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tygersongbird

2020 U.S. Presidential Race

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🚓💨💨

Is it a race?

 

If it's a race, then it looks like sprint between Usain Bolt, and a bunch of out of shape kids all trying to trip each other up.

 

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natsume

And who is Usain bolt in this scenario?

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Zagadka

I feel like a lot of the Democrats have no clue why they lost in 2016 and just jump onto that whole genius "Trump supporters are deplorables" train Hillary started. They are oblivious to the fact that Trump still has a very good chance of winning in 2020, and are campaigning like morons on the same failed platform, only now with the main anthem being "Trump bad." It was horrible enough that we wasted half of the last debate talking about impeachment instead of issues.

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Sally
12 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

I feel like a lot of the Democrats have no clue why they lost in 2016 and just jump onto that whole genius "Trump supporters are deplorables" train Hillary started. They are oblivious to the fact that Trump still has a very good chance of winning in 2020, and are campaigning like morons on the same failed platform, only now with the main anthem being "Trump bad." It was horrible enough that we wasted half of the last debate talking about impeachment instead of issues.

I don't remember that impeachment was discussed in the November debate -- there was no impeachment question asked.  Hillary didn't start the discussion about Trump supporters; she used that phrase but they were discussed before she did.  The Dems that I know do know why we lost in 2016 -- there were several reasons -- and again, the Dems I know are VERY concerned about Trump winning in 2020.  Also, the candidates are discussiong all sorts of issues, certainly not just "Trump bad."  

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Jethro
7 minutes ago, Zagadka said:

I feel like a lot of the Democrats have no clue why they lost in 2016 and just jump onto that whole genius "Trump supporters are deplorables" train Hillary started. They are oblivious to the fact that Trump still has a very good chance of winning in 2020, and are campaigning like morons on the same failed platform, only now with the main anthem being "Trump bad." It was horrible enough that we wasted half of the last debate talking about impeachment instead of issues.

Only thing worse than a two-party system is a one party system. Presidential election rules haven't changed in 250ish years. It's almost as if the democrats want to lose.

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pickles mcgee
7 hours ago, natsume said:

And who is Usain bolt in this scenario?

I had the same question.

 

2 hours ago, Sally said:

I don't remember that impeachment was discussed in the November debate -- there was no impeachment question asked.  Hillary didn't start the discussion about Trump supporters; she used that phrase but they were discussed before she did.  The Dems that I know do know why we lost in 2016 -- there were several reasons -- and again, the Dems I know are VERY concerned about Trump winning in 2020.  Also, the candidates are discussiong all sorts of issues, certainly not just "Trump bad."  

I second everything here.

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Lonemathsytoothbrushthief
On 12/5/2019 at 4:47 AM, Sally said:

The "average worth" means nothing, as you probably understand.  We're talking about individual candidates' for office, not a worth based on many millions of people. 

Yes but that worth based on many millions of people is more likely to be HIGHER than what the majority of americans have as net worth due to income inequality, meaning that only one US presidential candidate being below it is pretty damn significant-and it's only one measure of wealth I found, and money in politics is already known well enough that that one measure is enough for my argument. I don't understand why you would doubt there being a high chance of US politicians, of all people, being rich. The US system is less representative than that of ours in the UK, and we complain all the time about corruption e.g. the amount of politicians who are particularly exploitative as landlords(see: grenfell victims' housing support was an utter mess and many went missing even after the fire).

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natsume
18 hours ago, Snegurochka McLouWho said:

I had the same question.

On 12/6/2019 at 12:02 PM, 🚓💨💨 said:

Is it a race?

 

If it's a race, then it looks like sprint between Usain Bolt, and a bunch of out of shape kids all trying to trip each other up.

 

Who is Usain Bolt in this race?

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Skycaptain

^^Unfortunately, Trump. Generally the incumbent seems to be in front from the word go, simply because they've been in the news for the last four years and enough people remember the name not the deeds 

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daveb

I was going to post the pic of DJT playing tennis, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. Not exactly what one pictures when one thinks of a high level athlete. :P 

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Calligraphette_Coe
2 hours ago, daveb said:

I was going to post the pic of DJT playing tennis, but I couldn't bring myself to do it. Not exactly what one pictures when one thinks of a high level athlete. :P 

How does he cheat at that game? Get Rudy Guiliani to dig up dirt on the umpires?

 

Umpire: "OUT'

DJT: "It was perfect! I'ld like you to do me a favor, though......"

 

See, I think Impeachement and the 2020 elections are like Professional Wrestling.... the outcome has already been decided. And all the tee vee is about fan serrvice.

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daveb
3 hours ago, Calligraphette_Coe said:

How does he cheat at that game?

He has a history of cheating when it comes to love.

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Back to Avalon
3 hours ago, Calligraphette_Coe said:

See, I think Impeachement and the 2020 elections are like Professional Wrestling.... the outcome has already been decided.

As of now, you're right, but groups are trying to organize pro-impeachment rallies in the hopes of convincing GOP representatives and senators that their constituents want impeachment. Thus it might be in their interests to stop protecting Trump if they want to get reelected, which is the only reason some of them do anything. 

