Master UK Political Discussion Thread

[Skycaptain]

I can see the government falling sooner rather than later. 

[michaeld]

2 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

I can see the government falling sooner rather than later. 

That would require a significant number of conservatives to vote against their own government - or for the DUP to vote against, which is effectively voting themselves out of power. I don't see it - the conservatives are too worried about Corbyn getting in and the DUP will very likely not be part of any coalition next time, no matter what the result.

[iff]

16 hours ago, timewarp said:

Yes, but...

 

 

 

 

 

 

This explains why margarine makers as take the unorthodox approach of arguing families as opposed to the butter makers who use happy families .

 

 

Vincent cable resigned as lib dem leader, much to surprise that he was.

[Cheshire-Cat]

Once May decided on a hard Brexit NI became the impossible problem as you have to have a hard border somewhere, whether that's between ROI and NI or Ireland and the mainland UK. That was never going to win DUP support. A hard border between NI and ROI could quite easily reignite tensions and the ports from the mainland to Ireland just aren't equipped to deal with a hard border. If she'd gone for a softer Brexit, and been more willing to be flexible, then we likely would have had Brexit by now. Instead it appears she went for hard Brexit to show that even though she was a remainer she could deliver a full on Brexit.

 

As for Wales being closer to England, we have been under English rule for significantly longer, and have had our own Parliament for less time, which has less powers than the Scottish Parliament. Wales also struggles industrially as mining was one of the major employers, however, now large parts of Wales now rely on tourism. We do not have a landscape suitable for a lot of industry (factories don't do well halfway up a mountain!) which is also limiting. Wales could potentially go it's own way but I think it would be a long hard struggle. 

 

In terms of our NHS, we have less spend per person on healthcare, and we have to send a lot of more specialist stuff to England. I live in deepest darkest Wales and have to travel to Bristol for some of my care because it just isn't available in Wales. And I got lucky as they've since stopped referring people with my condition to Bristol so now they get no care at all! As someone who works in healthcare over the time I've been in Wales I've watched our healthcare eroded. Where I work we're at about the same level of problems we had during the 'winter pressures' and it's now May! We have patients spending days in A&E, often in beds around the nurses station because there's no space on the wards. A&E is basically now a ward with the actual A&E patients stuck on ambulances outside for hours as there's no-where for them to go. Come this winter I really don't know how they will cope.

[michaeld]

19 minutes ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

As for Wales being closer to England, we have been under English rule for significantly longer, and have had our own Parliament for less time, which has less powers than the Scottish Parliament. Wales also struggles industrially as mining was one of the major employers, however, now large parts of Wales now rely on tourism. We do not have a landscape suitable for a lot of industry (factories don't do well halfway up a mountain!) which is also limiting. Wales could potentially go it's own way but I think it would be a long hard struggle.

Plus England and Wales have a shared legal system, unlike Scotland and Northern Ireland.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales

 

And of course a shared cricket board. 😛

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/England_and_Wales_Cricket_Board

 

Though as for parliament, didn't both Scotland and Wales get their own parliament or assembly in 1999?

[Blaiddmelyn]

2 hours ago, michaeld said:

Though as for parliament, didn't both Scotland and Wales get their own parliament or assembly in 1999?

Yes but Scotland got primary powers immediately whereas Wales did not until later in the 2000s. And it has less powers.

[michaeld]

OK.

 

Tory Leadership contest: seems the final choice for our next PM will be by a group of people, 2/3 of whom back a no deal Brexit.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-48395211

 

Complete disaster.

[timewarp]

That's good. Anybody going for a no-deal Brexit will split the Tory party. Perfect outcome.

[michaeld]

Well it's not a perfect outcome if a no deal Brexit is what actually happens, split party or not. Will the party be split enough for a no confidence vote in the government to actually win?

[timewarp]

According to what Philip Hammond said this morning it seems likely. He hinted very strongly he would support a no-confidence motion in that case, making a general election more likely.

[michaeld]

Let's hope... (Not that I relish the thought of a Labour government led by Corbyn, but they are somewhat more likely to offer a second referendum...)

[Kelly]

I just learned the possible next PM BoJo was born in,,,

 

 

...New York City.

[Sally]

Doesn't Britain require that their PMs were born in Britain?   US does, viz the stupid controvery that Trump fed for years about Obama.  

