Master UK Political Discussion Thread

[michaeld]

10 minutes ago, Moonman said:

It looks like running the election on a neutral / people’s vote stance on Brexit has cost Labour.

 

Did they fail to represent the working class Leave voter?

 

Must admit, I had no idea Brexit was this important to voters. It feels like Leave would win if we had a people’s vote tomorrow. 

Honestly I think Brexit was a no-win issue for them whichever way they went. Most of their voters and activists are Remain supporters but most of the constituencies they (previously) held voted Leave. I don't see what they could have done. In 2017 Corbyn did the politically savvy thing of making the election about "anything but Brexit". That trick wasn't going to work a second time: they had to take a stand, and whatever stand they took was going to cost them a huge number of votes.

 

Incredibly ironic that the Conservatives created the Brexit mess but it's Labour who suffer most for it, because of their hugely divided base.

[michaeld]

2 minutes ago, Moonman said:

I think they’d have fared better on a Leave policy politically speaking. Key Labour strongholds probably would have been held and a chunk of Remain voters likely would have picked them over Lib Dem and the likes anyway because the UK is very two-party at the moment. I’m thinking in purely political terms here though...

I think that's also a good point. The UK - well really England - is very two-party dominated when it comes to general elections. Other types of election - such as the European elections - much less so: in fact not at all.

 

After the European elections earlier this year Labour were under huge pressure to adopt a more remain-leaning position - in particular to offer a second referendum - because they were shedding votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems. And this argument made a lot of sense - after all, where are Remain voters to go if both major England parties are taking us out? Brexit is the burning issue of today, and it makes sense the opposition should be representing the other side.

 

The problem is though the Lib Dem threat was hugely exaggerated in a general election context (and I say that as a lib dem supporter). Lib Dems never do well in general elections, which always revert to two party politics in England. So effectively the Euro elections got Labour worried about the wrong thing - shedding remain voters to the Lib Dems - meaning they took their "second referendum" stand, which it seemed everyone was pressuring them to all along. I still think there's no winning this situation for them, but they might have been better off trying to dodge the issue again like in 2017 even though it would have looked very silly.

 

Another really ironic thing about the conservatives creating this mess and benefiting from it. Scotland might well become independent based on this result and how things are going. If so, the conservatives will have an even larger majority in the rest of the UK. The more they screw things up for the country, the harder it is to remove them. Things are pretty bleak.

[Lonemathsytoothbrushthief]

3 hours ago, Midland Tyke said:

I doubt Boris will last 5 years. He's bound to do something so heinous that he'll get kicked out or have to resign. And maybe, just maybe, he wont win his seat?

But the thing is, early launches of elections are actually working very well for the tories. They're just another tactic for them, so it's not a question any more of how long a given pm lasts so much as how much worse the propaganda will get...

[Tanwen]

12 hours ago, Ortac said:

Not true. Many people are tied to their country of origin whether they like it or not, even if they do become naturalised citizens of their new country. Many expats are pensioners whose pension rights lie in the UK and not in their country of residence, and the pensions they rely on fom their home country are affected by government decisions and policy. And the 3 million UK expats living in EU countries most definitely are affected by the UK's actions and decisions over brexit.

 

This rule effectively punishes people for having utilised their right to free movement. In fact, I recall reading somewhere that a court in the EU had declared it illegal for this reason. 

They have chosen to leve the UK for a number of reasons, but it has been their choice. They are still receiving their UK pension, my cousin went to live in Spain because the weather meant he didn't have to pay a smal fortune on heating bills; but still got annoyed because he didn't get the Winter Fuel Payment! 

 

Anyway, results are in and - for better or worse - Conservatives have a massive majority.

[natsume]

Boris Trum... Boris Johnson won

[Acing It]

3 hours ago, michaeld said:

I think that's also a good point. The UK - well really England - is very two-party dominated when it comes to general elections. Other types of election - such as the European elections - much less so: in fact not at all.

 

After the European elections earlier this year Labour were under huge pressure to adopt a more remain-leaning position - in particular to offer a second referendum - because they were shedding votes to the pro-EU Lib Dems. And this argument made a lot of sense - after all, where are Remain voters to go if both major England parties are taking us out? Brexit is the burning issue of today, and it makes sense the opposition should be representing the other side.

