Social distancing in USA: It's finally working.

[Guest]

43 minutes ago, Woodworker1968 said:

Social distancing isn't so traumatic to me because I was never a very social person to begin with

For a social butterfly, this would be pure torture. 

 

To die in this pandemic as one is even worse, as you can't say your final goodbyes to your loved ones, to assist with the mourning process.

 

Worst possible way to go. 

[Guest]

Flattening the curve simply alleviates pressure on your already strained medical system.

 

Failure to do so, turns you into another Italy, where one must look at the healthiest patient or youngest in a dire state, and allow the oldest or worst off ones to die due to having zero resources to help all. 

 

Decisions no medical staff should have to make. This will break even the strongest on your front lines. 

 

It doesn't do any good for the remainder of the population who must continue to do so, or it's all for nothing. 

[SorryNotSorry]

10 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

For a social butterfly, this would be pure torture.

That's nothing. Think of all those unfortunate travel fetishists who can't get their jollies right now.

[Jusey1]

On 3/31/2020 at 12:29 AM, KrysLost said:

Yea. Now to see if they stop taking the toilet paper.

I don't understand the logic of hoarding toilet paper... It literally takes me more than a year to go through ONE PACKAGE OF TOILET PAPER. I literally had some terrible TP for over an year and half... When I finally finished it, I was like "FINALLY! NEVER MAKING THAT MISTAKE AGAIN!" Like seriously, how much TP do these crazies use?

[gisiebob]

1 hour ago, Jusey1 said:

I don't understand the logic of hoarding toilet paper... It literally takes me more than a year to go through ONE PACKAGE OF TOILET PAPER. I literally had some terrible TP for over an year and half... When I finally finished it, I was like "FINALLY! NEVER MAKING THAT MISTAKE AGAIN!" Like seriously, how much TP do these crazies use?

it's honestly just perspective. I assume you are talking about the large packages, like 12 rolls. how many of those fit on a shelf? if ten people buy them over the course of an hour or whatnot, then it looks like there is a shortage, with lots of empty shelfspace and we get worried that when we do run out there won't be any available to buy, cause we don't actually process time well. it goes from looking like a shortage to becoming a shortage.

[Skycaptain]

Interesting article here

 

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52125039

[Guest]

On 4/1/2020 at 11:01 AM, Perspektiv said:

For a social butterfly, this would be pure torture. 

And it's another way for me to get my kicks. 

[SorryNotSorry]

11 hours ago, Jusey1 said:

I don't understand the logic of hoarding toilet paper... It literally takes me more than a year to go through ONE PACKAGE OF TOILET PAPER. I literally had some terrible TP for over an year and half... When I finally finished it, I was like "FINALLY! NEVER MAKING THAT MISTAKE AGAIN!" Like seriously, how much TP do these crazies use?

Good thing this isn’t an outbreak of norovirus. That’s the bug that gives people the shits.

[goat cheese]

On 3/31/2020 at 2:34 PM, Skycaptain said:

If it's under 12-18 months I'd be surprised. Getting the vaccine will take less, but making enough doses is the time-taker 

I'm assuming lots of governments are putting lots of time and money trying to develop a vaccine.  And I assume that if they do they will step up efforts to make enough doses.  But I don't know.

[Dreamer23]

The actual manufacturing isn't the problem, it's the trials that potential vaccines have to go through.

For reference, here's the timeline for the fastest possible timelines proposed for Covid-19 mRNA vaccines (and how long they usually take for regular vaccine development:

Phase 1 (Immunity response):

Covid-19 mRNA vaccine: 3 months

Typically: 1-2 years

 

Phase 2 (randomized double-blind placebo-controlled study of hundreds of people )

Covid-19 mRNA vaccine: 8 months

Typically: 2-3 years

 

Phase 3 (Same as phase 2, but with thousands of people):

Covid-19 mRNA vaccine: Might be combined with Phase 2

Typically: 2-4 years

 

Regulatory Review:

Covid-19 mRNA vaccine: A few months

Typically: 1-2 years

 

So you can see this timeline is already absurdely aggressive compared to how we usually develop vaccines. Production after this ~12 month timeframe is not a significant cost of time.

