Is the situation about the Coronavirus worrying?

[- Saph -]

I found the WHO situation reports really helpful to understand how far we are in the epidemic. Unfortunately some (international) transmission mecanism have not been discovered yet so I do think that the virus is more worrying now.

 

The masks are not yet relevant in most of Europe, if you buy any, keep them preciously for later. Most masks are single use and should be worn while following the instructions. Currently in the industry most suppliers have shortage of masks, which could also mean stopping some industrial activities (production of chemicals or agroalimentary) if stock is managed poorly.

[Skycaptain]

https://www.thelancet.com/journals/langas/article/PIIS2468-1253(20)30048-0/fulltext

 

There's also as the above article suggests, more ways of transmission than aerosol. 

Also there seem to be asymptomatic carriers, hence cluster outbreaks, as a carrier spreads the virus around their locality without actually becoming ill themselves 

[SithAzathoth WinterDragon]

Yes and no.

A given virus that breaks out may spread more in the location it began by how it adapts to it, and once it is carried by a host to a new climate. It'll take the virus weeks if not months to adapt to the new environment, it's cell wall will have to build to adapt to it's new location. Each country it's in now will vary on the altitude, weather, air quality, water access, how clean each country is and how wealthy they are and if they have the equipment and medicine that may help curb the virus in advance, right now there's research going to see what can be created to stop infection, and cure it.

The US and China are both urban which the virus already is used to urban locations, however the US has a better medical system and medicine than China.

WHO, and CDC have articles on the topic and how to avoid getting sick.  

[the great acescape]

Yes, but also quite frankly if you live in the continental U.S. I'd be far more concerned about our shockingly deadly flu season.

[Janus the Fox]

No, the media is or feels they're over reporting a mild epidemic.  The deaths don't seem out of the ordinary for any flu virus to me, it's seen as a same pattern of infection as most flu as well.  Researching Coronavirus itself, suggests this particular virus is common year after year.  Unless it mutates, becomes more contagious and life threatening on a much higher scale as already seen, eventually treatments and vaccines have time to develop... Like any other routine flu.

[Zerο]

Every major health organization is raising red flags for concerns but yes, do your own 'research' and fall back on pretty quotes

 

For fuck's sake

[Acing It]

On 2/24/2020 at 2:03 PM, Saphoune said:

The masks are not yet relevant in most of Europe, if you buy any, keep them preciously for later. Most masks are single use and should be worn while following the instructions. Currently in the industry most suppliers have shortage of masks, which could also mean stopping some industrial activities (production of chemicals or agroalimentary) if stock is managed poorly.

I found this about face masks and I tend to agree. They can just as much be a hindrance and give a false sense of security as they can help. And having worked in the medical sector, keeping one on for a long time is hard and not very convenient at all. The ones with filters that really close around the mouth and nose are better but are much more uncomfortable and they still leave your eyes uncovered, which is another way in for viruses. I don't think there is any need to panic but I feel that good hygiene is much more important. I always keep a small bottle of antiback with me in case I have to shake someone's hand, working with the public.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-51205344

 

edit: btw, if you look at Amazon, they seem to be all sold out too.

 

[Guest]

Some are saying it will be impossible to stop this from becoming a full global pandemic. 

 

Some countries are seeing their infection rates skyrocket. 

 

What makes this so dangerous, is the ease with which it is transmitted. 

 

We are also seeing some countries panic about China, omitting to realize this likely has spread far further than statistics show due to the lack of means to properly diagnose in some countries. 

 

I'm from Canada and we're ill equipped for this, as are many other countries. 

 

No need to be alarmed as all symptoms are treatable. 

[daveb]

Saw an uber/lyft driver driving around with a mask on today in my area. (just an observation; no judgement)

 

What I do judge is the stock market panic over the virus. Seems like an over-reaction to me. And a good way to make things worse than they would be without irrational emotion taking over.

