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UK Teresa May's post-brexit immigration policy

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Skycaptain

She won the confidence vote by a clear margin

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ben8884

Yeah but this was not a victory for May. She basically won a vote she was expected to win by about 43 votes. She still has to submit her deal through Parliament and many Conservatives are not going to back it. Little has changed and this confidence vote was in many ways a waste of time. I say its time for referendum III 

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Muledeer

Wasn't the core issue of Brexit (and this thread) about immigration?  I hear almost nothing about that now.  It seems to devolved into a clusterfuck of politicians trying to make the best of a very bad decision by the British people.  But the politicians who were in favor of Brexit in the first place have no idea how to make it work.  May survived her vote today because she is determined to make Brexit happen.

 

By the way, what does MP stand for?  My Parliamentarian?

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daveb
33 minutes ago, Muledeer said:

By the way, what does MP stand for?

I think it's Member of Parliament.

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Muledeer
19 minutes ago, daveb said:

I think it's Member of Parliament.

wouldn't that be a MOP? 😉

 

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Ortac
8 hours ago, ben8884 said:

Time for a 3rd referendum!

Have there already been two on this issue? I thought there had only been one referendum so far. 

 

The danger of that is that if they allow another referendum with "no deal" as a possible option, that would be a huge, huge risk, because there could be enough people who would be stupid enough and arrogant enough to vote for that. Nobody who actually understands how business works and how the economy works and how it affects everyone would in their right mind want that, but most people are not very knowledgeable on such matters. 

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Skycaptain

The reason that immigration isn't mentioned is because it really was a non-issue. 

It was a combination of Putin, aided and abetted by UKIP and the British media who codded the gullible and the inherently racist into believing that if we voted remain then every Muslim in Asia Minor would invade Britain with an asylum application in one hand and a semtex overcoat in the other. 

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Guest Jetsun Milarepa

We must be a laughing stock (visibly now, although I suspect we've been that for at least a generation now...)

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timewarp
5 hours ago, Muledeer said:

Wasn't the core issue of Brexit (and this thread) about immigration?  I hear almost nothing about that now.  It seems to devolved into a clusterfuck of politicians trying to make the best of a very bad decision by the British people.  But the politicians who were in favor of Brexit in the first place have no idea how to make it work.  May survived her vote today because she is determined to make Brexit happen.

 

By the way, what does MP stand for?  My Parliamentarian?

You haven't heard about immigration recently? Well, let me help you on that.

 

https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2018/dec/12/chinese-women-trafficked-uk-failed-home-office-medical

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/asylum-seekers-home-office-zimbabwe-immigration-embassy-political-persecution-africa-a8675571.html

 

This is the kind of thing the Home Office has been doing ever since Theresa May became home secretary. You'll surely also have heard about what happened to people of the Windrush generation and their descendants. If British politicians had any decency, this woman would not be allowed to be Prime Minister.

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timewarp
55 minutes ago, Sleighcaptain said:

The reason that immigration isn't mentioned is because it really was a non-issue. 

It was a combination of Putin, aided and abetted by UKIP and the British media who codded the gullible and the inherently racist into believing that if we voted remain then every Muslim in Asia Minor would invade Britain with an asylum application in one hand and a semtex overcoat in the other. 

In my opinion it is actually a very big issue because large chunks of the governing party pursue anti-immigrant policies. Just a few days ago a Tory MP demanded that it should be made easier to deport EU citizens.

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ben8884
3 hours ago, Ortac said:

Have there already been two on this issue? I thought there had only been one referendum so far. 

 

The danger of that is that if they allow another referendum with "no deal" as a possible option, that would be a huge, huge risk, because there could be enough people who would be stupid enough and arrogant enough to vote for that. Nobody who actually understands how business works and how the economy works and how it affects everyone would in their right mind want that, but most people are not very knowledgeable on such matters. 

The first referendum was held in 1975. Britain joined under Heath in 1973, then in 1974 Labour came to power and decided that there should be a referendum. So this would be the third.

i dunno, a majority now supports remain.

