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RoseGoesToYale

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RoseGoesToYale

I'm not saying WWIII is actually going to happen, despite all of that getting thrown around. I'm still banking on Mutually Assured Destruction acting as the larger life force here.

 

But do you think the US is headed for yet another major war in the Middle East?

 

Although, if Iran and/or Iraq really wants to punish the US, they likely wouldn't have to lift a finger. The US still gets almost 30% of its oil from OPEC countries. If all of them decided to stop exporting it to the US, and place embargoes on weapons from the US, my country's economy would squirm. The question is whether they'd really do that.

 

Just... why now? Why is Trump trying to start armed conflicts now, and during an election year and all the impeachment hullabaloo? Is he getting desperate, thinking he's not going to win, so he's trying to make us look like "Big Bad America" again by flaunting the military and feeding on fear and patriotism? George W. Bush did serve in the military, but I really don't believe Trump has any tactical skill or military knowledge to deal with a war if he starts one.

 

Edit: Crazy other thought here... if Trump strongly feels he's going to lose, I wouldn't put it past him to try to create as much of a political/diplomatic mess as he can for his Democratic successor to inherit just to punish the new administration. And doing so would weaken the Democratic agenda, because if the next president has to spend a bunch of time and money cleaning it all up, that's less they'll be able to enact any changes promised in their platform.

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I'd be very surprised if this doesn't end in war 

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War is extremely unlikely in this case as Trump has no support for war even within his own party. 

The most likely outcome is Iran having sanctions relaxed and more captured US sailors and imprisoned dual citizens.

Soleimani is now a martyr which will be used to radicalize Iran's younger generations. Iran will develop nuclear weapons sooner and a cold war with Iran will last generations. Israel may launch strikes against Iran soon but Iran doesn't want a war with the US for a myriad of reasons. No American boots on the ground in Iran.

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Depends on your definition of "war", I guess. I don't expect tanks and nukes, but most likely air strikes and terrorist attacks by respective sides.

 

War with Iran is a far larger prospect than Iraq was, and I don't think Trump has the political capital or will to start a full on war, and Iran doesn't have the physical resources. I'm still more concerned about the conflict in Yemen that everyone seems to be ignoring. The end result is regional instability continuing.

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the great acescape

 

2 hours ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

just... why now? Why is Trump trying to start armed conflicts now, and during an election year and all the impeachment hullabaloo? Is he getting desperate, thinking he's not going to win, so he's trying to make us look like "Big Bad America" again by flaunting the military and feeding on fear and patriotism? George W. Bush did serve in the military, but I really don't believe Trump has any tactical skill or military knowledge to deal with a war if he starts one.

If I had to guess -and that's pretty much all I do-  Trump (or more accurately, the people surrounding him, since he is incapable of making any decisions without first being convinced that he will somehow benefit personally) is simply engaging the same post 9/11 playbook that Bush did, with the hopes that it will play out the same way it did in 2004. The difference this time around is that there's no 9/11 style event in recent memory that could possibly bolster the same amount of support from voters who aren't already in his base. Let's be real: pretty much nobody in the American public or in its fourth estate knew who Soleimani was before yesterday, and even the conservative commentators who are handwringing about the deaths of American soldiers are going against broader public opinion this time around.

 

People in my generation in particular are increasingly cynical about the hawkish U.S. foreign policy in the Middle East: we came of age during the 2003 Iraq War, and were sold an endless and destructive war using the same bullshit talking points, and the talking heads that cheerleaded this meaningless, bloody conflagration then are beating the drums for war now. We saw, from the safety of our living rooms, the torture and outright slaughter of Iraqi civilians from afar, and saw things like Abu Graib  on our televisions in much the same way Gen Xers did with the 1991 Gulf War and the Highway of Death.

 

Nobody but a select few people in America's top decile (a la your standard Erik Prince type ghouls) get any sort of material benefit from this, and there's no 9/11 to hide behind. It's craven, despotic, and cynical behavior, but it's not in any way an aberration. This is, simply, standard post WWII U.S. foreign policy, and it's how this country continues to enrich itself. The U.S. military apparatus feeds on this type of blood and death. After Soleimani's assassination, the price of oil shot up. It's good business, for those that can get it - and that's not many but the absolute richest and most morally craven elites on this godawful planet.

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I am also very concerned right now that this is not going to end well... it might lead to war, but I hope not.

