Is a Modern Day Tiananmen Looming in Hong Kong?

[LeChat]

This news article is reporting that Carrie Lam asked China to scrap the bill last month, but that China told her not to.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stopped-hong-kong-axing-extradition-bill-solution-protests-reuters-2019-8

 

But, then, this one reported her saying that she wasn't given orders from China.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/20190610-hong-kong-vows-press-ahead-with-extradition-bill-despite-huge-protest

 

So, it's confusing, as to which leader okayed scrapping the bill.

[Guest]

1 hour ago, InquisitivePhilosopher said:

This news article is reporting that Carrie Lam asked China to scrap the bill last month, but that China told her not to.

 

https://www.businessinsider.com/china-stopped-hong-kong-axing-extradition-bill-solution-protests-reuters-2019-8

 

But, then, this one reported her saying that she wasn't given orders from China.

 

https://www.france24.com/en/20190610-hong-kong-vows-press-ahead-with-extradition-bill-despite-huge-protest

 

So, it's confusing, as to which leader okayed scrapping the bill.

She is voted in by a pro Beijing panel.

 

She is not in any control whatsoever.

 

She may not directly be receiving orders, but clearly needs to keep herself in good standing with her bosses like any employee. Anything she does must be in line with them. 

 

She doesn't work nor represent the voice of the people she's supposed to represent, hence the several protests she has had to deal with. 

 

Her quitting would have investors tripling their returns. The stock exchange in Hong Kong would probably crash. She is just not liked. At all. 

 

Trump is revered compared to her. 

[Guest]

I think the youth movement trying to topple a pro Beijing Hong Kong government by putting together more protests, are biting off way more than they can chew. 

 

You got a concession. This was the heavy push back that will force Beijing to wait before implementing bills until 2045 to avoid a repeat. All those months of fighting and deaths, were not put to waste, as a result. 

 

But to go against mainland China expecting them to budge again and not come down with brutal force, is foolish at best. 

 

Hong Kong will never be fully democratic. Its semi democratic at best right now. 

 

I think the lack of any leader for this movement makes it one that will do more damage than good to the financial hub. 

 

Unfortunately they are governed by s leader who isn't really good at public speaking, so the resolution will not come from her. 

 

I just don't see it coming from a youth movement, which now are likely emboldened by the huge victory. 

 

China has already crushed rebellious movements in its mainland with highly effective force. 

 

Its a game of being careful for what you wish for. 

 

I go to Hong Kong and I humble myself knowing my freedoms are limited while there. 

[Guest]

As promised amongst protesters. More violent clashes with police and with the plans to disrupt the airport once again to shut it down.

 

There is no way out. 

 

The message is clear. China must make concessions, deal with a humiliating blow to their ego bearing a key anniversary, or use brutal military force and do irreversible damage to Hong Kong's global image, sending the peninsula into a full blown recession. 

 

I would hate to be in Carrie Lam's shoes right now. 

[Guest]

Now they have a new anthem that was created. I don't see no peaceful end to this o_O

[uhtred]

The problem is that China holds all the cards here.  They *can* just send the military in and slaughter the protesters.  Really.   There is no one to stop them.  

 

Inside China the story would only get out in a very garbled fashion and most people would be smart enough not to look further.  Britain is in no position to stop them, not to mention that protecting their former colonial property won't go over well.

The US?  President Trump might think it was a great idea - he loves dictators.  

 

My bet is for a solution like the Thailand protests a while back. The government used sharp shooters to kill one (maybe a few) of the leaders.  Protest vanished.   Leaderless and facing actual death, it crumbled. 

 

I think the protesters should ask for something China can give them, and then end it.  SInce they didn't stop when the bill was withdrawn, its not clear what will make them stop. 

 

 

 

 

[Guest]

On 9/16/2019 at 1:00 AM, uhtred said:

The problem is that China holds all the cards here.  They *can* just send the military in and slaughter the protesters.  Really.   There is no one to stop them.  

With Donald Trump as president, I think you are onto something. China is aware they won't get any stern condemnation from the US nor would they apply any sanctions or any other punitive measures for the blatant abuse of human rights. 