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Anthracite_Impreza

I'd say another referendum is the only option now; she can't get the deal through, she can't renegotiate and we're quickly running out of time.

 

Of course, that would be the sensible option, so it probably won't happen.

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Ortac

I read something interesting somewhere; I am sorry I can't remember where or what the source was so I can't attest to the accuracy of this, but it stated that by January 2019, if there was another public vote along the same lines as the 2016 vote, and assuming that nobody at all had changed their minds, the result would swing the other way in favour of remain.

 

The reason for this is that the young more favoured remain whilst the elderly favoured leave. When you take into account  the number of leave voters from 2016 who will have died by January 2019, and the number of young people supporting remain who were too young to be allowed to vote in the 2016 vote but who have since turned 18, this would be enough to swing the result the other way. 

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Blaiddmelyn
6 hours ago, ben8884 said:

The first referendum was held in 1975. Britain joined under Heath in 1973, then in 1974 Labour came to power and decided that there should be a referendum. So this would be the third.

i dunno, a majority now supports remain.

They thought before the last referendum that a majority supported remain and that was wrong.

 

I think people would vote No Deal without realising what that meant. Not sure a referedndum at this stage is feasible

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ben8884

Whatever happens-and at this stage no deal Brexit seems most likely, I think that British trust in Parliament will be at an all time low and the country will be more divided since the invasion of Iraq. At this point there is nothing to be lost by a third referendum-people already think the government is incompetent and the nation has already been torn apart. At least a referendum on the deal puts some power back into the hands of the people.  

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michaeld

Another referendum with a huge majority for remain (at least 70%) is the only way I can see of ending this mess. If leave wins again, we're done for. If remain wins only by a narrow margin, it won't settle anything.

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ben8884

I think a referendum will end it regardless. If we hold one based on this deal or remaining and this deal wins, MPs will have to let it pass, if remain wins there is no longer a need for a vote. Either way, its settled.  

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Tanwen
On 12/11/2018 at 9:42 PM, Sleighcaptain said:

It's not the government's fault. It was mass media and a few racist muppet with loud mouths conning the Alf Garnret generation

I really resent that! In fact I'm so angry I could spit! How dare you make such sweeping statements, in effect saying that the older generation are muppets who cannot think straight. Well, I have news for you - I may not be the sharpest knife in the drawer but I was NOT influenced by the hype from either side. I was NOT CONNED!

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iff

In the original referendum on leaving the EU, was northern Ireland given any thought with the irish-northern Irish border?

 

I am also a little bit concerned that some politicians (farage, mogg, patel for example) are using this to stoke anti-irish sentiment. Mogg strikes me as a Scooby doo villain ("we'd have gotten everything we wanted if it wasn't for those meddling Irish".) 

 

Has any of the brexit supporters came up with a solution to the Irish border question that is viable that would take the UK out of the customs unite but maintain the soft border between Ireland and UK so that the only difference is that speeds are in mph instead of kmph and one has a broken line, the other doesn't?

No, because there is no viable solution that would satisfy everyone.

 

From the leaders of brexit, there only ideas come from bad sci-fi movies or stoner comedies "oh my god, what if we had x-ray video specs to see through moving lorries and cargo in containers" "omg, that would be fan. What about terminator eyes where you can just see the details of people by looking at them without needing a hard border"

 

Talk of going back to EU to renegotiate, may has to get the support of her party and a few other MPs, on the EU side, a renegotiate plan would need to get the support of the remaining 27 states .

 

What about businesses, May's government has left this to 100 days to tell people to plan for no deal, it is not enough time for businesses to put in contingency plans . the UK businesses are left in limbo and don't know what is the position in the short term, medium term or long term. It is terrible for business, this uncertainty.

 

If may wants a better deal, she needs to extend the period which as the ecj decided, she can do unilaterally.

