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Cheshire-Cat

UK Teresa May's post-brexit immigration policy

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gaogao
11 hours ago, Ortac said:

worst case scenario is that you will have to queue for ages and then face an interrogation about your intentions, finances, and personal life

I already have to do this to get into the UK, because I am a non-EU citizen (commonwealth citizen) who has permanent residency here.

 

I'm so glad I didn't apply for British citizenship when I could - I considered it because EU citizenship was a good prospect that came along with it but when the UK leaves and free movement is ended my current passport will be no different from a British passport. Looking forward to waiting in line to get into the UK with my EU girlfriend when we go for holiday, provided she's allowed back into the country after leaving at all.

 

1 hour ago, Ortac said:

If the UK leaves with no deal, it could wreck lives. 

 

No, correction - it WILL wreck lives. 

The amount of uncertainty that's happening right now is i think already wrecking lives. 

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Browncoat10
6 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

You can't just blame the government. The vast majority of the print media are pro-Brexit. We have a free press, so unless laws like libel are broken they can print whatever opinion they want. It's not hyperbole to say that whichever political party has the backing of the majority of the red top press will win the next election. So if Murdoch is Pro-Brexit, as the biggest selling newspaper publisher, politicians need to be pro-Brexit to keep his support 

That's a very good point. I absolutely do blame the government, they have zero workable Brexit strategy and are refusing a People's Vote, plus even outside of Brexit this Tory government has been an absolute disaster and is populated by some of the worst individuals I've seen in the same cabinet in my lifetime...

 

But the press is probably even worse. (Not hugely relevant, but on the subject of Murdoch, has anyone seen Succession? Great TV show.)

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Tanwen

It is the uncertainty which is causing so much disruption. The 'leave' campaign was run on fear of the unknown - our economy would collapse (which it hasn't), no one  would want to trade with us (Japan and other countries world wide) want to open trade talks. It isn't looking a dark as the remainers keep telling us. 

 

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/jun/26/an-seeks-early-free-trade-talks-with-uk-amid-brexit-fears-shinzo-abe

 

The EU will miss our financial contributions - we are the 4th largest contributor but 6th recipient - that's going to take some replacing. Mainly we were lied to in the '76 referendum. Heath knew that closer political ties was the long term aim - but the EEC (as it was then) was sold to us as a trading organisation only, along the lines of EFTA. Had we know that at the time it could have made a big difference in the vote. The European Commission is a largely unelected organisation which doesn't even comply with its own rules; and there were many years the auditors refused to sign off the accounts because of 'irregularities'

 

As for a 'Peoples vote' - who voted in the last one? Aliens from Alpha Centauri?

 

 

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timewarp
On 10/15/2018 at 3:06 PM, Tanwen said:

The EU will miss our financial contributions - we are the 4th largest contributor but 6th recipient - that's going to take some replacing.

Let's take the example of 2016. The UK's net contribution was 8.6 billion pounds, whereas the GDP was 2 trillion pounds that year. Which means the net contribution was about 0.43% of GDP. Even the most optimistic estimates predict that the UK economy will lose out at least 1 or 2%. This is what is always, always forgotten when people complain about the net contribution.

 

Mind you, in Germany people rarely complain about this despite being the largest net contributor and not having the (unfair) rebate that Britain has. Why? Because everybody acknowledges the simple fact that the German economy is benefiting enormously from being an EU member.

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Cheshire-Cat

At least one advantage for the EU is that we've made such a car crash of it no one else should want to give it a go.

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Scott1989

What scares me about brexit, is it will probably trigger another indyref in Scotland, especially in a no deal situation, and it'll win this time.

 

Which will mean the SNP will be in power more. I (for admitantly stupid personal reasons) don't like them. And it'll cause more keyboard politic warriors everywhere, again.

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iff
On 10/15/2018 at 3:06 PM, Tanwen said:

 

The EU will miss our financial contributions - we are the 4th largest contributor but 6th recipient - that's going to take some replacing

I think a cause is the difference in agriculture in UK as compared to rest of EU

 

 

http://www.europarl.europa.eu/external/html/budgetataglance/default_en.html#united_kingdom

 

54% of the money UK received went to agriculture. Ireland for example has a lower population density, 80% of the money received for Ireland went towards agriculture. The big thing is the common agricultural policy.

 

https://www.countryfile.com/news/can-the-uk-feed-itself-after-brexit/

 



As for a 'Peoples vote' - who voted in the last one? Aliens from Alpha Centauri?

 

Although on referendums, Arlene foster, leader of the DUP, says the good Friday agreement can be changed.  But as the good Friday agreement had been approved by both referendums in northern Ireland and Ireland (and is part of the Irish constitution). This would need to be borne in mind on any exit agreement  as would such an agreement if it goes in contrast to good Friday agreement, need to be voted by both northern Ireland and Ireland?