 

The problem is though the Lib Dem threat was hugely exaggerated in a general election context (and I say that as a lib dem supporter). Lib Dems never do well in general elections, which always revert to two party politics in England. So effectively the Euro elections got Labour worried about the wrong thing - shedding remain voters to the Lib Dems - meaning they took their "second referendum" stand, which it seemed everyone was pressuring them to all along. I still think there's no winning this situation for them, but they might have been better off trying to dodge the issue again like in 2017 even though it would have looked very silly.

 

Another really ironic thing about the conservatives creating this mess and benefiting from it. Scotland might well become independent based on this result and how things are going. If so, the conservatives will have an even larger majority in the rest of the UK. The more they screw things up for the country, the harder it is to remove them. Things are pretty bleak.

You can see why the tories don't want to get rid of the first past the post system. They benefit hugely from it. I wonder what the country would look like under a proportional representation system. Hard to tell as people would vote differently.

[iff]

5 hours ago, Lonemathsytoothbrushthief said:

But the thing is, early launches of elections are actually working very well for the tories. They're just another tactic for them, so it's not a question any more of how long a given pm lasts so much as how much worse the propaganda will get...

I feel the snp support was about taking back the 20 seats lost in 2017 and the lib dems at the time were second in polls, were hoping to replace Labour as second party. 

 

-----

At least northern ireland saw some positive results. Centrist hold as alliance party took the seat of retiring lady Sylvia Hermon. In a 17% swing, colum Eastwood took the foyle seat for the SDLP from sinn fein. This had been SDLP heartland for long time as this was represented by John Hume. Clare hanna also took a seat for SDLP in South Belfast. 

[Sally]

Isn't it possible that Corbyn was simply considered to be a rather unpleasant human being, and thus not an attractive leader?  

[Blaiddmelyn]

13 minutes ago, Sally said:

Isn't it possible that Corbyn was simply considered to be a rather unpleasant human being, and thus not an attractive leader?  

He's generally considered a nice person, just not a good leader/not good policies. He has been on the right side of history more often than most MPs and is noted to have been more compassionate etc when dealing with things like Grenfell than other leaders.

[Skycaptain]

@Sally, I personally think that he cost Labour votes because he's too far to the left. 

[Blaiddmelyn]

2 hours ago, Acing It said:

You can see why the tories don't want to get rid of the first past the post system. They benefit hugely from it. I wonder what the country would look like under a proportional representation system. Hard to tell as people would vote differently.

Yeah. My constituency was Tory hold but about 57% didn't vote Tory - it was split 32/25 among labour and LD. I think it was a similar story in a lot of Con wins/holds.

[Skycaptain]

Jo Swinton, the Libdem leader has lost her seat, and has already announced her resignation 

 

Corbout has already stated that he won't be Labour leader at the next election 

[Cheshire-Cat]

I think the fact Corbyn hasn't shown the strongest leadership over Brexit lost him a lot of votes, as did some of his policies. I like the fact he;s different to many but honestly I don't think he'd be the greatest leader. I dislike Boris but at least he actually gave his opinion and led by it. If there had been a different Labour leader the results could have been different.

[Guest]

Really disappointed. I live in a rural area with a very small hospital. The strain I’ve seen it under over the past few months and knowing it’s going to get worse is awful. 

[michaeld]

1 hour ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

I think the fact Corbyn hasn't shown the strongest leadership over Brexit lost him a lot of votes, as did some of his policies.

Problem is, showing leadership over Brexit would mean having a definite policy, and as far as I can see *any* definite policy on Brexit would cost Labour a tonne of votes, as their base is so completely split on the issue.

 

Still I think they'll bounce back next time. Brexit will happen in January, Johnson will be able to do what he wants without much opposition, and he won't have anyone else to blame next time when things go pear shaped. However that is 5 years away...

[michaeld]

13 hours ago, Midland Tyke said:

Fascinating. In general it appears that the Conservatives have out-performed the exit poll. Maybe because people don't like admitting that they voted for them?

