Jump to content

Is the situation about the Coronavirus worrying?


communityabed

Recommended Posts

Britain has around 500 000 NHS workers. As of this morning less than 2000 have been screened!! 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I've just read that the UK is aiming at ramping up the number of daily tests from currently 12750 to 100000 in a "small number of weeks". Let's assume the number is really small, like two weeks. Then the UK can just about keep up its level of testing if the number of cases only doubles every ~4.7 days. Based on the available statistics this seems wildly optimistic. Assuming a more realistic target of 6 weeks to get to that level of testing, the government would keep up with the spread of the virus if the number of cases doesn't double more often than every two weeks, which of course is completely unrealistic.

 

So I think it's fair to say the UK government won't catch up on the testing and at this point it doesn't really matter how hard they try (and in my view they don't show any signs of seriously trying at all).

Link to post
Share on other sites

If you're tired of bad news about Cortana, click here.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Abigail Rose

It is most uncertain times. So many lives are already changed by this event. I hope we can bring ourselves back from this crisis and be better prepared in the future. I see so many hurting people while I am working nonstop. I was just getting to feel like I could work on my happiness and suddenly again that has to be on hold while I now have so many that need help. I am sure whatever happens is out of my control but it totally sucks. I feel like it is my destiny, to be just out of reach of my own happiness. I miss my time getting to know all of you better and sharing cool thoughts, ideas and passions. Some day again maybe. Be safe friends.   ❤️

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, timewarp said:

I've just read that the UK is aiming at ramping up the number of daily tests from currently 12750 to 100000 in a "small number of weeks". Let's assume the number is really small, like two weeks. Then the UK can just about keep up its level of testing if the number of cases only doubles every ~4.7 days. Based on the available statistics this seems wildly optimistic. Assuming a more realistic target of 6 weeks to get to that level of testing, the government would keep up with the spread of the virus if the number of cases doesn't double more often than every two weeks, which of course is completely unrealistic.

 

So I think it's fair to say the UK government won't catch up on the testing and at this point it doesn't really matter how hard they try (and in my view they don't show any signs of seriously trying at all).

It's only really important in this lock-down period to test patients (to know how to treat them) and key-workers, particularly front-line NHS workers (to keep the NHS running at full capacity). The strategy of contact-tracing and testing has long sailed. Testing the whole population to isolate people with the virus but before they show symptoms would need to be repeated every week or so, wouldn't it? I can't see that happening.

 

The antigen test is the one the scientists/modelers really want. Then they can start to understand how the population is developing. The medics want enough of the detection tests for the reasons outlined above. I agree with you that the UK seems to have been caught on the hop with securing supplies of test raw materials. And the various spokespeople haven't been as open and honest in their briefings as I would have hoped. If they are hiding the truth on this, what else are they hiding, eh? 

Link to post
Share on other sites

I work in healthcare and have a grad degree in public health. For the USA, this is the situation right now:

1. 20% of the globe is on lockdown right now

2. In georgia (state where I live) we have around 5,000 infected and about 200 dead last I recall

3. New York lost about 30% of those initially infected. They died. 

4. Italy lost about 1000 people overnight because of this illness

5. We are running dangerously low on supplies. Healthcare workers that interact with patients are being forced to make "makeshift" supplies (bandanas, trash bags, etc.). 

6. Most people who wear some variation of PPE (personal protective equipment) like masks and/or gloves don't know the proper way to handle them (put on, stay on, how to take off, etc.) without risking contaminating themselves and/or cross-contaminating someone else. 

7. I went to the store where I live yesterday. We have a town population of about 9-10k. About 30% of those in the store had some variation of PPE on. 

 

Please get your information only from the CDC, WHO, and your personal primary care doctor. These are your best sources of information. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
10 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

Britain has around 500 000 NHS workers. As of this morning less than 2000 have been screened!! 

Is it that they are testing the ones that off in order to see if they can get them back working rather than the ones currently working? 

 

Hungary has used this to enact and enabling law to allow Orban to rule by decree. 

His first target: people that are trans gender

Fascist using this as an opportunity to go after minority groups :(

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, iff said:

Is it that they are testing the ones that off in order to see if they can get them back working rather than the ones currently working?

Not even that - it's only a fraction of those.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Whore*of*Mensa

I’m seeing some real anti-China rhetoric now, which I think Michael Gove started in a pathetic attempt to blame other people for how underprepared the UK Govt was for the pandemic 🙁

Link to post
Share on other sites
2 hours ago, Homer said:

today's episode

I wouldn't call that "people being people". That's more of distrust of authority/government, fanned by Trumpism and other insanity.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Families going shopping en-masse is one of my bug-bears. One parent stays at home with the kids, the other goes shopping alone. That's the way to reduce your chance of infecting someone from 4 to 1. It should NOT be seen as an opportunity for some vaguely social activity. It is an unfortunate necessity that should be done as efficiently and carefully as possible.