I also specifically called it "Covid-19 mRNA vaccine" above - there are lots of vaccines under development right now, and mRNA ones are the only ones we expect to get this super-fast approach (others will obviously still be sped up, but not to this degree), since mRNA vaccines are very unlikely to cause any major side effects.

However, that timeline assumes everything goes smoothly. For one, mRNA vaccines don't have a lot of precedent, so there's a significantly lower chance compared to classical vaccine (deactivated virus cells) development that this will actually work.

There's also always the chance that the virus might mutate to a degree where any vaccine we develop becomes ineffective (there's very mixed data about its rate of mutation so far; it seems to be slower than other Covid viruses from what we can tell, but potentially not slow enough. If we don't get it completely eradicated before there is a major mutation, we're starting from almost-scratch.)

[timewarp]

4 hours ago, Woodworker1968 said:

Good thing this isn’t an outbreak of norovirus. That’s the bug that gives people the shits.

Although that would practically guarantee that people stay indoors...

[Howard]

I like Dreamer23's breakdown of the vaccine process. At the rate the virus spreads though, we might develop herd immunity before the vaccine becomes available.

[Dreamer23]

5 minutes ago, Howard said:

I like Dreamer23's breakdown of the vaccine process. At the rate the virus spreads though, we might develop herd immunity before the vaccine becomes available.

I really hope that's not going to be the case

The estimates for herd immunity for Covid-19 currently range from 80-95% of the population. Realistically it'll likely be at the higher end, given a reproductive rate of ~2.28

On top of that, consider the mortality rate. Admittedly, we don't have a good estimate for that yet. The latest WHO number (3.4%) is likely still an over-estimate of historic cases, given that it only related to confirmed cases, and our testing is currently so limited.

The most optimistic figures I've seen is ~1%, so let's run for that with our optimistic estimate.

 

80% of the global population - 1% of them dying... 7.8 billion * 0.8 * 0.01 - that's over 64 million people dying!!! 😮

And given that the mortality rate will likely significantly increase once we overwhelm our healthcare system, a far more likely rate would be 3-5%

With 95% and 3-5%, we're anywhere between 222 million and 370 million deaths.

Any of those three numbers is waaaay too high, so let's really help we can starve this thing long enough until we have a vaccine or effective treatment (and keep the health care system working below cap throughout)!!!

I really hate the whole social distancing as well, but right now it's our only real option to starve the virus long enough until we have better options.

[Anthracite_Impreza]

I'm just gonna keep hiding in my house and remind myself they can't force jabs on us like they are with confinement.

 

(no this isn't me being awkward, I'm genuinely starting to get scared of this with all the dictatorship going on)

[SorryNotSorry]

14 hours ago, Anthracite_Impreza said:

I'm just gonna keep hiding in my house and remind myself they can't force jabs on us like they are with confinement.

 

(no this isn't me being awkward, I'm genuinely starting to get scared of this with all the dictatorship going on)

As an autistic person, I'm acutely aware of how willingly the herd is going along with this.

[Guest]

They wouldn't have to force confinement if people had common sense. However, America is proving quite nicely that people do not. 

 

People are still having mass parties, people are mass gathering in churches, people are hugging each other out in public and in my area, the roads are still just as packed as ever. And, cases grow every day. While people also are dying, the hospitals are overrun and we lack the needed supplies to even keep up with it. 

 

Yeah, staying in your house sucks. But, it saves lives. And if the government doesn't enforce it, people will still be doing body shots off each others sweaty bodies, hugging, kissing and otherwise being idiots and only apologizing after they end up in the ICU on a ventilator with COVID-19 ... just like they are doing here. 

 

We will be confined until it slows enough to let the medical field catch up. Doctors and nurses are literally dying trying to save the people who refuse to follow the stay at home orders. Others are working 48 hour shifts, living at the hospital, not allowed near their kids. 