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Calligraphette_Coe
14 minutes ago, daveb said:

He has a history of cheating when it comes to love.

So if his fidelity were a tennis match, he'd be down 40-Love?  :)

 

He also has a history of cheating at golf. But as far as his wives, I look at it the same way Ross Perot looked at it when running as a third party candidate. Those immortal words are:

 

Quote

If you'd lie to your wife, you'll like to me."

And I thought this at the time Clinton was being impeached, too. He knew the Republicans were doing the exact thing they are now accusing Democrats are doing, which was a scorched Earth attempt to get the opposing party's president out of the White House. And yet, he walked right into their trap and then tried to lie about it.

 

I sometimes play 'What if...." and wonder if we wouldn't have been better off had Clinton been convicted in the Senate and removed. That would have given us Al Gore in charge, and maybe the 2000 election that put George W. Bush and his ill-advised war out of the history books. Maybe we wouldn't have had the Great Recession.

Truth be told, in '92, as a perennial Independent, I voted for Ross Perot.

 

 

 

 

8 minutes ago, Back to Avalon said:

As of now, you're right, but groups are trying to organize pro-impeachment rallies in the hopes of convincing GOP representatives and senators that their constituents want impeachment. Thus it might be in their interests to stop protecting Trump if they want to get reelected, which is the only reason some of them do anything. 

I was at my family's Christmas get together yesterday, and they are all MAGAites. I deflected most of the conversation by saying "I'm not counting on either party to make my life better-- this is a quagmire of double standards and half-truths and people will be in denial about it until.... they aren't."

 

I think the most that will come of that effort is a bashful admission that yes, what he did was not too cool, but what can you expect from a group who recently put DJT above Abraham Lincoln as a paragon of leaders. Sheesh! Can you imagine DJT writing somethings as memorable and reverent as The Gettysburg Address? It would probably start out with "Three score and twelve years ago, I was born!. And the angels wept!"

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Back to Avalon
5 minutes ago, Calligraphette_Coe said:

Can you imagine DJT writing somethings as memorable and reverent as The Gettysburg Address? It would probably start out with "Three score and twelve years ago, I was born!. And the angels wept!"

"Now we are engaged in a great civil war, and there are great people on both sides."

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Jethro
8 minutes ago, Calligraphette_Coe said:

I sometimes play 'What if...." and wonder if we wouldn't have been better off had Clinton been convicted in the Senate and removed. That would have given us Al Gore in charge, and maybe the 2000 election that put George W. Bush and his ill-advised war out of the history books.

I remember after 9/11 around 90% of the US population wanted war. I doubt very seriously he could stand against that kind of public pressure. Anyways I found a poll from that era. https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghanistan.aspx

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Calligraphette_Coe
17 minutes ago, Back to Avalon said:

"Now we are engaged in a great civil war, and there are great people on both sides."

He's really made a mockery of this great legacy, hasn't he? 

 

With any luck.....

 

Quote

Fox News will little note, nor long remember what he said here, but it can never.. no wait,  always... obfuscate what he did here.

But like the Carpetbaggers and Civil War, I think we'll survive it all. And hopefully be somewhat the wiser about how to frustrate any with despotic intentions.

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Calligraphette_Coe
6 minutes ago, Jethro said:

I remember after 9/11 around 90% of the US population wanted war. I doubt very seriously he could stand against that kind of public pressure. Anyways I found a poll from that era. https://news.gallup.com/poll/9994/public-opinion-war-afghanistan.aspx

Yeahbut, I was talking about Iraq. That happened in 2003, about a year and half after 9/11. I was one of the people who took a LOT of crap about vocally opposing it, and it doesn't give me any great pleasure to feel somewhat vindicated. If you look ahead to 2009 or so, there were a lot of people who felt it was a terrible 'waste of treasure'.  We are still dealing with the aftermath today, as the power vacuum was filled with ISIS.

 

See, I think this is why any leader that plays with foreign policy and wars as a opening to political advantage is clutching a viper to Lady Liberty's breast.

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AspieAlly613

Here's my personal version of FiveThirtyEight's "Buy/Sell/Hold" on the predictit bedding markets:

 

Democratic nomination:

 

Joe Biden:  Predictit has him at 38%.  I would BUY, meaning that I think his chances are greater than that.  I'd actually put his odds at closer to 80%.  My reasoning makes more sense when I talk about the other candidates, but the short version is that FiveThirtyEight has him up by 10% with just over a month before the Iowa caucus.  He could lose that lead, but it's less likely to happen than not.

 

Bernie Sanders:  Predictit has him at 28%.  I had to think for a while between deciding between SELL, indicating that I think that percentage is too low, and HOLD, indicating that I think it's about right.  That number 28% is noteworthy because that was Donald Trump's likelihood of election (according to FiveThirtyEight) right before election day.  Here's the difference:  There were some respected polls showing a Trump lead or a Clinton lead so narrow that an electoral college advantage could make the difference.  There are hardly any polls showing Sanders behind by less than 5%.  He has a chance, but I think it's more like 15%, not 28%.  My current verdict:  SELL.