[gisiebob]

6 minutes ago, daveb said:

Saw an uber/lyft driver driving around with a mask on today in my area. (just an observation; no judgement)

 

What I do judge is the stock market panic over the virus. Seems like an over-reaction to me. And a good way to make things worse than they would be without irrational emotion taking over.

it's almost...as if the infrastructure that we chose to form is not conducive to a stable society

[- Saph -]

1 hour ago, daveb said:

What I do judge is the stock market panic over the virus. Seems like an over-reaction to me. And a good way to make things worse than they would be without irrational emotion taking over.

I don't believe in a long term impact (yet).

However supply of car parts and other products massively sourced from China is getting more difficult.

[Guest]

It seems comparable to the swine flu or SARS. In China, 45,000 or so people have the virus but when you think about how many people there are living in China that's actually not that much. So considering that the initial outbreak was in December, to me that says that they've managed to do a pretty good job of keeping it under control. I think it won't spread as far in the U.S. because the U.S. is just better about keeping viruses contained. Also something else to keep in mind is that there are now 80,000+ cases of it worldwide but the death rate is MUCH lower, it's at 2,000+ people currently.

[Zagadka]

I wasn't worried about this, but now that Pence is in command under Trump's tutelage, I am. I just feel like they will somehow make it catastrophic.

 

Still, all we can really do is maintain hygiene until there is a vaccine (that a lot of people won't be able to afford, which neutralizes most of  the point of having a vaccine)

[Dr. Beat]

The U.S. already has a few cases and it's expected to spread. I live near the West Coast and work at a zoo and we're going through zoonotic disease protocol training in case it gets here. It's not quite as scary as it seems, but it's not fun at all. I'm actually a little concerned for myself because my immune system is currently compromised. 

[timewarp]

I have yet to see conclusive evidence that this virus is more dangerous than a common cold. Unless proven otherwise I'm working under the assumption that there is a massive overreaction going on. I'm quite impressed though by the handful of pharma companies that have managed to get vaccines ready for human testing in this short period of time already (expected to begin in April). This is a *massive* improvement over the time it took to develop a vaccine for SARS.

[Zagadka]

I think it is not terribly fatal, but easily transmitted. I'd still be more afraid of the flu if I didn't already have a flu shot.

 

All the news is talking about is how you have to shave your beard to wear a mask, and a lot of people are thinking... well, see you in hell, then.

[gisiebob]

56 minutes ago, timewarp said:

I have yet to see conclusive evidence that this virus is more dangerous than a common cold. Unless proven otherwise I'm working under the assumption that there is a massive overreaction going on. I'm quite impressed though by the handful of pharma companies that have managed to get vaccines ready for human testing in this short period of time already (expected to begin in April). This is a *massive* improvement over the time it took to develop a vaccine for SARS.

its not more dangerous on an individual level, it how it spreads that is what concerns government and health orgs

[Skycaptain]

Be(ij)ing realistic. It seems that people can be carriers whilst either asymptomatic or for a week without developing symptoms. The symptoms vary from similar to a heavy cold, similar to a normal flu, to dead. The mortality rate and health status of those who are dying isn't dissimilar to flu. If this was a new strain of flu would there be this level of hysteria in the news media? 

I can see in the long term that people who have been exposed to this virus having their immune system better prepared when the next mutation comes along. 

[timewarp]

8 hours ago, gisiebob said:

its not more dangerous on an individual level, it how it spreads that is what concerns government and health orgs

Do you have any hard evidence that it spreads faster than a common cold?

[timewarp]

8 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

The symptoms vary from similar to a heavy cold, similar to a normal flu, to dead.

Even that is a bit of an exaggeration. There can be almost no symptoms, or those of a mild cold. These cases just don't get mentioned that often, because, you know, media.

[Homer]

Apparently German Railways is prepared! (We always are, unless something unexpected happens ) There's a guideline for passengers what to do if there is a suspected case of cortana. At least that's what an article in some local paper says. I work there and nobody told me about these guidelines yet. Newspapers aren't dead 

[Homer]

Here's a video of Chinese police dealing with Cortana

[gisiebob]

3 hours ago, timewarp said:

Do you have any hard evidence that it spreads faster than a common cold?

I am not a government or health organisation.

[Guest]

7 hours ago, timewarp said:

Do you have any hard evidence that it spreads faster than a common cold?

The only evidence, is the ease of transmission. 