 

On 9/16/2019 at 1:00 AM, uhtred said:

The government used sharp shooters to kill one (maybe a few) of the leaders. 

The stakes are too high. 

 

Turn things into a blood bath, and you further anger the crowd forcing you to stand down or amplify the levels of lethal force being used.

 

Hong Kong is a different beast. You're dealing with a peninsula that has enjoyed western like levels of freedom being told to shut up. That isn't enough. Many are willing to die to preserve the liberties that they have enjoyed for so long. 

 

Having been to both countries I can tell you socially they are vastly different. One can be silenced with fear (protesters). You will be hard pressed to do so in Hong Kong where people will demand to be heard. 

 

It would be messy to further anger the people, unless you were prepared to stomp out the fire you would be giving further oxygen to. 

 

The reverberations would cripple the Hong Kong economy in an irreversible manner. Not something either China or Hong Kong can afford.

 

[uhtred]

47 minutes ago, Perspektiv said:

With Donald Trump as president, I think you are onto something. China is aware they won't get any stern condemnation from the US nor would they apply any sanctions or any other punitive measures for the blatant abuse of human rights. 

 

The stakes are too high. 

 

Turn things into a blood bath, and you further anger the crowd forcing you to stand down or amplify the levels of lethal force being used.

 

Hong Kong is a different beast. You're dealing with a peninsula that has enjoyed western like levels of freedom being told to shut up. That isn't enough. Many are willing to die to preserve the liberties that they have enjoyed for so long. 

 

Having been to both countries I can tell you socially they are vastly different. One can be silenced with fear (protesters). You will be hard pressed to do so in Hong Kong where people will demand to be heard. 

 

It would be messy to further anger the people, unless you were prepared to stomp out the fire you would be giving further oxygen to. 

 

The reverberations would cripple the Hong Kong economy in an irreversible manner. Not something either China or Hong Kong can afford.

 

There are people willing to die in Hong Kong for more open elections.   The problem is that there are people willing to kill in China to stamp out dissent. 

 

How much real negative impact was there on china for "re-educating" possibly millions of Uighurs?

 

I don't think China wants to slaughter a thousand people - but I think they might do it if pressed.

 

 

[Guest]

23 minutes ago, uhtred said:

The problem is that there are people willing to kill in China to stamp out dissent. 

 

The issue with Hong Kong, is that they enjoy a relatively free press. 

 

So you would have the globe watching this unfold. Live, no less. 

 

China may want to end this with force, but they haven't built their powerful empire on impulse and foolish decisions.

 

This would be highly idiotic. 

 

Both economically and in terms of hurting their global positioning. 

 

China is doing things systematically. 

 

IE pressure on businesses allowing staff to knowingly protest. They have done so with several prominent businesses, forcing them to terminate staff. In the case of Cathay, the CEO stepped down, considering almost half of their revenue was generated via mainland China. A country that could easily barr their airspace to any non compliant airlines.

 

Many, are sending memos to employees that protesting is strictly prohibited. 

 

Updating school curriculums, and pushing the benefits of communism on young minds. 

 

You could do it even by systematically making the main language become Mandarin, eradicating the Hong Kong identity, regarding the Cantonese that they speak. 

 

They installed hundreds of "smart light posts", which have facial detection capabilities. 

 

They have also used social media to make arrests on people who traveled to the mainland after posting supportive messages regarding the protests. 

 

Right down to using their MTR train system to transport SWAT teams to pop up arrest protests right before they start. 

 

This sends far more shockwaves than a bullet could. 

 

They will only amplify that pressure from here. 

[uhtred]

Agree with the above except the communism part - as far as I can tell China no longer supports or really talks about communism anymore. 

 

 

[Guest]

On 9/17/2019 at 7:13 PM, uhtred said:

as far as I can tell China no longer supports or really talks about communism anymore. 

 

 

You may be onto something.

 

It just felt like a communist country when I was there. May just be the iron fist like dictatorship it is run under. 

 

While not felt in Hong Kong, you still saw subtle reminders that you weren't in a fully democratic state. 