 

If may wants to give businesses more time to prepare, she needs to extend the period. If not, it will really 

 

It really is a pity that labour in opposition under corbyn is coming across to me as inept and unable to formulate coherent policy on exiting the eu either. I think corbyn is really in favour of leaving the eu (maybe not May's plan) but from the referendum, he was ineffective and I don't think he had heart or belief in the few words he had said in favour of remaining.

 

I'm not sure lib dems still exist either (ok I know they do but they are voiceless)

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michaeld

Ireland was given some consideration during the referendum, but in hindsight not nearly as much as it should have been. I agree with you: there is basically no viable solution to the problem except a) remain in the EU, b) join the EEA instead, leaving the EU but preserving freedom of movement. The latter would have been ok, albeit worse than staying in the EU, but it's been firmly ruled out by the "leave means leave" rhetoric. (Which is funny as the EEA was mentioned as a good option for leaving, before the referendum...)

 

" If may wants a better deal, she needs to extend the period which as the ecj decided, she can do unilaterally.  "

That's not my understanding. I thought the ECJ ruled that the UK can unilaterally cancel Article 50 (and thus Brexit) up till the deadline. I'm not aware we can unilaterally extend the negotiation period; I thought that would need the agreement of all the EU states?

 

edit: regarding the first paragraph, there are actually other possibilities. One would have been letting NI effectively stay within the customs union / freedom of movement area, while the rest of the UK left. The DUP would block it, but if they were out of the picture, I think most of N.Ireland, including the more moderate unionists, might have accepted it. Another would be to reunify Ireland...  And of course yet another would be for the Republic of Ireland to agree to leave the EU as well, thus solving the problem. This last possibility might not be the most likely...

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iff
13 minutes ago, michaeld said:

 

" If may wants a better deal, she needs to extend the period which as the ecj decided, she can do unilaterally.  "

That's not my understanding. I thought the ECJ ruled that the UK can unilaterally cancel Article 50 (and thus Brexit) up till the deadline. I'm not aware we can unilaterally extend the negotiation period; I thought that would need the agreement of all the EU states?

Sorry I was wrong on that point

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ben8884

my recollection was that the referendum people talked about Northern Ireland and also Gibraltar but the mentality of the government was to negotiate the things the UK and EU basically already agree on and deal with the messier stuff later when by then most of the agreement would be hashed out. 

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Ortac

I find it extremely shocking but not surprising that Theresa May and her government would allow the UK to crash out of the European Union with no deal rather than rescind article 50 if that is the only alternative. They absolutely do not have the mandate to allow a no deal situation. Had the vote in the referendum been 90+ percent in favour of leaving, then maybe, but 52% is no way a strong enough mandate to force such a hugely fundamental change to the status quo upon such a large number of people who don't want it, even if they are a slim minority.

 

These vehement hard core leavers are mainly people who live in areas of England outside London, and I would say that they are being extremely selfish and egocentric in their attitudes. They have probably never set foot in places like Northern Ireland or Gibraltar, and to them these places probably feel like some distant land. Out of sight, out of mind. The people who live in these places, as well as 3 million plus British people who exercised their right to free movement to live in other European countries, could all be drastically affected by Brexit to the extent of having their lives ruined, and for what? What benefits do these little Englanders think they are going to get from Brexit? Some perceived abstract ideology of "taking back control"? More money for their precious NHS? Nonsense. If anything, Brexit will be to the detriment of the NHS, not any benefit. I doubt many of them know much about the EU and how it works, they just know that they hate it and they want out of it. 

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Skycaptain

It's the "free movement" issue. It's quite alright for Britains to buy half of Bulgaria to use as holiday homes, so long as the displaced Bulgarians don't come here looking for work 😋 😋 

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Sally
On 12/12/2018 at 11:47 PM, chandrakirti said:

We must be a laughing stock (visibly now, although I suspect we've been that for at least a generation now...)

No, I'm afraid that America has the corner on that.  

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ben8884
3 hours ago, Ortac said:

 If anything, Brexit will be to the detriment of the NHS, not any benefit.

Especially when you consider how many European staff work in NHS hospitals, this may well be true.