 

Also, I think that Trump might be trying to start a war because of the theory that people are less likely to vote in a "replacement" during wartime - I don't know if that is true, but that is what they say.

 

It really worries me.  This is a mess, it really is.

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45 minutes ago, thylacine said:

I am also very concerned right now that this is not going to end well... it might lead to war, but I hope not.

 

Also, I think that Trump might be trying to start a war because of the theory that people are less likely to vote in a "replacement" during wartime - I don't know if that is true, but that is what they say.

 

It really worries me.  This is a mess, it really is.

Spoiler

I totally agree wholeheartedly @thylacine

 

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You have to ask yourself..."who suggested to Trump that tis was a good plan and should be done?"  Trump would not know this guy from Adam.  

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2 hours ago, Nick2 said:

You have to ask yourself..."who suggested to Trump that tis was a good plan and should be done?"  Trump would not know this guy from Adam.  

Putin? Putin actually loves this.

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Calligraphette_Coe

Who knows? Everytime one tries to predict wars and their outcomes, something unexpected and unplanned for always comes to the fore. Remember what General Yamamoto said about the attack on Pearl Harbor:

 

Quote

I fear all we have done is to awaken a sleeping giant and fill him with a terrible resolve

In this case, one might substitute the words 'fanatical jihadis' for 'sleeping giant', but where that leads is not a neatly defined battlefield with predictable enemies. And remember, there was Operation Vengeance, where Yamamoto himeslf paid the ulitmate price.

 

And never forget, warmongers are just more heads to the same Hydra-- cut one off with the sword, and two grow back to take its place. The best you can usually hope for is that they get hoisted by their own petards. And that there is an absolute minimum of collateral damages.

 

Oh, and the 'petards' rule cuts both ways-- one could make the case that Iraq was George Bush The Lesser's Waterloo by what that war spawned. And keeps on spawning as this episode unmistakenly proves. And the parallels are just too convenient to ignore.

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4 hours ago, R_1 said:

Putin? Putin actually loves this.

Unlikely. Iran and Russia have been pals for ages. Go back to the 80's, when the West armed Iraq, the Soviets armed Iran, and both used that war as a testbed for new battlefield technology. 

Granted Putin is laughing his ass off at the entire population of Tehran chanting "Death to America" ( conveniently overlooking the fact that the crowd have been brought in by the Revolutionary Guard, and are either loyal to the regime, or told "chant or you, and your family will be tortured to death") 

 

The seed was probably planted by one of his cronies in the weapons industry who wants more sales. 

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I keep hearing this song in my head lately... " 1 - 2 - 3, what are we fighting for? Don't ask me, I don't give a damn.  Next stop is Vietnam!  5 - 6 - 7, open up the pearly gates!  We're all gonna die!"  With what is going on in the world right now, I keep feeling reminded of that song...  don't know why (yeah, right).

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Calligraphette_Coe
2 hours ago, thylacine said:

I keep hearing this song in my head lately... " 1 - 2 - 3, what are we fighting for? Don't ask me, I don't give a damn.  Next stop is Vietnam!  5 - 6 - 7, open up the pearly gates!  We're all gonna die!"  With what is going on in the world right now, I keep feeling reminded of that song...  don't know why (yeah, right).

Ahh!! Country Joe and The Fish @ Woodstock! Remember it like it was yesterday. I was only 2 years shy of being of draft age, and when I was, it was almost over and I had a high lottery number. But I remember one of the last verses to that song...."....be the first one on your block to have your boy come home in a box... and it's 1-2-3, what're we fighting for.....". 

 

Just as with Viet Nam, the people who have the ear of the people who push the buttons don't have all the answers, and that's dangerous! How do we know that Iran doesn't have enough material and the technology to make a suitcase nuke? And would they go there if they did? Brinksmanship is a terrible game to play.

 

Reminds me of a saying: "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread."

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RoseGoesToYale
4 hours ago, Nick2 said:

If Iran really wanted to hurt Trump they should ignore US troops and attack a Trump Tower or 2 around the world.

I've already seen numerous tweets, fb posts, and signs saying "Dear Iran, I didn't vote for him!" or similar. Because really, the people didn't want this. We were all asleep in our beds, then wake up come morning, and boom, suddenly journalists are scrambling and Trump's prancing around like a dog with a dead squirrel.