Seems this election finally bucked the trend going back to at least 1992, going by that video. This time the exit poll flattered the conservatives a little, for once.

[Lonemathsytoothbrushthief]

5 hours ago, festiff said:

I feel the snp support was about taking back the 20 seats lost in 2017 and the lib dems at the time were second in polls, were hoping to replace Labour as second party. 

 

-----

At least northern ireland saw some positive results. Centrist hold as alliance party took the seat of retiring lady Sylvia Hermon. In a 17% swing, colum Eastwood took the foyle seat for the SDLP from sinn fein. This had been SDLP heartland for long time as this was represented by John Hume. Clare hanna also took a seat for SDLP in South Belfast. 

I'm glad to hear it, everything I'd been hearing from Ireland sounded more encouraging. I'm sorry it's gone so awfully here.

[ben8884]

39 minutes ago, michaeld said:

Problem is, showing leadership over Brexit would mean having a definite policy, and as far as I can see *any* definite policy on Brexit would cost Labour a tonne of votes, as their base is so completely split on the issue.

 

Still I think they'll bounce back next time. Brexit will happen in January, Johnson will be able to do what he wants without much opposition, and he won't have anyone else to blame next time when things go pear shaped. However that is 5 years away...

Yeah thats the thing, whatever Corbyn did on Brexit he would have either alienated his party or alienated his constituencies that voted for Brexit or he could do what he actually did which was have a middle of the road vague policy and alienate everyone. Say what you will about Johnson, Lucas, Swinson and even Farage-I can tell you exactly what there policies are on Brexit and its been consistent. Where I lost faith in Corbyn was when he refused to back a third referendum demanding an election first (Labour were ahead in the polls) only to almost completely reverse his stance. So for anyone wanting another referendum thank Corbyn for not getting one. 

 

[Homer]

A German weekly newspaper titled their article about the UK elections "The Geese Elected Christmas".

[natsume]

Cash out your stocks and exchange them for euros now. You saw the preview when the referendum on something  the "yes" voters did not understand passed (31-year low for the pound)

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2016/jun/23/british-pound-given-boost-by-projected-remain-win-in-eu-referendum

You're running out of time to save your retirement.

[Tanwen]

10 hours ago, Sally said:

Isn't it possible that Corbyn was simply considered to be a rather unpleasant human being, and thus not an attractive leader?  

He was ineffective, Momentum was too far to the left to be acceptable to many voters - renationalising denationalised 'industries', extending the 'right to buy' to private tenants among them. People who had NEVER voted Conservative did this time - many voting AGAINST Corbyn rather than FOR Johnson. One commentator this morning said that Conservative percentage increased in areas which had voted for Brexit - which sort of indicates that were there to be another referendum, it might not be as clear cut as remainers think. 

[natsume]

On 12/11/2019 at 7:05 PM, natsume said:

Imagine running on upending the British economy. And literally just repeating the brexit lies that were already disproven like that brexit will increase money for the NHS. Now imagine that this strategy is working.

 

40 minutes ago, Tanwen said:

He was ineffective, Momentum was too far to the left to be acceptable to many voters - renationalising denationalised 'industries', extending the 'right to buy' to private tenants among them. People who had NEVER voted Conservative did this time - many voting AGAINST Corbyn rather than FOR Johnson. One commentator this morning said that Conservative percentage increased in areas which had voted for Brexit - which sort of indicates that were there to be another referendum, it might not be as clear cut as remainers think. 

 

[Acing It]

9 hours ago, Moonman said:

A lot of people speak of electoral reform, especially smaller parties but the Tories won the popular vote by some 3.6 million voters. However you slice it, that is an astounding figure considering it was closer to 600,000 voters just two years ago.

 

I sincerely hope there’s some honest and candid discussions in the Labour party today. 

I agree. However my comment was made without affiliation to a political party but from a point of experience of living in countries with proportional representation. It's just a fairer system. With first past the post, you get a stronger government if all is well, but at best, a very large proportion of the country isn't represented. My personal opinion (and that's all it is) is that first past the post is a backward system, though I recognise it has its strengths. Just like in the states, it promotes a two party system with a lot of black and white, polarised thinking as a result. If you're not in favour of the tories, it's automatically assumed you're in favour of labour a lot of the time. Just my opinion.