 

IE a brutal arrest for jaywalking, or littering. Both which are highly illegal, and come with strict penalties if you're caught by police.

 

The "I didn't know" defense would be laughed at by a country like China once contacted by your consular services. 

 

I had never observed such strict discipline in crossing streets. 

 

I was looked at like I was crazy for jaywalking. Once I was briefed by friends, I quickly put a stop to it. 

[LeChat]

I don't know whether or not anyone else has seen the several posts on social media, informing the media that Chinese gangs and pro-Beijing supporters have attacked and seriously injured pro-democracy protesters (and not been arrested for it by the Hong Kong police), while the protesters who've tried calling the police for help have been arrested.

[uhtred]

4 hours ago, Perspektiv said:

You may be onto something.

 

It just felt like a communist country when I was there. May just be the iron fist like dictatorship it is run under. 

 

While not felt in Hong Kong, you still saw subtle reminders that you weren't in a fully democratic state. 

 

IE a brutal arrest for jaywalking, or littering. Both which are highly illegal, and come with strict penalties if you're caught by police.

 

The "I didn't know" defense would be laughed at by a country like China once contacted by your consular services. 

 

I had never observed such strict discipline in crossing streets. 

 

I was looked at like I was crazy for jaywalking. Once I was briefed by friends, I quickly put a stop to it. 

It felt authoritarian but not oppressive to me, and not communist. I say not "oppressive" because the police interaction with people on a day to day basis was friendly.  I"m sure bad things (tm) happen to anyone who steps out of line, but those who follow the rules are fine. 

[Guest]

1 hour ago, uhtred said:

but those who follow the rules are fine. 

Correct. Never had issue with police on the streets and always saw them smiling as they walked past always in a group. 

 

Only had issues at airport heading back as answered a question wrong last time I went this spring. They asked me for exact amounts on gifts purchased and I hesitated trying to calculate. Apparently this was a major mistake. 

 

Got greeted by half a dozen cops before boarding my aircraft as a result. 

 

Trying intimidation tactics and luckily am calm natured. IE a cop demanding my passport, while one demanding I sit down then getting in my face aggressively as I handed it over. Luckily for me their colleague informed them of what I was doing. Took everything in me not to mouth off the cop knowing it would be a rough ride for me if I did. 

 

But saw one aggressive arrest by a gang of officers. The infractions are often so mild as littering which carry with it a 6 month sentence. 

 

So you see flashes of that authoritarian regime even in Hong Kong. If you have social awareness you immediately know to be on your Ps and Qs about the law while there. 

[uhtred]

1 hour ago, Perspektiv said:

Correct. Never had issue with police on the streets and always saw them smiling as they walked past always in a group. 

 

Only had issues at airport heading back as answered a question wrong last time I went this spring. They asked me for exact amounts on gifts purchased and I hesitated trying to calculate. Apparently this was a major mistake. 

 

Got greeted by half a dozen cops before boarding my aircraft as a result. 

 

Trying intimidation tactics and luckily am calm natured. IE a cop demanding my passport, while one demanding I sit down then getting in my face aggressively as I handed it over. Luckily for me their colleague informed them of what I was doing. Took everything in me not to mouth off the cop knowing it would be a rough ride for me if I did. 

 

But saw one aggressive arrest by a gang of officers. The infractions are often so mild as littering which carry with it a 6 month sentence. 

 

So you see flashes of that authoritarian regime even in Hong Kong. If you have social awareness you immediately know to be on your Ps and Qs about the law while there. 

Interesting. I've spent very little time in Hong Kong so haven't happened to see any police interactions.   In mainland, the police are very polite (at least in public!).  

[Guest]

2 hours ago, uhtred said:

Interesting. I've spent very little time in Hong Kong so haven't happened to see any police interactions.   In mainland, the police are very polite (at least in public!).  

Until these protests, police in Hong Kong were highly respected. 

 

All interactions I saw, were positive. 

 

Keep in mind, the bad interaction I saw was finding out my adventurous nature got me in a bad neighborhood during a power walk. I tend to like venturing to the slums. Bad move in some countries. 

