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Is the situation about the Coronavirus worrying?


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On 3/4/2020 at 5:22 PM, Gloomy said:

As someone who loathes crowded places, I think it would actually be quite nice if less people left their houses because of all this. Maybe I’ll actually be able to find a parking spot when I go to the beach. 😁

This is a dream scenario, but I got to see the domino effect of it while in Hong Kong recently. 

 

Literally, some of their iconic malls, being ghost towns. Took videos and pictures and you would honestly think I was there right at opening, but would be peak hours. 

 

Tumbleweeds being the only thing missing, when going to Disney World, or other theme parks. Great for taking pictures! For the economy, not so much. 

 

Ferry rides that are empty. Best pictures I have ever gotten. 

 

I always got seats on their subway, which is like the Loch Ness monster with a regular economy. It's all fables, and make believe as it just doesn't exist. You're either crammed like a sardine, or crammed like a sardine. Make a choice. 

 

You really start to see the crippling blow, talking to street vendors that are more aggressive than usual. 

 

Some who would rather sell at cost and at least sell something, than actually try to make a profit. 

 

Many businesses still open, are just facade. Some are bleeding so much money, they are begging the government for help. 

 

You know your economy is bad, when iconic brands like Prada are begging for relief vs folding their flagship stores and the job loss that goes with it. 

 

Seen so many job vacancies, or dramatic cuts to hours. 

 

So many foreign workers, so it's a huge domino effect across many economies. 

 

Am starting to feel it here, with my suppliers that have Chinese manufacturers. Backlogs are crazy. 

 

Not sure if fuel costs are related, if so this is the lone benefit as I have not seen fuel at under 1$ per liter in years o_O

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On 3/4/2020 at 5:40 PM, Skycaptain said:

Britain's are doing what we do best - panic buying. Shelves are being stripped of rice, pasta and other staples, along with soap, cleaners etc. 

Aren't your cupboards already full after the Brexit?

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26 minutes ago, Saphoune said:

Aren't your cupboards already full after the Brexit?

This just gives everyone the excuse to go shopping again. Wait until Easter, when shops are actually closed for one day and see the nation really panic 

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The most worrying part about it seems to be the panic its causing, rather than the virus itself :(

Seattle feels like a ghost town, and my employer has told us that we are all supposed to work from home for the next couple of weeks (and indeed almost no one showed up at the office)

The rush on basic groceries doesn't help either :(

Man, I so hope this frenzy is going to die down soon...

 

We should obviously all make sure we are safe, and don't spread the infection to others (particularly more vulnerable groups)

But dooming it as the end of the world is only going to put more strain onto the system, and leaves vulnerable groups even more susceptible to bad outcomes.

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I agree that I'm more worried about the panic, not the virus itself. It's mostly because I've seen a lot of epidemics come through--swine flu and Ebola, for instance--and the panic was what made me panic before it all turned to naught. It's good that so many precautions are being taken and people are taking this seriously, but I wish the media wasn't turning this into a giant circus. >_>

 

Also, I came across this article on Facebook today, and it made me feel better. Somebody commented that "That means 49% aren't recovering," and wasn't a good statistic, but he was wrong on one point: it means they haven't recovered yet, not that they won't

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The British government's latest idea. Ban the over 70's from going to major sporting events. Not saying "Older people are more at risk of complications, and should maybe think twice about what they do" but actually saying "no, you can't do something you've done every week for 70 years" 

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1 hour ago, Skycaptain said:

The British government's latest idea. Ban the over 70's from going to major sporting events. Not saying "Older people are more at risk of complications, and should maybe think twice about what they do" but actually saying "no, you can't do something you've done every week for 70 years" 

I'm really puzzled with this... It won't prevent the spreading of the virus, merely delay a few days the infection of the most sensitive groups.

Either cancel public sporting events or ask the 70+ to stay at home like hermits, forbidding them shopping and family gatherings because the young folks will go support their soccer team as usual.

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So, here are some numbers on the death toll. In Italy 197 people infected have died so far. That corresponds to 4.25% of those confirmed to have contracted the virus, which seems quite high. The statistics also say the average age of the people who died is 81 and 72% are male. Now, to put that in perspective, the average life expectancy in Italy is 83.4 and that for Italian men in particular is 81.1.

 

This may seem harsh, but based on these numbers the people who've died in Italy so far were more or less ready for it. If the Corona virus hadn't triggered it, it would have been something else. Of course it's sad for the individuals concerned, but it's part of life.

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3 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

The British government's latest idea. Ban the over 70's from going to major sporting events. Not saying "Older people are more at risk of complications, and should maybe think twice about what they do" but actually saying "no, you can't do something you've done every week for 70 years" 

This is probably because they are more at risk of needing treatment if they get infected. The underlying problem is that the NHS doesn't have sufficient resources. This is also why the government keeps saying they want to delay the outbreak until summer. It has nothing to do with the Corona virus itself, it's the simple fact that in winter the hospitals are packed and in summer there is more capacity.

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I’ll probably catch it off @timewarp like I’ve caught the last 3 viruses I’ve had 😛 

 

Overall, I’m a nurse. A nurse who will be commuting to a London hospital, I’m not worried about it. I’m more worried about the mass hysteria.

