Civil War 2.0

[Tabula Rasa]

A number of Trump supporters have given subtle to blatant threats of another civil war if he doesn't win the next election.

 

What do you think the likelihood is of that really happening? Why?

[RoseGoesToYale]

At this point, I don't even want to know. The sentiment these days seems to be "have gun, will fire at perceived enemies".

 

But consider what you need to have an actual civil war vs civilian unrest. You need two factions of civilians that are clearly, ideologically opposed across some line. You need leaders on either side with a strategic plan. For Trump supporters, Trump is not that leader, because my guess is he has the military prowess of a propeller beanie. And you need soldiers. No one wants to risk losing their jobs to fight.

[Zagadka]

The odds of anything significant happening are vanishingly thin. People always talk a big game, doing anything is a far bigger problem,, and doing anything on a scale that is disruptive to anyone is even more rare. We don't even have very large peaceful political demonstrations in America. Seeing a movement of note is not common, and seeing an extremist movement of note is almost unheard of. Even if a few remote groups do something, the odds of them unbalancing anything are so thin... our police forces are more than adequate to deal with that kind of thing, and who would they attack, random people they disagree with? Americans can't even sustain rallies, much less armed uprisings.

[Grimalkin]

There's a line from the Declaration of Independence that aptly sums up humanity. I'm quoting from memory here, so I apologize if there's errors, but it goes something like:

 

And accordingly all experience hath shone, that mankind is more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. 

 

In other words, it takes a helluva lot to get people to band together in any meaningful way to do anything. There has to be a series of very hardening events to get a civil war going, or really anything that might jeopardize the comforts people have in their lives. 

 

The country does seem really divided right now, but I don't think we're anywhere near a big civil war. You gotta remember that the idiots are heard the loudest. The vast majority of Trump supporters don't want that, but it's the loudest ones who get press coverage because it makes for a sensational story to get eyeballs on the page. 

[AspieAlly613]

I don't think there would be a war.  I think that if red states or blue states were to secede, the remaining states wouldn't fight to stop them, they'd say "good riddance, you can come crawling back when your failure of a country crumbles."

 

It's not like the 1860's when the entire conflict was people in one half of the country not liking slavery in the other half of the country.  This is disagreement about how our shared federal government would be implementing laws, everywhere.  

[RoseGoesToYale]

1 hour ago, Grimalkin said:

And accordingly all experience hath shone, that mankind is more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed.

Though I would say, the drafters used "mankind" when they only meant themselves, and really it doesn't apply too well outside the US.

 

The Russians shot up their monarchs in a basement and revolted years later. French peasants beheaded their monarchs and the wealthy people, too. Slaves in Haiti led a successful uprising against the French colonists. The Czechs and Slovaks rebelled (peacefully!) and toppled Soviet communism. A bunch of Mexicans tied their town's mayor to the back of a truck and dragged him through the streets because he didn't fix roads like he promised he would!

 

So all I can think is either, like the quote says, we are disposed to our suffering and don't have the will to change it because we're content enough, or modern America has not known true suffering.

[appleseedy]

3 hours ago, Grimalkin said:

And accordingly all experience hath shone, that mankind is more disposed to suffer, while evils are sufferable, than to right themselves by abolishing the forms to which they are accustomed. 

And this is why civil unrest is happening across the world, well apart from northern europe and america

[Skycaptain]

Unless the police and military want to get involved this won't happen. 

[Tabula Rasa]

I could see guerrilla warfare breaking out in the southern states. My biggest fear is that black churches will be under attack again with fire and bombs. Maybe my imagination is just very vivid.

[Grimalkin]

8 hours ago, RoseGoesToYale said:

So all I can think is either, like the quote says, we are disposed to our suffering and don't have the will to change it because we're content enough, or modern America has not known true suffering.

 

7 hours ago, appleseedy said:

And this is why civil unrest is happening across the world, well apart from northern europe and america

 

Yeah, that's the thing. When you're living in an area that's typically "stable" and comfortable, it's much harder to get any sort of revolt going. 

[RoseGoesToYale]

7 hours ago, Moira. said:

I could see guerrilla warfare breaking out in the southern states. My biggest fear is that black churches will be under attack again with fire and bombs. Maybe my imagination is just very vivid.

Perhaps not. We've already seen violence against the Jewish community these past few days. It seems to be a common theme among white shooters with extreme ideology, attack groups which are different from, and in their eyes pose a threat to, the causasian, christian, conservative community.

 

The scary thing is, even though we tend to see shooters, knife-wielders etc. as having a mental illness, it takes surprisingly little to rationalize violence against another group. Fear of extinction, scapegoating, lack of clear information or propaganda (Hitler disseminated caricatures and misinformation about Jews before the Holocaust), low resources, to name a few.

 

We already know Trump's penchant for scapegoating and spreading false information about those he considers his enemies. If he gets voted out, he shouldn't be allowed to make an exit speech. (I know, I won't get my wish) Because then he'll be angry and bitter and really might incite violence.

[Nick2]

We have been in a "cold" civil war for some time now.

[Gloomy]

A lot of them are probably just angry Internet tough guys who need to smoke a bowl and chill out.

 

 

[natsume]

The National Defense Act of 1916 turned the Army National Guard into a rebellion squashing juggernaut. It would be impossible to form a rebellion or launch a civil war without the national guard shutting it down in days. You would need foreign troops.

The national guard can impose martial law in cities by force across the country overnight.

[gisiebob]

14 hours ago, natsume said:

You would need foreign troops.

or maybe something like the national guard

 

 

I think having the opinion that some sort of rebellion is impossible is almost as stupid as thinking that some sort of rebellion is in any way likely.

[natsume]

You think the  Army national guard is going to rebel against the rest of the army? 

Well, that would be an attempted military coup which is a separate question altogether. But even if the national guard seized control of the entire army it would be one they would ultimately lose as they would have supply lines cut by the Navy along with generally not having the manpower.

I didn't state an opinion, I stated a reality. You just can't differentiate because you don't understand the military structure. 

[gisiebob]

24 minutes ago, natsume said:

You just can't differentiate because you don't understand the military structure. 

the military structure is people.

[uhtred]

I'm concerned.  The country is so deeply divided that the two sides barely recognize the other as legitimate anymore.   I worry that a close election, coupled with clear evidence of hacking, could result in violence that grows out of control. 

[natsume]

The violence is already out of control. Churches across the country are arming themselves because they know it's only a matter of time before a shooter targets them.

[AspieAlly613]

14 minutes ago, natsume said:

The violence is already out of control. Churches across the country are arming themselves because they know it's only a matter of time before a shooter targets them.

But that's not really a civil war situation, as far as I know.