 

A flu will kiĺl a lesser percentage of people. 

 

The average person with a flu, will typically infect less people around them. 

 

That is why this one is a bit more concerning, not due to the symptoms which have shown to be milder.

[timewarp]

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

The only evidence, is the ease of transmission. 

 

A flu will kiĺl a lesser percentage of people. 

 

The average person with a flu, will typically infect less people around them. 

 

That is why this one is a bit more concerning, not due to the symptoms which have shown to be milder.

But my whole point is that we mostly know about the severe cases of this virus, not the ones that go unnoticed because the symptoms are mild. So of course there is a theoretical possibility that this virus could actually be more deadly than a flu, but unless you do a thorough laboratory analysis of the entire global population I doubt it's possible to come to this conclusion without a massive margin of error.

[Guest]

On 2/28/2020 at 12:55 PM, timewarp said:

there is a theoretical possibility that this virus could actually be more deadly than a flu

Common sense also point to this. 

 

IE there are no vaccines. This alone puts further people at risk if not contained.

 

The ease of transmission.

 

The fact they have detected this strain can survive on surfaces for a significant amount of time. 

 

Some can intubate this and have zero symptoms. 

 

Also if you look at the death toll, you notice a higher ratio. 

 

Common sense shows that if spread the same manner as influenza, it would have far more catastrophic results regarding death toll.

 

You can base on the symptoms that this is potentially deadlier. 

[uhtred]

On 2/28/2020 at 12:51 AM, timewarp said:

Do you have any hard evidence that it spreads faster than a common cold?

https://www.ijidonline.com/article/S1201-9712(20)30091-6/fulltext

 

and less technical https://www.livescience.com/coronavirus-myths.html

 

It looks to be a bit more infectious than the flu.   In a bad flu year, 40 million people in the US are infected.

 

The fatality rate per infection is around 1% based on the diamond princess data (those passengers may have been less healthy due to age than the average american, but they were also wealthier and so had better prior health care).  Not clear how it balances.

 

If it is as infectious as flu we could have 40 million cases in the US and half a million deaths.  World wide it could be more then ten million dead.  

 

Its not the end of the world but it has the potential to be extremely serious.  Its not out of line with other plagues, https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_epidemics  which have killed millions in past epidemics.  Its just been a while since we've faced something this dangerous and many people have forgotten. 

 

 

[Skycaptain]

4 hours ago, uhtred said:

 been a while since we've faced something this dangerous and many people have forgotten. 

 

 

More to the point, during previous pandemics the media weren't whipping everyone into a hysterical frenzy, and politicians weren't threatening to impose Orwellian restrictions on the population. 

[daveb]

4 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

More to the point, during previous pandemics the media weren't whipping everyone into a hysterical frenzy, and politicians weren't threatening to impose Orwellian restrictions on the population. 

I don't think that is true. The media (as if it's one monolithic thing?) maybe didn't have the same reach or impact, but I'd guess that in the days of "yellow journalism" or other time periods any media that was around would be making a big deal of any plague or pandemic. And politicians or whoever ran things would be imposing restrictions. I have seen stories about quarantines, plague towns and travel restrictions, and even worse measures taken.

 

It could be argued that people are over-reacting in the current case, but I doubt it's any worse than in previous cases. And there's always the difficulty of balancing between being too cautious and restrictive and being too loose and letting things get much worse than they might have otherwise. If things don't get too bad people will complain that all of the measures were unnecessary, but those same measures could be what keeps things from getting too bad. (I think back to something like the Y2K issue - it didn't get too bad, because people worked to make sure it didn't, but people who weren't involved in that effort didn't see that, they just saw that it didn't appear to live up to the fears)

[SithLord]

I feel like it's an overreaction, but possibly a good one. If people are worried, they're more likely to be careful about washing their hands, people around them coughing, etc. It will also lead to panic-buying like with the masks that don't help much unless you get the good shit, and some people with food. (Also a local grocery store in my area was almost out of rice halfway through the day. Maybe they were just slow on restocking the shelves, but still, this is Japan! I work at a school surrounded by rice fields and have many by my apartment. How are they almost out of rice?!)