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If the NHS gets overwhelmed, these over 70's could end up dying horribly at home without any medical help.  I lost my parents to pneumonia and believe me, it isn't a nice way to go, and they were being looked after in care homes.  That is why we need to slow the rate at which the virus spreads.  I don't especially like this government but it is trying to do the right thing, following the advice of the medical professionals. 

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36 minutes ago, Mz Terry said:

I don't especially like this government but it is trying to do the right thing, following the advice of the medical professionals. 

Same. I'm fairly certain they are following the advice of Public Health England and similar organisations. Even if this specific virus is new, the plans for this kind of situation have been prepared over many years. The people who elaborate them tend to be calm and competent people and I fully trust them.

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Whore*of*Mensa
35 minutes ago, timewarp said:

Same. I'm fairly certain they are following the advice of Public Health England and similar organisations. Even if this specific virus is new, the plans for this kind of situation have been prepared over many years. The people who elaborate them tend to be calm and competent people and I fully trust them.

There’s a research protocol that has been approved since the bird flu outbreak, and is just being put into place now. 

 

Its definitely the case that plans have been in place  for a long time.

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Yes that's something I don't understand about some people saying the government's response is driven by panic, a response to the media etc. The plans for situations like this have been in place for years and are based on the best advice of epidemiologists... it's not just the government flailing around in fear, it's a thoroughly thought out evidence based response plan.

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Except in the US under Trump. :P That's based on hunches and "feelings".

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I'm still surprised at the economic damage. So many things have been canceled, and the outbreak isn't really that bad, potentials aside. If only people paid that much attention to other issues, or even the common flu.

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5 hours ago, daveb said:

Except in the US under Trump. :P That's based on hunches and "feelings".

Just like his net worth. High when he's selling himself as yugely successful, nil when he's being sued for divorce.

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7 hours ago, Zagadka said:

I'm still surprised at the economic damage. So many things have been canceled, and the outbreak isn't really that bad, potentials aside. If only people paid that much attention to other issues, or even the common flu.

Its the potential that is causing the huge reaction.  Its much easier to stop something like this early on.  Once it is widely distributed in the population there is almost nothing you can do until an vaccine is available, and that takes a long time.   

 

China did manage to contain  it through draconian measures, but no other country seems to be succeeding.   

 

So far only a tiny number of people are infected, but it seems to spread as easily as flu and kills at least 10X as often, maybe a lot more (1% of healthy adults, which is probably > 100X flu)  10s of millions of deaths around the world is quite possible.  I think its worth doing what we can to contain it.  

 

I've been watching the new cases in the US.  The number doubles every 2 days.  

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Keaton always said, "I don't believe in God, but I'm afraid of him." Well, I believe in God and the only thing that scares me is Keyser Soze.

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yes it does bother me i have heart issues (heart failure, A fib due to birth defect) with underline asthma but i can not panic about it, it will add more stress that probably not good for me as well. all i can do is watch the news , see who has what and where and dress accordingly meaning i see a lot of clear rubber gloves and face maskes in my future catching the bus to work and alot washing hands and the politics and finacial  agenda of it all gives me a head ache. purel hand sanitizer for example was  $2.25 is now $35 dollars for 1 small bottle. when they find a cure or vaccine how much will that cost  and thats a year n half away where has all the smart doctor gone ,to solve this sooner ..( sorry  angry ramblings) but not😠

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In Germany so far there are 1150 confirmed Corona virus cases and 2 (two!) deaths. Anybody any ideas how that fits into the big picture of 2-4% death rates we keep hearing from elsewhere?

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andreas1033
3 minutes ago, timewarp said:

In Germany so far there are 1150 confirmed Corona virus cases and 2 (two!) deaths. Anybody any ideas how that fits into the big picture of 2-4% death rates we keep hearing from elsewhere?

My answer to you would be

 

Its only really starting, and you have no idea of the numbers that have it, or the deaths.

 

The 3.4% the who came out with, is what they have seen so far, from countries that were further along in this process. The death rate in any country, may be determined by many things.

 

If you come from germany, your gov is very much a gov, whom likes to not want to cause panic in the public, or really tell the public everything. Probably they are holding back data, as the german gov does, as they are big on not wanting to cause panic.

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Whereas in Britain the government want to spout as much as possible, as this is deflecting from the mess they're making of running the country. 

 

Ought we be looking at the cruise industry through. Several thousand people in a confined space for days on end. 

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49 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

Ought we be looking at the cruise industry through. Several thousand people in a confined space for days on end. 

In an epidemiogological sense that's kind of a dream situation. It's the same pool of people for many days and it's easy to trace back. Compare that to using the London Tube - that's essentially microbiological speed dating. By the time someone thinks they might have caught the dang virus, it will be impossible to know who else might have caught it. It's quite probable that a significant proportion of those people won't be in London, maybe not even the UK by the time (if) it's found out.

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Forest Spirit

One thing that troubles me personally is hearing voices of panic on one side and people who don't care one bit and think that their desire to enjoy life (go to concerts, bars, red zones) or not miss out on things if they're sick (school, work) is more important. I've seen enough people in the past go to uni courses while having the flu.

My family lives in northern Italy so I am a bit worried, and I kind of feel as if that is triggered by this discrepancy in "taking it serious" mentioned above😑

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