 

I'm all for the government confinement orders because without them, you get Florida. Not following the orders and going out doesn't just put you at risk, which I'd be fine if it was a Darwin thing, fine. But, it's putting EMTs, nurses, doctors, janitors and everyone else at risk. Like the bus driver dying from COVID after sick people got on his bus. Wanting your freedom to socialize over other peoples lives is why the governments have to get involved. 

[Philip027]

Quote

I don't understand the logic of hoarding toilet paper... It literally takes me more than a year to go through ONE PACKAGE OF TOILET PAPER. I literally had some terrible TP for over an year and half... When I finally finished it, I was like "FINALLY! NEVER MAKING THAT MISTAKE AGAIN!" Like seriously, how much TP do these crazies use?

I was about to say you must be full of shit, but evidently that can't be the case.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Philip027 said:

I was about to say you must be full of shit, but evidently that can't be the case.

Some people only use like one sheet per BM... sounds messy to me but *shrug*

[Philip027]

Yeah, not to get too graphic here, but that would absolutely not work for me.

[Skycaptain]

Wonder how long before criminals operate in pairs, then claim their arrests are illegal because the police breached social distancing laws? 😋😋

[Guest]

1 hour ago, Skycaptain said:

Wonder how long before criminals operate in pairs, then claim their arrests are illegal because the police breached social distancing laws? 😋😋

I saw a picture of a guy holding up a sign that said. "I have covid-19" when pulled over by a police officer, so you know someone will try.

[timewarp]

There's definitely a whole range of new crimes emerging that I didn't think possible. A guy in Dorset was arrested for licking vegetables in a supermarket. Others have tried to set 5G transmitters on fire because they believe the coronavirus is spread through the 5G network.

[Anthracite_Impreza]

7 minutes ago, timewarp said:

Others have tried to set 5G transmitters on fire because they believe the coronavirus is spread through the 5G network.

As far as conspiracy theories go, this is fucking spectacular. No danger of us getting it then, cos we're still struggling with 4G 🙃

[Gloomy]

I’m one of those paranoid people who sometimes thinks someone could try to kidnap me or break into my house, but lately I’ve been thinking of anyone tries that I’ll just tell them I have coronavirus and they’ll run away. 😈

[Skycaptain]

3 hours ago, timewarp said:

There's definitely a whole range of new crimes emerging that I didn't think possible. A guy in Dorset was arrested for licking vegetables in a supermarket. Others have tried to set 5G transmitters on fire because they believe the coronavirus is spread through the 5G network.

Could be worse, given what a bloke was caught doing to the radiator grille of a Ford Edsel 😋😋

[Whore*of*Mensa]

The person running my local fb page has turned vigilante and spends her time posting photos of people breaking social distancing rules!

[Lonemathsytoothbrushthief]

1 hour ago, Whore*of*Mensa said:

The person running my local fb page has turned vigilante and spends her time posting photos of people breaking social distancing rules!

Considering police, border control assholes or whatever else who are trying to enforce social distancing rules don't necessarily follow them themselves, vigilantism is a good idea right now.

[Whore*of*Mensa]

3 minutes ago, Lonemathsytoothbrushthief said:

Considering police, border control assholes or whatever else who are trying to enforce social distancing rules don't necessarily follow them themselves, vigilantism is a good idea right now.

Yeah...and we’ve got political advisors and politicians telling people to do one thing while blatantly going and doing the opposite! Everyone thinks that the rules are for other people, not them!

[Lonemathsytoothbrushthief]

25 minutes ago, Whore*of*Mensa said:

Yeah...and we’ve got political advisors and politicians telling people to do one thing while blatantly going and doing the opposite! Everyone thinks that the rules are for other people, not them!

Yep! This is why I think people need to ignore what the government is telling them except for how it affects the resources available to them, and look at the evidence for what sort of risk they're facing.

[Abigail Rose]

The problem is how long people will hold themselves at home. I see the stores full all day where I am. Scary results may be just days away. This whole ordeal is totally rotten.