, Tanwen said:

Hospital staff are hard pressed as it is - not so sure they'd 'welcome' a couple of 10,000 hospitalisation spikes; although I have to admit I don't know many working at the 'sharp end', but those I've spoken to were doing excessive hours in full PPE - not pleasant

They’d be even more overwhelmed if it happened during flu season. We can’t keep this economy destroying and mental health destroying lockdown going forever.

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On 5/22/2020 at 6:22 PM, Arodash said:

Well it's not really a conspiracy theory that China is into using this crisis to try and strengthen their own stance in the world but the idea that they released this intentionally is kind of really ridiculous and silly because they were seriously hurt by this to and they know the entire world is pissed off at them so I can't believe the idea that the CCP did this on purpose I think that would be very absurd.

To be honest, when I look at the below graph, I think they totally did this on purpose. (Note these are total deaths and it seems even more suspicious if you consider that China's population is about twice that of Europe, or nearly the same as Europe and both Americas combined.)

 

slZ6bzd.png

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Skycaptain

Couple of points. 

 

It is generally perceived that the figures China are presenting aren't especially accurate. It's alleged that a bullet to the brain prevents C-19 

 

Also if a nation was to release a biological weapon they'd take care that it hits other ethnicities harder than their own 

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In any other situation, I would resent lockdowns & social distancing rules mightily. But this is a pandemic caused by a novel coronavirus.

There is no reliable treatment for the illness it causes.

There is no cure. 

There is no vaccine in the foreseeable future. 

The virus itself is highly transmissible. The CFR is greater than 1%. It continues to mutate. 

So I think these "infringements" of my rights may be a good idea for the time being. 

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18 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

Couple of points. 

 

It is generally perceived that the figures China are presenting aren't especially accurate. It's alleged that a bullet to the brain prevents C-19 

 

Also if a nation was to release a biological weapon they'd take care that it hits other ethnicities harder than their own 

How inaccurate can they be? Look at the graph I posted. Were the total number of deaths 10 times greater in reality, that's still not even 50k people, so about 0.003% of China's population - barely any casuality and only 1/7th of the total 350k+ deaths. Their data was surely misleading in March, but they have been open for 2 months now. If the data was so inaccurate, I'm sure we'd hear about it by now. Not to mention, the rest of Asia also seems barely affected, are they lying too? Meanwhile, out of those 350k dead people, about 140k is in Europe and 140k in Americas. That's proportionally 5-6 times of what China has suffered (and keep in mind that's still assuming their actual numbers are a whole 10x of what they reported, which is probably a huge exaggeration on my part).

To be clear, I do not really believe China did it intentionally (and even if that was true, I don't automatically hate Chinese people for whatever their government does). I agree with @Arodash, that incompetence is usually a better target for blame. I just find that, and the fact that no one is talking about it, extremely weird. I would expect to have heard some conspiracy theories by now, yet nothing of the kind reached me. Dunno, maybe the 5G-conspiracy has monopolised the market. *shrug*

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Skycaptain

If there was any evidence at all that this was a bio weapon Putin and Trump would both be screaming for a meeting of the UN Security Council, as the USA and Russia are two of the three nations with the most confirmed cases 

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Apparently the U.K. just outlawed sex between people who don’t live in the same household. That’s some Sharia Law shit right there.

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Skycaptain

It's law of unintended consequences. C-19 restrictions mean that people from different households cannot meet indoors. As sex in a public place usually results in a conviction for "Outraging public decency", in effect this is true, even if the law itself does not actually state that sex between people from different households is illegal 

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11 hours ago, Arodash said:

Remember when it used to be illegal to have sexual relations of someone of a different race? This is the problem with this level of state control.

It's more what happens when a government pass a decree without considering the consequences first. They had no intention of effectively making sexual activity between consenting adults illegal, because it never occurred to them that that's what the new social distancing rules actually translate to in reality. 