[michaeld]

In fairness, even American presidents probably don't have to be born in America. I say probably because there is some difference of opinion among legal experts, and it hasn't been tested out in the courts. The general consensus though is that anyone who is a US citizen from birth qualifies - which includes anyone born in the USA but also anyone born outside the USA to two American parents. Thus McCain and Cruz would probably have been eligible despite being born outside the USA.

 

Bonar Law (1858-1923) is our only Prime Minister born outside the British Isles: New Brunswick in his case, which admittedly was a British colony at the time.

[Skycaptain]

This is Wikipedia's stuff on the origins of the Prime Minister's position 

 

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Prime_Minister_of_the_United_Kingdom

[Tyke]

I wonder what the results will show, in 30 minutes time?

[timewarp]

Not many surprises there I suppose. It's Brexit party vs Lib Dems, aka Leave vs Remain. The interesting bit will be how many votes the Conservatives and Labour get. My bet is not many.

[Tyke]

2 minutes ago, timewarp said:

Not many surprises there I suppose. It's Brexit party vs Lib Dems, aka Leave vs Remain. The interesting bit will be how many votes the Conservatives and Labour get. My bet is not many.

I didn't vote for any of those parties you name. Nor UKIP!

[Skycaptain]

Conservatives and Labour will get quite a lot of votes. There's a phenomenon, not just in Britain, where a very sizeable percentage is of the electorate will vote for the same party in every election no matter what, simply because they always have done. 

[daveb]

46 minutes ago, michaeld said:

In fairness, even American presidents probably don't have to be born in America. I say probably because there is some difference of opinion among legal experts, and it hasn't been tested out in the courts. The general consensus though is that anyone who is a US citizen from birth qualifies - which includes anyone born in the USA but also anyone born outside the USA to two American parents. Thus McCain and Cruz would probably have been eligible despite being born outside the USA.

 

Bonar Law (1858-1923) is our only Prime Minister born outside the British Isles: New Brunswick in his case, which admittedly was a British colony at the time.

Yeah, the Constitution (Article II, Section 1) says:

Quote

No Person except a natural born Citizen, or a Citizen of the United States, at the time of the Adoption of this Constitution, shall be eligible to the Office of President; neither shall any person be eligible to that Office who shall not have attained to the Age of thirty five Years, and been fourteen Years a Resident within the United States.

Natural born citizen doesn't mean they have to be born in the US. It just means they have to be a citizen by birth, rather than acquiring citizenship later.

 

For more info on the term "natural born citizen" this article covers it pretty well: https://harvardlawreview.org/2015/03/on-the-meaning-of-natural-born-citizen/.

The only people who really dispute it are people like Trump.

[michaeld]

It's 10pm. Let's see what happens.

[michaeld]

Apparently other countries have exit polls but for some reason we don't. Apparently Greens did well in Germany and Le Pen might have beaten Macron in France.

[michaeld]

Gah - lib dems did well but not quite enough to get a seat in the North East. Two to the Brexit party, one to Labour.

[Skycaptain]

This is prortional representation. So each region is aggregated and seats allocated 

 

As the turnout is estimated at 35-40%, I think the only mandate from this is that the population are increasingly brasses off with all this. 

[timewarp]

26 minutes ago, Skycaptain said:

This is prortional representation. So each region is aggregated and seats allocated

It's the first time I realise the voting system for the EU elections around here. Personally I think this is taking the piss of proportional representation. It still favours the big parties, so it's not what proportional representation should be like. I've always disliked the Spanish voting system for the same reason.

[Skycaptain]

Labour and Conservatives are both getting slaughtered 

 

The two winners so far are Brexit and Libdems, the two parties who are clear and unequivocal about their views on Brexit. I'm surprised how well the Greens are doing, given how little their campaign has been reported. 

However, as I said before, the turnout is so low that we can't take this as a conclusive opinion of the country 

[timewarp]

1 minute ago, Skycaptain said:

Labour and Conservatives are both getting slaughtered

Well, they are amongst the small parties now. It teaches them a lesson about the voting system. That's probably the most positive result of this particular election.

[Tyke]

I know a number of people who voted Green. They are at least ethical and environmental in their aims. And whilst they are pro-EU, they aren't just as much so as the Lib-Dems (who seem to have no real policies other than hold a second referendum and hope they like that result better). So the Greens are picking up Brexit supporting voters who couldn't bring themselves to support Farage (or UKIP).

[michaeld]

It's frustrating how fragmented the pro-remain forces are in comparison to the leave vote.

[michaeld]

Haha two MEPs called Alexandra Philips elected in the South East - one Brexit and one Green.