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Guest Jetsun Milarepa

...as far as I'm aware there are hardly any post brexit policies!😆

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iff
9 hours ago, chandrakirti said:

...as far as I'm aware there are hardly any post brexit policies!😆

An pro brexit mp, brigden thinks he can just get for an Irish citizenship because he is from the UK, confusing issue of citizenship and being part of a common travel area 

 

https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/home-news/irish-passport-england-uk-andrew-bridgen-tory-mp-brexit-border-eu-a8587286.html

 

If only that was as easy as that. My (english born) cousin's application was as easy as brigden thought, who has had difficulty on this.

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timewarp

"Dyson is just the latest in a long list of leavers promising a glorious Brexit future while secretly making plans to cover themselves when the shit hits the Dyson AM06 high-velocity cooling fan with Air Multiplier™ technology."

 

Just needed to share this. It's so beautifully phrased. :lol:

 

(It's from this comment.)

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ben8884

May reckons Brexit is 95% done meanwhile Germany is looking at a no deal scenario.

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Telecaster68

Much as I wish we'd stayed in and leaving is just a stupid idea and probably will be a disaster, I don't think we can read much of anything into what anyone's saying at this point. All negotiations, especially EU negotiations go up to the wire (and beyond), and the comments to the media are part of those negotiations. In all probably there'll be some kind of deal, but it won't be resolved till the absolutely literally the last minute.

 

I suspect the deal will boil down to the UK effectively being part of the customs union, most freedom of movement staying, and in general, effectively being part of the EU but without any say in its future, but also without paying any subs. It won't be cost free, but the costs will be hidden so the government doesn't have to 'fess up to them.

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Cheshire-Cat

I imagine we'll end up keeping the bits people wanted gone, and the bits that people actually wanted will be the bits that go. Whatever option we go for now we're going to get a seriously bum deal.

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ben8884
On 10/25/2018 at 10:10 AM, Telecaster68 said:

I suspect the deal will boil down to the UK effectively being part of the customs union, most freedom of movement staying, and in general, effectively being part of the EU but without any say in its future, but also without paying any subs. It won't be cost free, but the costs will be hidden so the government doesn't have to 'fess up to them.

I basically agree except I think freedom of movement will be gone. Both the EU and the UK can agree on this...it may be just about the only thing they agree on. What I love is how tabloid headlines are all like "The Europeans may charge us money for visas!? How dare they!?!?!?"

As if they are shocked that getting rid of freedom of movement cuts both ways.

But yeah, basically lots if hidden costs and EU regulations we still need to follow but no MEPs or Commissioners. Price to pay for free trade. 

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Cheshire-Cat

See freedom of movement is one thing I think may have to stay. The reality is in order to remove freedom of movement you HAVE to have a hard border. That includes a hard border with Ireland. This is something the DUP (who May needs on side) is dead against. They won't have a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland because it would be difficult to implement and would have a massive knock on effect with trade, and they also won't have a hard border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain because they feel that cuts them off from the rest of the UK. However, without a hard border you have to have freedom of movement with Europe because otherwise anyone from Europe could just go in and out of the UK via Ireland with no checks what-so-ever. I live near one of the Ferry ports to Ireland and to create a hard border at the port would require massive infrastructure changes. In it's current state there is no way the port could maintain a hard border.

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Skycaptain

So far as I'm concerned the removal of my European Citizenship is a breach of my human rights, so this should be declared illegal, and Brexit annulled. If people want to disassociate themselves from Europe they may do, as that is their human right. So we must have a two tier system, every law accepting in or out, or nothing is within the law 

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Ortac
7 hours ago, Skycaptain said:

So far as I'm concerned the removal of my European Citizenship is a breach of my human rights, so this should be declared illegal, and Brexit annulled. If people want to disassociate themselves from Europe they may do, as that is their human right. So we must have a two tier system, every law accepting in or out, or nothing is within the law 

There was a suggestion by a Luxembourg MEP shortly after the vote in 2016 of implementing a system of "associate citzenship" for Brits who felt this way.

https://www.euractiv.com/section/economy-jobs/interview/charles-goerens-associate-citizenship-for-brits-is-an-offer-not-an-obligation/

 

There have also more recently been little publicised (in the UK media at least) court challenges in Amsterdam about whether it would be legal for British citizens to be stripped of their European citizenship as a result of Brexit. The way things are looking now it seems unlikely that either of these things are going  to come to anything unfortunately.

 

I used to be something of an anglophile; I admired the UK as being more dynamic and business friendly than France. I certainly don't admire it any more. The brexit supporters and the prime minister of the United Kingdom harp on about "democracy" and the "will of the people". But it seems that they have in their minds rounded 52% up to 100% and rounded 48% down to zero. I do feel for all the Brits who are against all this madness and who have been right from the start who are now being dragged through it against their will.

 

 

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Ortac
13 hours ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

See freedom of movement is one thing I think may have to stay. The reality is in order to remove freedom of movement you HAVE to have a hard border. That includes a hard border with Ireland. This is something the DUP (who May needs on side) is dead against. They won't have a hard border between Ireland and Northern Ireland because it would be difficult to implement and would have a massive knock on effect with trade, and they also won't have a hard border between Northern Ireland and Great Britain because they feel that cuts them off from the rest of the UK. However, without a hard border you have to have freedom of movement with Europe because otherwise anyone from Europe could just go in and out of the UK via Ireland with no checks what-so-ever. I live near one of the Ferry ports to Ireland and to create a hard border at the port would require massive infrastructure changes. In it's current state there is no way the port could maintain a hard border.