They even have the gall to sound surprised when a population who were originally very compliant with lockdown rules are increasingly thinking "stick your rules where the sun doesn't shine", especially as they who make the rules are breaking them with impunity and no penalty 

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22 hours ago, ThePoint said:

How inaccurate can they be? Look at the graph I posted. Were the total number of deaths 10 times greater in reality, that's still not even 50k people, so about 0.003% of China's population - barely any casuality and only 1/7th of the total 350k+ deaths. Their data was surely misleading in March, but they have been open for 2 months now. If the data was so inaccurate, I'm sure we'd hear about it by now. Not to mention, the rest of Asia also seems barely affected, are they lying too? Meanwhile, out of those 350k dead people, about 140k is in Europe and 140k in Americas. That's proportionally 5-6 times of what China has suffered (and keep in mind that's still assuming their actual numbers are a whole 10x of what they reported, which is probably a huge exaggeration on my part).

To be clear, I do not really believe China did it intentionally (and even if that was true, I don't automatically hate Chinese people for whatever their government does). I agree with @Arodash, that incompetence is usually a better target for blame. I just find that, and the fact that no one is talking about it, extremely weird. I would expect to have heard some conspiracy theories by now, yet nothing of the kind reached me. Dunno, maybe the 5G-conspiracy has monopolised the market. *shrug*

I think you just sorta gave off one of those theories in your post. It is a bit much to say a country would release a indiscriminate virus to plague the world. And i have heard of other similar wacky theories that want to say that China’s did this on purpose. China is busy piously hoping that this is the last time they ever have to deal with this situation. Twice in 20 years a a bit much for any country to swallow happily. Chia is just happy that Trump has so bungled the response in America that added to the world wide outcry of police violence bad talking CHina has taken far second seat. If people are busy saying WTH happened to America they are not saying WTH happened with China.  

14 hours ago, Gloomy said:

Gloomy that source is not exactly Very good. It is not ranking as very trustworthy and much more as gossip. Yahoo is never a valid source it ranks down their with Wiki.  When I was in middle school we were not even allowed to use them for writing a paper. And that was well over a decade ago. It is always good to vet your sources and yahoo never really passes the smell test. 

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9 hours ago, Drusha said:

Gloomy that source is not exactly Very good. It is not ranking as very trustworthy and much more as gossip. Yahoo is never a valid source it ranks down their with Wiki.  When I was in middle school we were not even allowed to use them for writing a paper. And that was well over a decade ago. It is always good to vet your sources and yahoo never really passes the smell test. 

There were a shit ton of articles about it and I’m not an expert at which news sources are the best (how do we know what we’re using to vet our sources isn’t biased itself anyway?) and I just happened to pick that one. 

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My general standard is able to cite it and it be accepted as a reliable source. If it is good enough for me to use in a paper it is good enough for me. I don’t know those other sources though. And part of the reason that I can think of about waiting on sex is that the male reporductive tract can harbor Ebola in enough quality to infect their partner 11 month after recovering from Ebola. Also you know if you are close enough to have sex with someone you are close enough to catch whatever pathogen they have or don’t. But that is my guess. But seriously we are dealing with a pandemic. Our best defense of preventing

spread is altering the behaviors That would facilitate spread of a pathogen. The more we do that the less we give. A pathogen the bahavior patterns it relies on to propogate. 

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Pandemic or no pandemic, it’s none of the government’s business who I allow on my own property. Although I don’t have sex with real 3D people anyway...

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1 hour ago, Arodash said:

The government should have very little business in what I do in my day to day life as it is.

we should be allowed to conduct our social nature without fear of spreading a deadly disease. shoulds don't always match reality.

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1 minute ago, Arodash said:

Theres always fear of possibly spreading a deadly disease, to remove basic rights in the name of security is the dream of tyrants. Reality is, we have rights to be secure in our persons. 

we retain the right to revolt if it is deemed nescisary

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