 

I take comfort in knowing most of my generation can't be drafted for a war... because we've all got diagnoses of depression and/or anxiety! 🙃😭

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Hawks found a neat loophole where they can't declare war, but they are generally given free reign to bomb the shit out of people because reasons. We'll probably see even more of that.

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43 minutes ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

I take comfort in knowing most of my generation can't be drafted for a war... because we've all got diagnoses of depression and/or anxiety! 🙃😭

I see that the current generation gets to go through the same thing my generation went through in the early 2000s. I was 21 for 9/11, and that was really scary. I don't think there is concern about a draft right now, though.

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On 1/3/2020 at 5:59 PM, RoseGoesToYale said:

But do you think the US is headed for yet another major war in the Middle East?

I don't think so, unless Iran is dumb enough to make good on its threat. 

 

They aren't crazy enough, so are involving themselves in the PR of war games. 

 

The US does not want a conflict either, as the costs of a conflict would be far too high.

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19 hours ago, Calligraphette_Coe said:

Ahh!! Country Joe and The Fish @ Woodstock! Remember it like it was yesterday. I was only 2 years shy of being of draft age, and when I was, it was almost over and I had a high lottery number. But I remember one of the last verses to that song...."....be the first one on your block to have your boy come home in a box... and it's 1-2-3, what're we fighting for.....". 

 

Just as with Viet Nam, the people who have the ear of the people who push the buttons don't have all the answers, and that's dangerous! How do we know that Iran doesn't have enough material and the technology to make a suitcase nuke? And would they go there if they did? Brinksmanship is a terrible game to play.

 

Reminds me of a saying: "Fools rush in where angels fear to tread."

My God... another damn endless war...  I hope it doesn't come to that.

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RoseGoesToYale

There's a video of some sort of speech with the Iranian leader I just watched with a translation. Specifically he says his beef is with Trump, Pompeo, and the guys in charge of Washington, not the American people.

 

No objections here. Except to the death part. I just want to see all of them removed, out of positions of power, permanently, either within the bounds of the US Constitution or without, I honestly do not care anymore.

 

Sounds to me like he doesn't want a war as much as we don't. And it's reaching a point in history where it just isn't worth it anymore.

 

But something has to be done about regime change wars and the consistently ridiculous allocation of resources to a military that goes trying to morph the entire world into its own image. I am so sick and tired and bitter about my country's military, how tied in it is with our economic system. The weapons trade is a fucking profitable business for the government! Hell, if America didn't go starting wars, the economy would suffer because then who would buy our weapons? It has whittled out so many excuses to give foreign entities weapons that that's become more American that baseball, cracker jacks, and cheeseburgers.

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Calligraphette_Coe
1 hour ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

There's a video of some sort of speech with the Iranian leader I just watched with a translation. Specifically he says his beef is with Trump, Pompeo, and the guys in charge of Washington, not the American people.

But they all play the same game and say the same things: Trump and Pompeo et al couldn't have gotten into power had it not been for the people, albeit a minority, that put them there. And they keep doing the same boogeyman rountine with Sharia Law conspiracies. And the Iranians mucky-mucks do the same thing with The Great Satan and 'Death to America!"

 

What's kind of ironic is the way American conservatives habitually beat this drum and yell CONSTI-TOOOOO-SHUN like some insane chant, when it was the very framers of that document that all warned of the evils of a Standing Army. They conveniently forget that one or poo-poo it off as saying 'Those were different times' while NOT giving the same open-mindedness to things like the Electoral College with its abrogation of one person-one-vote-and-they-all-count.

 

Let's just hope the news-cycle is as short over there as it is here. And that some of these leaders don't start believing that you can win a war with nukes.

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I really think Trump is itching to use a nuke.  It may only be a battle field nuke but watch...he will order the use of one before this is over.

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the great acescape

Getting really sick of our venerable heads of state gleefully cheering on more war using literally the exact same premises that were propped up 17 years ago!! In a just world, every septuagenarian ghoul baying for more blood would be sent to fight on the front lines of a ground offensive with a broken, rusty M-1 Carbine. In this case, the ground offensive would just be airdropping them into the middle of the Dasht-e Kavir with one (1) gallon of water and just waiting a week or two for nature (read: dumbass warmongers) to take its course (read: die of exposure). Same for all of the talking heads on television who will inevitably fall in line with this tired and equally ancient narrative, since war and its consequences are just mere abstractions to them anyway.

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Saw a news report that Pompeo is saying "it's not our fault, it's Obama's". shakes head

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