[Lonemathsytoothbrushthief]

"I voted for Hitler because the opposition was mildly annoying and weak" doesn't make as much sense as people think it does.

 

In case you're gonna challenge me on the hitler part: the conservatives are privatising healthcare, using benefits systems to drive disabled people to suicide, and their manifesto contains the intention of wildly extending the punishment for "trespassing" which will allow them to basically repossess the homes of Romani and Travellers. Reminder: the Roma and Travellers have a long history of persecution and genocide in Europe.

[Acing It]

21 minutes ago, Lonemathsytoothbrushthief said:

"I voted for Hitler because the opposition was mildly annoying and weak" doesn't make as much sense as people think it does.

 

In case you're gonna challenge me on the hitler part: the conservatives are privatising healthcare, using benefits systems to drive disabled people to suicide, and their manifesto contains the intention of wildly extending the punishment for "trespassing" which will allow them to basically repossess the homes of Romani and Travellers. Reminder: the Roma and Travellers have a long history of persecution and genocide in Europe.

I know it's annecdotal but that's what I've seen happen in a lot of vox pop items on tv today. (not the Hitler part of course!!)

[Carmine88]

Let them have their victory and when it all goes to pot people will know who to blame. The Tories can't deliver on any of their promises, they never do. They're just digging themselves a deeper hole. When the torches and pitchforks come out when there's not enough to go around everyone always goes straight for the rich.

[natsume]

55+ supported Brexit (conservatives + brexit party vote). 65+ supported it at nearly 65%. The irony here is that they're doing this because ordinarily conservative proposals hurt future generations immensely while helping their generation slightly. Brexit will hurt 55+ (65+ will have retirement plans irrecoverably decimated) more, but that's the thing with being short-sighted... It will eventually bite you in the ass.

[michaeld]

18 hours ago, Moonman said:

Frankly, I am relieved that we now have people inside the House of Commons that want what people outside the House of Commons want, even if a great deal of this is not what I, my friends and many other like-minded people want.

Even if it tears apart the country? I don't see how we can keep Scotland in the UK now, long term. Brexit (at least single-market-leaving Brexit) also causes seemingly insurmountable problems for N.Ireland, the only long term resolution I can see being Irish reunification. Honestly I get what you're saying: even though I'm completely against Brexit, I could just about accept everything - all the problems it will cause us - except for the existential threat to the UK itself. That seems to me to be the killer issue.

 

9 hours ago, natsume said:

55+ supported Brexit (conservatives + brexit party vote). 65+ supported it at nearly 65%. The irony here is that they're doing this because ordinarily conservative proposals hurt future generations immensely while helping their generation slightly. Brexit will hurt 55+ (65+ will have retirement plans irrecoverably decimated) more, but that's the thing with being short-sighted... It will eventually bite you in the ass.

I'm rather proud of the fact that (while I do have some Brexit-supporting relatives) my two living (at the time) grandparents voted remain. They were both born in the 1920s and on opposite sides of the family (so unrelated themselves). Maybe the pre-boomer generation, which they belonged to, had a more positive attitude to the EU...

[natsume]

Splitting and joining the EU would be much better economically for Scotland and Ireland.

[Acing It]

11 minutes ago, natsume said:

Splitting and joining the EU would be much better economically for Scotland and Ireland.

From the point of view of Scotland, I'm really, really not sure whether that's going to be true if partition happens, and it's a decision I have to make now, moving back to Scotland or not. Not just because of this but other reasons as well btw. And, it feels as much a gamble as anything, throwing my lot in with England or Scotland. Apart from tourism, Scotland relies at least in some part on North Sea oil for it's ecomonic welfare and that's not going to last forever. I know this is a very much simplified version but I'm not even sure how simplified it is. There's also the fact that, if Scotland should vote to part, and then actually part in reality, what is going to happen with the polical landscape up there, when the SNP will have lost a lot of its raison d'etre. Which way is Scotland going to turn politically. A lot to think about.