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Social distancing in USA: It's finally working.


AspieAlly613

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AspieAlly613

After weeks of coronavirus spreading at a rate of roughly tenfold per eight days, we're finally seeing a consistent pattern of a slower growth rate.  Over the past 5 days, we've seen a much slower growth rate, prorated to a growth of tenfold every 13 days.

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Funny what happens when you actually listen to scientists. Thankfully the stories of people still congregating are outliers, but it is a first step. We just need to keep it up for a couple of weeks, which is the real hard part. I hope everyone is OK paying rent and bills this week, it is going to be close for way too many people, even if they do eventually get some relief.

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RoseGoesToYale

It's not working in these parts🙃🔫 Even if people are travelling less, they're still going out close to home and congregating or not staying 6 feet away from others.

 

Wrong DeSantis finally shut down some counties in the south of the state. He still refuses to shut beaches and borders and issue an enforceable stay-at-home order. In my city there's a set of gentle "guidelines" called a "safer-at-home" initiative which doesn't have a "curfew" but merely "suggests" not going to work unless you're essential and staying right where you are.

 

Even in the best case scenario, people forget... these are Floridians. Natives have an ingrained I-don't-give-a-f*ck attitude about literally anything. They don't give a f*ck about hurricanes (if they did, they wouldn't all panic buy water and generators at the last possible second before the big one hits), they don't give a f*ck about gators, they don't give a f*ck about Florida Man, oppressive heat, cockroaches in every building (yes, even the bougie ones), hanging chads, red tide, or air potatoes. They do, however, give a f*ck about Pub subs, because they're amazing.

 

Now, we could force Floridians to stay at home and put the cops out there to make sure it's enforced. But these are Floridians. They own guns. They believe in unmitigated personal freedom and the well-regulated militia. If anybody thinks their personal freedom is being taken away by the government, they will exercise the 2nd Amendment. People will go out in sheer defiance of the authorities because that's just what this state does.

 

I also don't see DeSantis shutting it all down unless our case and death total surpasses New York and Trump tells him to do something. I think there's a distinct possibility DeSantis is being paid under the table by Trump to be his lackey, upholding what he says so it makes whatever action Trump takes look legitimate. In fact, per this article:

Spoiler

Trump has richly rewarded DeSantis for towing the White House’s line. The president showered DeSantis with praise at a Saturday press briefing, declaring: “He’s a very talented guy. He’s a very good governor. Everyone loves him. He’s doing a fantastic job for Florida.” The federal government has also given Florida adequate medical supplies from the national stockpile while denying them to states with Democratic governors. According to the Washington Post, for instance, Maine asked for a half-million N95 masks and received about 5 percent of what it requested. Florida, by contrast, requested 430,000 surgical masks, 180,000 N95 respirators, 82,000 face shields, and 238,000 gloves—and received it all within three days.

 

I think the only true course of action is to bribe Floridians to stay home with free Pub subs. 🤣

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Prufrock, but like, worse

Why is Florida so consistently awful. WE'RE LITERALLY THE OLD PEOPLE STATE WHYYYYY

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Anthracite_Impreza

Quite frankly I'm 100% against law-enforced curfews, way too dystopian for my liking. Call me a knobhead, but you just see if they revoke all their newfound controlling laws.

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56 minutes ago, Anthracite_Impreza said:

Quite frankly I'm 100% against law-enforced curfews, way too dystopian for my liking.

I'm with you on that much at least, but then again I've spent most of my life living under oppressive thumbs whose owners couldn't be pleased.

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Anthracite_Impreza
4 minutes ago, Jon A. said:

I'm with you on that much at least, but then again I've spent most of my life living under oppressive thumbs whose owners couldn't be pleased.

I've spent my entire life living with a controlling bastard, I have no wish to have the government do the same.

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I think it's still too early to call it a victory. The curb is finally flat when the amount of new cases equals the number of people getting better, that is no growth in total cases, that is that the amount of total cases remain the same for at least a few days.

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6 hours ago, Zagadka said:

Funny what happens when you actually listen to scientists.

Yes, these are the people who we should listen to and not "influencers" on social media and "posts of instagram".