 

Quote

I doubt many of them know much about the EU and how it works, they just know that they hate it and they want out of it. 

So fun fact about me, when I was very young I liked the EU however for most of my schooling and when I studied politics I was a staunch Brexiter. I left England and never really thought about it until the referendum came up and decided to look into it. Once I looked into it honestly I realized that as a British worker the EU had done more for me than any government in Downing Street. I also began to see its a lot more democratic than we had been left to believe. I am not saying everyone who voted for Brexit doesn't know how the EU works or understands the issues but I didn't. 

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timewarp
12 hours ago, festiff said:

What about businesses, May's government has left this to 100 days to tell people to plan for no deal, it is not enough time for businesses to put in contingency plans . the UK businesses are left in limbo and don't know what is the position in the short term, medium term or long term. It is terrible for business, this uncertainty.

 

If may wants a better deal, she needs to extend the period which as the ecj decided, she can do unilaterally.

 

If may wants to give businesses more time to prepare, she needs to extend the period. If not, it will really 

Don't worry about businesses. If they don't get certainty they create their own. Most businesses will have triggered their contingency plans by Christmas. A lot of them have already done it within the last few weeks. There's already a massive flow of investments from the UK to continental Europe and Ireland.

 

What politicians - and I'm afraid voters even more - don't seem to understand is the simple fact that businesses are about making profit. They will always choose the most profitable option over the most red-white-and-blue one. This is why the brexiteer James Dyson has all his manufacturing in Malaysia rather than creating jobs in Britain.

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Ortac

Hi @ben8884

 

I don't believe either that everyone who voted for the UK to leave the EU did not understand the issues, but I do believe that the vote was swung that way by a significant number of people who do not.

 

Some of the crap that I have read by people posted online is just scary. I have seen appalling comments such as "I voted to leave because I want the UK to bring back hanging and the EU prohibits capital punishment", and "I voted to leave because my town is overrun with Pakistanis". Shows the level of intelligence that some people have if they think that Pakistan has anything to do with the European Union.

 

I think it raises the question of whether so called democracy is really a good thing. Democracy is about everyone having a vote, but it really a good idea to allow someone to vote on something about which they do not have sufficient knowledgeable?

 

I also have an interesting little story about that. When I was in school around the age of 13 or 14, I was in a German lesson. The teacher divided the class into two teams to compete against each other in quiz. Our text book had a range of multiple choice questions about schools in Germany, and how school life in Germany compared to our own.

 

We faced the problem that there was about twelve of us in the team, but we had to come up with a single answer to each question that we agreed on. The team I was in decided that the way to do it was to have a "democratic vote" on each question, and the answer that most people thought was the right one would be the answer our team submitted as a whole. I totally agreed with this approach.

 

The other team did not take this approach. What happened? The other team absolutely thrashed us. We ended up with something like two or three correct answers out of ten, whilst the other team got every single question right.

 

The truth was nobody in either team knew anything much at all about schools in Germany, yet someone in the other team had noticed that the photographs and sample school time table printed in the text book in the pages before the quiz effectively gave away the correct answers to anyone who was astute enough to spot them. That person had taken charge of the entire team and said "Right, this is clearly the right answer, I am putting it as our final answer. All agreed? Good!"

 

Our team had been so focused and preoccupied with carrying out our "democratic vote" process for each question, that we completely failed to spot what the other team had. I have always remembered that, because it taught me a very important lesson. I think it is a lesson that a lot of other people would benefit from as well.

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Ortac
On 12/19/2018 at 11:15 AM, rudolph the timewarp said:

This is why the brexiteer James Dyson has all his manufacturing in Malaysia rather than creating jobs in Britain.

That man's opinion on Brexit puts him at odds with almost every other entrepreneur and business leader. It would seem that he's living in a vacuum.

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Anthracite_Impreza
15 minutes ago, Ortac said:

It would seem that he's living in a vacuum.

I see what you did there.

 

I've given up giving a shit now, they'll only do what they want without regard of logic or morality. I'm getting new non-EU plates for my cars soon anyway.

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