 

Elizabeth Warren:  Predictit has her at 13%.  She's 13 points behind and has 2 opponents to try to get in front of.  I feel optimistic giving her a 5% chance.  SELL.

 

Pete Buttigieg:  Predictit has him at 13%.  News of his virtual tie for the lead (previously actually having the lead) in Iowa and New Hampshire did not give him a significant bump in the rest of the country.  If he actually wins them by one delegate, it won't give him enough of a bump to remain competitive.  I think his chances are negligible.  SELL.

 

Everyone else:  SELL.  They're all over 20 pints behind.  Their chances are negligible.

 

 

Presidency:

 

Donald Trump:  Predictit has him at 47%.  I think he has a decisive disadvantage.  He's not down-and-out, but he is down.  He barely won in 2016 back when a lot of voters viewed him as moderate.  Then he nominated cabinet members, shattering that illusion, and his approval rating fell 10 percentage points in about a month.  His approval rating hasn't deviated from that new number by more than around 4 percentage points since.  There's time for him to turn things around, but he is behind.  I think that his actual odds are closer to 35%.  SELL.

 

Joe Biden:  Predictit has him at 22%.  I think he has such a high likelihood of being nominated that his likelihood of getting elected is closer to 55%.  BUY.

 

Everyone else:  I think the odds of anyone else getting nominated are down around 20%, so that makes the likelihood of anyone else in particular getting nominated and winning lower than what Predictit has.  SELL.

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Skycaptain

From a global perspective, I think most people want Trump to lose the Republican nomination. 

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Nick2

The man or woman who becomes president has a giant job  ahead of them cleaning up this mess...just the orange tanning liquid alone all over the WH will take years to clean up.

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iff
4 hours ago, Nick2 said:

The man or woman who becomes president has a giant job  ahead of them cleaning up this mess...just the orange tanning liquid alone all over the WH will take years to clean up.

And the economic time bomb that trump and trumpette republicans have set on the economy and state budgeting with the financial mismanagement in the last three years. When that goes off, that is going to devastate many people's lives

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Nick2
4 hours ago, festiff said:

And the economic time bomb that trump and trumpette republicans have set on the economy and state budgeting with the financial mismanagement in the last three years. When that goes off, that is going to devastate many people's lives

And they will blame Dems for the mess.

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Back to Avalon
13 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

From a global perspective, I think most people want Trump to lose the Republican nomination. 

True, but it almost certainly won't happen. I had to Google "2020 republican candidates" just to remember who's challenging him for the nomination. No other Republican candidate has gotten much attention or raised much money.

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gisiebob

@AspieAlly613  ok. but why did you feel the need to say  that in  the language of the vampires who drink from american dreams?

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AspieAlly613
18 hours ago, gisiebob said:

@AspieAlly613  ok. but why did you feel the need to say  that in  the language of the vampires who drink from american dreams?

Because I'm a vegetarian, so it would feel weird to use language of vampires that drink from actual blood.

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Sally
On 1/3/2020 at 1:45 PM, Back to Avalon said:

True, but it almost certainly won't happen. I had to Google "2020 republican candidates" just to remember who's challenging him for the nomination. No other Republican candidate has gotten much attention or raised much money.

No one has the guts to run against him.  He still has his "base" and the Republican party has given up; it's now his party.  They're afraid that he will/would do something extremely awful if anyone opposes him.  They are essentially his hostages.  

 

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AspieAlly613

The stupid thing is this:  President Trump's election was largely the result of undecided voters changing their minds at the last minute.  Roughly 2/3 of the 8% late-deciders voted for Trump.  Trends among late deciders are, for the most part, random and idiosyncratic.  Had late deciders voted for Clinton by that margin, she would have carried Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia.  

 

Meanwhile, had Mitt Romney managed a similar stroke of luck with late deciders (who voted for Obama more often than not) he would have probably carried Florida, Ohio, and Virginia, and been close in Colorado and Pennsylvania.  (He would have needed one of those last two to win.)  As a side note, if he came up 1 point short in those two states, he likely would have won the popular vote but lost the electoral college.  It would be interesting to see how the electoral college debate would play out if a Republican candidate were to win the popular vote but lose the electoral college.

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pickles mcgee
30 minutes ago, Sally said:

He still has his "base" and the Republican party has given up; it's now his party. 

I think it's more this than that no one has the guts.  They don't have the support.

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Gentle Giant

It’s hard to believe that Republicans would want to stay with Trump rather than go with Weld or Walsh. It makes no sense at all. Unfortunately the challengers don’t get any press and very few people even know there are people challenging him. There hasn’t been any Republican debates. It’s too late now for a change in the nominee.

 

I was talking with my brother and sister-in-law and both of them are afraid of Elizabeth Warren getting in for president. My sister-in-law thinks that we will have 67% of our paychecks taken away to pay for Medicare For All. My brother can't stand Trump, but doesn’t want Warren. He would consider other dems (or third party) than her or Sanders for nominee. Warren and Sanders especially need to reassure people that lower and middle class aren’t going to be footing the bill.

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