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well, that's winning a battle, but the crux of the war is immunity. if we stopped it in it's tracks tomorrow it has spread so much that it is likely to be able to flare up again sometime down the road and be just as much of a problem. but then we would be weighing isolating against an already stressed economy and people thinking about how we might be doing this every year.

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Tenfold per eight days was more likely caused by us catching up on testing - while Covid-19 is incredibly good at spreading, a reproductive number of ~2.28 would likely not account for that. 

I'd say given our lacking testing, it is still too early to determine how well those measures have been working. 

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10 hours ago, Howard said:

I think it's still too early to call it a victory.

I was recently in Hong Kong, and that city is a cautionary tale for declaring victory too early.

 

This is clearly an illness that will be here for a long while. Hot weather will not affect it.

 

People need to realize and accept that, until its gone, that social distancing should be here to remain.

 

The above city hit a long lull in infectious spikes, that it relaxed some of its strictly enforced rules, only to be hit with a massive second wave of infections.

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In China cases are increasing again 

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Phantasmal Fingers
41 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

In China cases are increasing again 

There's no exit strategy from lock down without a vaccine. 😐 And who knows how long that'll take...

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1 minute ago, Moderne Jazzhanden said:

There's no exit strategy from lock down without a vaccine. 😐 And who knows how long that'll take...

If it's under 12-18 months I'd be surprised. Getting the vaccine will take less, but making enough doses is the time-taker 

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14 hours ago, Hornet Is Void said:

Why is Florida so consistently awful. WE'RE LITERALLY THE OLD PEOPLE STATE WHYYYYY

They went nuts years ago with the Terri Schiavo Case.  Now they seem to care less who dies.

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RoseGoesToYale
31 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

Hot weather will not affect it.

It does, just not to the effect that some people think. Viruses are made up of RNA, proteins and a fatty protective layer. Hot enough temperatures break down the fatty outer layer and denature the proteins making up the molecule, rendering the virus inactive (they can't "die", as they're not living organisms). That's why medical professionals recommend washing hands in soapy (the soap also helps break down fats) water that's 25°C/77°F or hotter.

 

But it depends on where you live, too. Summer in Florida is not the same as summer in Oregon, e.g. Here in summer the average high is 32°C/90°F, but that's just air temperature. Surfaces in direct sun like cars and tarmac can soar well above 38°C/100°F. Say someone with coronavirus coughed onto the hood of a car parked in the hot sun. That metal's probably at least 35 degrees hotter than the human body, hot enough to break down the fats and proteins making up the virus. However, if that same person coughs onto a counter in their kitchen during summer, it's still air conditioned in there and probably not dehumidified, the virus will stick around.

 

So hot enough weather can help break some of the virus down and slow transmission, as is the case with the flu seasons, but the virus doesn't go away and transmission increases again in the cooler months when conditions outside are more favorable to it.

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40 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

In China cases are increasing again 

Many if not the vast majority were from outside its borders. Same with Hong Kong.

 

They really relaxed some travel restrictions, and of course, students that were studying outside of their cities, flocked back home to be with their families (just to name one known scenario that caused the spike, out of several others). That then just spreads like wildfire, as you're not wearing protective masks with your kids.

 

Honestly, if we are to relax our airport restrictions, there must be a way to test masses of people within 15 minutes before they are allowed in. Stop things at the source.

 

Self-quarantine orders, are not realistic long term (many won't follow them). With such orders, you're asking me to take a two week vacation, plus two week unpaid leave in many cases. I'll just wait it out, will say most people.

 

Airports are the worst possible place to be in, in such settings.

 

I was in Hong Kong, never once did I worry for my health (if anything, how strict they are, made me feel insanely safe, compared to in Canada). I followed insanely strict hygiene practices, right down to having a mask removal and disinfection procedure, every single time I went out. This, along with cellphone, power bank, cords being sanitized with alcohol to name a couple extremes many were taking to avoid getting sick.

 

I only felt at risk, at the airport. The moment I got in Canada, I went from laughing at those telling me I was taking a huge health risk in going there, to thinking: "Fuck, this is where I'm going to get sick.."

 

Landed in Canada, and realized why so many people were bringing illness back home. Way too lax, and you're in restricted quarters with potentially sick people. None of which are wearing masks. Many of which, were coughing in crowds of people, without covering up. None of which are practicing social distancing (or at least weren't, then).