 

I knew I was in the slums due to the brutal arrest, but also due to the volume of rats and cockroaches I was finding everywhere that I hadn't experienced anywhere else. 

[Guest]

I think the Chinese flag continuously being stomped in Hong Kong will eventually cause a serious retaliation from Beijing. 

 

The antics are being escalated, and the police are becoming weary being forced into avoid using lethal force while being attacked. 

 

Only a matter of time a critical mistake is made by a fatigued officer trying to ward off protesters with a gun. 

 

It unfortunately seems to be the only way additional pressure is applied for the Hong Kong government to immediately put a stop to this. 

 

With double digit drops in people using some of the airlines servicing the hub, the trickle down economical damage will take quite some time to fix.

 

So much for starting a business there. 

 

I don't think I will recognize the Hong Kong I once knew in going back. 

 

All my friends there already have had to adjust. 

 

IE avoiding the Central areas during some evening times or risk getting caught in a flash protest.

[Guest]

First person to get shot at a protest. Mercifully not a fatal wound. 

 

This created anger and you unfortunately get the protesters turning up the pressure. 

 

Once one gets killed, it will hit a fever pitch and they will finally reach the impasse. Declare martial law, or give concessions. 

 

China is not one to cede ground. Especially not to a perceived enemy. 

[Guest]

On 9/18/2019 at 1:13 AM, uhtred said:

Agree with the above except the communism part - as far as I can tell China no longer supports or really talks about communism anymore. 

The boundary between state capitalism (modern China) and corrupt state communism (USSR/Soviet Bloc) is a rather blurry one.

[Guest]

I think a very bold line has just been drawn in the sand, with Carrie Lam effectively banning face masks.

 

Essentially, showing her willingness to use the sweeping powers she now has in the event of an emergency, under the British rules governing the peninsula.

 

This isn't limited to a curfew, or dramatically reducing the access to media, and essentially turning Hong Kong into a state where it will never be the same again.

 

Of course, this cause some of the most violent protests to date with vandalism defiantly going against her new law.

 

I just don't see how this doesn't turn into a martial law state, based on her reluctance to budge.

 

With that said, like it or not--Hong Kong needs Beijing's backing for it's survival, so I don't see her being able to budge on any further of their demands to begin with.

[Guest]

She has now threatened to block means of communication. Such as a mass internet shut down. 

 

Last leader I have seen so out of touch and delusional is flirting with impeachment proceedings o_O

 

My friends texted me train stations near them or establishments post mask ban. 

 

I can't support the destruction, as its costing the peninsula millions and costing civilians their jobs (IE if you burn down the front entrance of a Chinese bank).

 

This is not how you garner support. 

 

But Lam is the worst possible leader to deal with this crisis. 

 

Jinping in one sentence, did a better job that she did in months, in stressing the importance of upholding the one country two systems.

[LeChat]

@Perspektiv I understand what you mean, about the destruction.

 

However, I've also seen photos (I guess from locals) and read interviews where some witnessed certain situations of the police in plain clothes pretending to be protesters (locals and media showed in photos that they were carrying guns in holsters/batons, which only the police have, apparently, not the protesters) and throwing and destroying things (according to the reports, trying to make it appear to the public and the media that the protesters were causing all the mayhem, in order to convince them not to support the protesters).

 

I also saw a New York Times video documentary, with a few of the protesters who talked about how the police seriously injured them, continuing to hit them/spray mace on their wounds, even when they already had them subdued on the ground (it's graphic, so that's why I wasn't planning on giving a link, here). They showed photos and video of the plainclothes police beating protesters who were just trying to walk away from the protests or who thought they were trying to break up what looked like a fight between protesters (because they didn't know that some were plainclothes police officers. So, the police arrested them for "attacking" the police officers, even though they said that they didn't know, nor identify themselves as the police, (and arresting even children as young as 10, one of whom was only chanting a slogan) and, apparently, not arresting a Chinese supporter who'd seriously injured a protester in the leg, with a large knife (shaking hands with the police).