 

I have to admit that I'm in the long walk group, though. But I always have been, so I haven't modified my behaviour (except that I don't go at weekends any more so that people working from home have more room and I have less chance meeting them). So I do 2 long walks a week totally about 7 hours rather than go out every day for an hour. I reckon that's better exercise, too. 

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

@Moonman like your car battery, getting exercise helps keep your immune system in good health. walking, running and biking are not really a problem as long as you mind physical distancing.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Abigail Rose

I do not understand why so many people are going in the stores just to wander around. I know we are bent on how much luxury we have in the world but why not ensure the safety of all people against these times and just be better prepared. If all the people had gotten access to proper ppe and had not been forced to use poorly planned resources, then this might not have left it's town of origin. Where has the sense of compassion gone?

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
Tabula Rasa

It still seems as though no one knows exactly how this virus is transmitted. It's almost as if someone's walking along minding their business and it just lands on them. As if it's purely airborne. I need reassurance it's not.

Link to post
Share on other sites
Unleash the Echidnas
2 hours ago, Tabula Rasa said:

As if it's purely airborne. I need reassurance it's not.

Hi, maybe today's Goats and Soda discussion on the topic would be helpful. Or perhaps scary. Kinda depends on how you feel about probability distributions, I think.

 

Quote

The reality of aerosol generation, however, is far more complex than this "droplet" versus "airborne" dichotomy would suggest, says Marr. People produce a wide range of different-sized particles of mucus or saliva. These particles get smaller as they evaporate in the air and can travel different distances depending on the surrounding air conditions.

[...]

"Given what we know so far about this virus, 6 feet is OK if it's not crowded. But if you are in a room or somewhere where there is a person every 6 feet, then you could have enough virus in the air that I would be concerned," says Marr.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

 

 

Link to post
Share on other sites

On a positive note, some people are stepping up to help healthcare workers. @brbdogsonfire is using his 3D printer to make plastic face shields. So not masks, but the local hospital has asked for anything and everything people are willing to contribute. He said the schools my mom and sister work at tried to help with supplies, but I'm not sure if they worked or not. 

Link to post
Share on other sites
12 hours ago, iff said:

 

 

That sounds incredibly dumb and populist to me. Is his job of head of government not demanding enough for him? I would have thought his medical knowledge could help him to do a better job in managing the crisis and that's where it might be useful. On the other hand he's been out of the medical everyday work for quite a while now, so I doubt he will be much use on the frontline, especially if it's only one day a week.

Link to post
Share on other sites
14 hours ago, timewarp said:

That sounds incredibly dumb and populist to me. Is his job of head of government not demanding enough for him? I would have thought his medical knowledge could help him to do a better job in managing the crisis and that's where it might be useful. On the other hand he's been out of the medical everyday work for quite a while now, so I doubt he will be much use on the frontline, especially if it's only one day a week.

Not the front line but the article does state that it would be in his own area of experience (I think he had been a gp beforehand)  so I guess probably providing locum service

 

Edit - article clarified further

 

It's understood Mr Varadkar will carry out phone assessments to free up staff for frontline work.
Link to post
Share on other sites
njosnavelin

This is possibly the best overall explanation öf covid-19 and the handling of it.

 

Link to post
Share on other sites
9 hours ago, Homer said:

Knowing both the field of research and some of the people behind this study, I would be extremely cautious about the results. There are too many assumptions in this. It will be very hard to convince me that the uncertainty is less than at least 400-500%.

Link to post
Share on other sites

Could there be another interpretation of the results. Droplets expelled by coughing, sneezing and breathing are denser than air, but do take a little while to drop to ground level. Maybe "keep two seconds behind the person in front" (time might be different depending on research) would be a better hypothesis to investigate 

Link to post
Share on other sites
1 hour ago, Skycaptain said:

Could there be another interpretation of the results. Droplets expelled by coughing, sneezing and breathing are denser than air, but do take a little while to drop to ground level. Maybe "keep two seconds behind the person in front" (time might be different depending on research) would be a better hypothesis to investigate 

It's not wrong what you're saying, but my issue is not with the interpretation. It's with the results themselves. In fluid dynamics it's very easy to produce pretty pictures and sell them to the general public as meaningful results, especially if they are visualised as a colourful 3D video. However we know very little about the droplet concentrations, the droplet size distribution, the viral load in the droplets etc etc etc. So the only way to approach this is to make some assumptions that are bound to be wrong. A solution for that is to use different scenarios to find probabilities of possible outcomes. But even if you get reasonably close to getting the input parameters right (which I strongly doubt), there's no way to properly resolve the physics involved at a simulation this size. So effectively this is guesswork, just slightly embellished by numbers and fancy visualisation.

Link to post
Share on other sites

This one is not a great shock. They reckon that in the week to 03 April there were 410 deaths outside of hospitals, 217 of whom were in care homes. This is expected to get much higher in the next couple of weeks as the infection rate in such residences is increasing almost exponentially 

Link to post
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

×
×
  • Create New...