 

Social distancing is kind of useless on an aircraft, if infected passengers aren't wearing masks.

 

The US easing travel restrictions with this in mind, will bring home huge additional waves.

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If the statement by Michael Gove yesterday is to be believed, then around 2 million Britains have had this, yet we only have 25000 official cases. Problem is because the effects vary from symptomless to sniffles/cough to feel yuck to need medical assistance to dead its hard to track the real infection rate. 

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6 minutes ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

However, if that same person coughs onto a counter in their kitchen during summer, it's still air conditioned in there and probably not dehumidified, the virus will stick around.

You're right on how hotter weather could slow transmission down if still socially distancing.

 

However, many hot and humid climate countries around the world have seen dramatic spikes in infections. Reality, are some jobs make it literally impossible to socially distance.

 

Summer weather won't get rid of covid-19, like Trump seems to believe it will. This is a different type of beast than a regular flu which is harder to transmit.

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andreas1033
15 hours ago, AspieAlly613 said:

After weeks of coronavirus spreading at a rate of roughly tenfold per eight days, we're finally seeing a consistent pattern of a slower growth rate.  Over the past 5 days, we've seen a much slower growth rate, prorated to a growth of tenfold every 13 days.

You know this how?

 

Covid19, has probably been killing americans for at least 2 months now(the cdc person virtually admitted this i think 2 weeks back). They only started reporting the deaths 3 weeks back. In real world, many more thousands of died from it in america, before they started producing numbers, due to testing.

 

How this virus works, and how long it takes to incubate, people have no way of knowing, how far its spread.

 

Countries are downplaying there numbers. Like brazil, you do not hear about there numbers, but brazil has a very high number, but the way they are not testing, means they are not reporting it.

 

Look at news reports, saying loads of people that went on spring break, now have covid19.

 

For america, this is only really starting.

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AspieAlly613
16 hours ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

air potatoes.

um...what?  

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RoseGoesToYale
1 hour ago, AspieAlly613 said:

um...what?  

Don't eat 'em.

 

Also, I had no idea all the air potato plants in Florida are female and asexual. :lol:

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Anthracite_Impreza

This virus is never gonna go away, it's here to stay now just like flu. So if we're cooped up until it's "gone", we might as well just shoot ourselves now.

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I'm unsure if the number is really going down; the health department in my area mentioned that the number of cases in the state was only low due to a national shortage for labs of the chemicals to test for the virus and that there were over a thousand backlog tests waiting to be tested.

 

Now that they've recently mentioned having more access to the chemicals this week--and have been able to clear some of the backlog--the number of cases has increased.

 

Not everyone has been practicing social distancing; groups of travelers still decided to pack some beaches.

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*stares intensely at new york who actually saw huge death count numbers in the past few days*

Anyway, it really depends on where you are and what your specific job is. For example, my boyfriend and I had to go by our local big retail store to pick up a few things. 30% of the people (AT LEAST) had some kind of mask or other PPE on (personal protective equipment), but since I work in healthcare....majority of these people DO NOT know the proper way to put them on, how to wear them, and how to remove them safely. 

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4 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

yet we only have 25000 official cases.

I can only speak for my province, but many are being turned aside here, if they have mild symptoms (from testing). Essentially, go home and self-quarantine, being the advice if one isn't requiring emergency treatment, but is experiencing most of the go to symptoms.

 

When you factor this in, and the other places where the same practice is employed, people need to realize that the number of "infected", is far higher, considering.

 

The death percentages you see listed, are highly inaccurate as well, as don't factor in all infected individuals or even close.

 

Wish more news outlets would mention this, vs showing an unrealistically high death rate with zero context.

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SorryNotSorry

Social distancing isn't so traumatic to me because I was never a very social person to begin with. Even when I go to a store, I just want to buy my stuff and get on with it... shopping was never something I thought of as a chance to chat.

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19 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

If the statement by Michael Gove yesterday is to be believed, then around 2 million Britains have had this, yet we only have 25000 official cases. Problem is because the effects vary from symptomless to sniffles/cough to feel yuck to need medical assistance to dead its hard to track the real infection rate. 

Especially as long as the government isn't even capable of providing tests to NHS frontline staff.

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