 

So, I sort of understood when a couple of the protesters mentioned in interviews that, because the police and Chinese supporters were injuring them, they feel that they don't have any other choice except to continue to protest, that doing nothing will just continue to allow their government and the Chinese government to take away their freedom/rights (whereas, with protesting and defending themselves, they feel that, at least they are giving themselves some sort of possible chance).

 

Like I think I mentioned, earlier, several locals were trying to show photos and video, explaining all this to the media, who didn't know about the plainclothes police officers pretending to be the protesters or the Chinese supporters attacking and injuring the protesters (apparently, without being arrested by Hong Kong police).

[Guest]

4 hours ago, InquisitivePhilosopher said:

I also saw a New York Times video documentary, with a few of the protesters who talked about how the police seriously injured them, continuing to hit them/spray mace on their wounds, even when they already had them subdued on the ground

The police are under immense pressure.

 

Uphold the law. Control the crowds, and they are under orders not to use lethal force. This under the watchful eye of the entire globe.

 

This is going on for a few months. Many in the force are injured each protest, some of their relatives are divided on what they are doing, and they are growing weary and angry at being the lightning rod for criticism, when the issue is political.

 

The pressure is causing many to crack.

 

This can be seen on the protester side as well, in their level of desperation. Their increase in violence, is by design to obtain international media attention, thus amplifying the pressure on the government and police to stand down regarding lethal force.

 

I am not surprised in the slightest at tempers starting to flare. 

 

This is exhausting. 

 

Also, I do feel the protester who was shot in the chest had that coming. He is lucky he didn't get killed. 

 

Beating down a retreating and cowering officer, then rushing one running to his aid with his gun drawn? 

 

Sorry, but with a crowd of dozens of angry protesters armed with metal bars who have already beaten your partner nearly unconscious, I am firing in the air, then at anyone running towards me. This was more than a justified level of force in this setting. 

 

However, the police came under heavy criticism for it. You watch the footage, and you realize the officer would have been justified in pumping the kid full of bullets, yet fired once and used heavy restraint after even with molotov cocktails being thrown at them. 

 

4 hours ago, InquisitivePhilosopher said:

Like I think I mentioned, earlier, several locals were trying to show photos and video, explaining all this to the media, who didn't know about the plainclothes police officers pretending to be the protesters

Yeah I heard about this, and some were caught. Unfortunately for one, he was hit with a molotov cocktail, and badly beaten causing his gun to drop to the ground. 

 

Locals call this "white terror".

 

If the government is inside your head, you have already lost the battle.

 

They will simply amplify the pressure and fear mongering, and those numbers protesting will steadily drop or risk facing additional charges due to the mask ban. 

 

I mean, many IDs are chipped, making it relatively easy to be identified by police later on by a scanning wand. 

 

Infiltration by police is known, as they obtain whereabouts and critical Intel allowing them to prepare or make flash arrests. 

 

They are (protesters) are using Bruce Lee's wisdom in being water. 

 

Even with police infiltration, are realizing that their tactics are making things difficult in terms of stopping the movement. 

[uhtred]

What are the long term goals of the movement? Do they want Hong Kong as an independent city state like Singapore?  Any idea what percentage of the population supports what?

[Guest]

10 hours ago, uhtred said:

Any idea what percentage of the population supports what?

From the residents I know and seeing the dwindling attendance at these protests, I think it's fair to say the vast majority of Hong Kongers simply want the liberties that they have to be maintained. This is the resonating sentiment you hear via the protestors. 

 

The moment Hong Kong was handed over, did China start eroding at them. 

 

This is where you see a sharp decline in the percentage of the national GDP Hong Kong was responsible for. 

 

In the mid 20% pre-handover.

 

Less than 5% now. 

 

Investors speak with their feet.

 

Turning Hong Kong into China would have catastrophic consequences for its economy. 

 

I will still visit the enclave as your home is where your heart is, and it's my home away from home--but there would be no way I would invest there in it's current state. Something I wanted to do in the next couple years.

 

Many investors will feel the same. Walk in Central Hong Kong, and you realize the issue. Many skyscrapers are adored with the names of foreign businesses.  

 

Many of which rely heavily on the liberties and eases to do business that this peninsula provides. This is what drew me to it in the first place. 

 

Control the internet to where you're monitoring everything and you will scare away the bulk of them. 

 

Not sure what the plan is, but seeing the morale of many, I don't think they have any plans and are just fighting as quitting would feel to them as they gave up on their freedom. 

 

Many protesters have a crushed morale, and the bulk you hear speaking feel its impossible to stop what the government is trying to do. 

 

Over 4 billion dollars were flipped into offshore accounts in the span of days. Many more, applied for foreign passports. 

 

Some of my friends and loved ones there are scrambling to get out and start over in places like Singapore, Taiwan and the like. 

 

I think most have that sinking feeling the liberties they have grown to love, are soon to disappear. 

 

If Lam moves forwards with the internet ban she has threatened, that's the beginning of the end for Hong Kong once they realize the power and control that they now have. 

[uhtred]

What liberties are considered critical?  The extradition seems somewhat like a detail and has already been reversed. Do elections really matter that much to people?  Look at the US where we have "fair and democratic elections" and see where its gotten us....

[LeChat]

2 hours ago, uhtred said:

What liberties are considered critical?  The extradition seems somewhat like a detail and has already been reversed. Do elections really matter that much to people?  Look at the US where we have "fair and democratic elections" and see where its gotten us....

You're asking about liberties for Hong Kong, right? Well, some of the protesters have mentioned that the right to protest against the government and officials (without being arrested or beaten for it) is one right they'd like to have; whereas, in China, protesting against the government isn't allowed. I'm sure having the right to peruse the internet, freely, without having the government block news media from other countries is another one (China blocks Western media sites from its citizens).

 

According to one of the Vox documentaries about Hong Kong (which I gave links to, on the first page, I think), they mentioned that the election system allows businesses to elect their own politicians in Hong Kong, which favors pro-Chinese officials; so, locals don't have as much democracy in elections as people in the U.S. do (because, while U.S. businesses lobby U.S. politicians, we don't have a voting system which allots them a certain amount to have full control over electing certain officials, without taking public citizens' votes into account).

[Guest]

2 hours ago, uhtred said:

Do elections really matter that much to people? 

I honestly don't think they do. 

 

It's also a no go zone for Beijing. They made that clear. There is no way they relinquish full control of the peninsula, which is what such a move would do. 

 

Mind you I am just reading between the lines here, so take what am about to say with a grain of salt. 

 

I think these protests boil down to the population being sick and tired of having their liberties stripped away. Something happening since 1997.

 

Lam is a horrible leader. She doesn't represent the people, nor is she wanting a reconciliation with them. She keeps pissing them off, then blaming them for their anger. This is not her first taste of public outrage since taking over her role governing Hong Kong. 

 

This is rubbing people the wrong way. 

 

Her stepping down is her accepting she made a mistake. Her pride can't handle this, and Hong Kong can't handle her remaining in power. 

 

This is what it boils down to in my opinion. 

 

A strong leader would bring a resolution to this. She's not it. 

 

Like a customer you piss off that had simple requests. Notice once pissed off, they become unreasonable? Impossible even.

 

Hong Kong is sick of it and this was the drop of water that broke the camel's back. 

 

Removing the liberties, is essentially turning New York city to a 9 to 5 city imposing strict curfews. You would then take the city's soul away. 

 

Its reputation as a business hub that never sleeps. 

 

Taking away the freedoms in Hong Kong has catastrophic repercussions.

 

From the foreign workers seeing it as an ideal go to to investors. 

[Guest]

Wow, pressuring the NBA and Apple into compliance with regards to removing any bit of support or perceived help or encouragement towards the Hong Kong movement. 

 

Crazy. 

 

Apple is a bit more challenging to pressure as China needs them as much as Apple need China. 

 

You don't want to lose out on access into such a lucrative market, just like China wouldn't want to lose that many jobs. 

[Guest]

The uncanny pressure and patience of the Chinese government is rather distressing as it is impressive.