I appreciate what you say, however the nature of your statement suggests a misunderstanding.

 

The term “freedom of movement” in terms of how it applies in the context of the European Union does not really mean that in a literal sense; it is actually referring to the automatic right of people who are citizens of a country within the European Union to reside and seek employment in another country in the European Union without the need for work visas, bureaucracy and red tape that someone from elsewhere in the world would have to face.

 

What you appear to be referring to is freedom of movement in a more literal sense, such as causal travel and holidays, for which the situation is different.

 

Most countries in the European Union plus Iceland, Norway and Switzerland are part of the Schengen area. This is a large single common travel area in which you can move freely from one country to another without facing border officers or passport checks.

 

The Irish Republic and the UK are (right now at least) in the EU but are not part of Schengen. To travel between the Republic of Ireland and anywhere in mainland Europe, you need to show your passport or national identity card, despite the fact you are travelling between two countries in the EU. This is unlikely to change, so it will still be possible to the UK to continue to allow people to travel between them and Ireland with no passport checks without any fear that Ireland could be used as a back door into the UK.

 

Regardless of whether people are required to show their passports or identity cards to physically move between countries, their automatic right to reside and seek employment in a different country is a separate issue altogether, and that is what is under threat here.

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timewarp
13 hours ago, ben8884 said:

I basically agree except I think freedom of movement will be gone. Both the EU and the UK can agree on this...it may be just about the only thing they agree on. What I love is how tabloid headlines are all like "The Europeans may charge us money for visas!? How dare they!?!?!?"

As if they are shocked that getting rid of freedom of movement cuts both ways.

But yeah, basically lots if hidden costs and EU regulations we still need to follow but no MEPs or Commissioners. Price to pay for free trade. 

Freedom of movement is one of four freedoms that the EU will never allow to separate. Freedom of movement can only stop if a Canada-style free trade agreement, or less, is agreed. It's the old story about the cake. With cherries on top.

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ben8884
5 hours ago, timewarp said:

Freedom of movement is one of four freedoms that the EU will never allow to separate. Freedom of movement can only stop if a Canada-style free trade agreement, or less, is agreed. It's the old story about the cake. With cherries on top.

As a UK citizen myself, I hope you are right however, most people who voted for Brexit I suspect voted to end freedom of movement and I am not sure May or any British PM can take any deal to Parliament with freedom  of movement included. 

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Skycaptain

Freedom of immigration is likely to be less of an issue than freedom of emigration, and especially the transfer of capital overseas. If we're not careful I can see a return to the dark days of the 70's 

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timewarp
8 hours ago, ben8884 said:

As a UK citizen myself, I hope you are right however, most people who voted for Brexit I suspect voted to end freedom of movement and I am not sure May or any British PM can take any deal to Parliament with freedom  of movement included. 

Yeah, but there's also the European parliament and 27 national parliaments. Separating the four freedoms will not get through, no matter how hard the UK government tries. Switzerland had a referendum on ending freedom of movement and so far the only proposal that the EU hasn't refused right away was "Inländervorrang light", which means that jobs would need to get advertised at local job centres first and could only then be advertised elsewhere. But that won't happen because the SVP - like the Tories - doesn't agree on that kind of thing. They want something more radical. End result is that the referendum - or The Will of The People as the British media would call it - cannot be implemented. And this is the big difference - Switzerland doesn't have a time limit of two years, so they don't really need to worry about anything and can just carry on negotiating as long as it might take.

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iff

My parents got letter from aviva saying that if no deal brexit, they would need to apply to court in Scotland to transfer the policy from the UK company to a new Irish company aviva DAC yesterday.

 

Without any one knowing the position, insurance company from the UK and those insuring people in the UK need to be making plans for how they can deal with policies as they might be voided if UK leave the common market without agreement.

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Ortac
9 hours ago, timewarp said:

Well, this is interesting. A significant chunk of the British public still believe the 350 million per week nonsense. I guess they are simply not interested in facts.

 

Holding that referendum in the first place was a hugely stupid thing for the British government to do, especially in such an ill thought out manner. An obscure binary question with a yes or no answer which could be interpreted to mean anything? Absolute madness! If you are going to have a public vote, there should be several detailed and well defined options, and voting should be on a preferential and transferable vote basis.

 

I believe the truth is that the public at large do not have the level of knowledge or intelligence necessary for them to be trusted to make objective, reasoned, and well thought out decisions on matters which are important to the prosperity and security of the nation. Margaret Thatcher knew that. Emmanuel Macron definitely knows that, he has as good as said it publicly.

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Cheshire-Cat

To be honest the whole referendum was based on lies and mis-truths. And I think there should have been a minimum (such as 60%) vote yes in order to leave. The poll was too close for my liking but there we go. Can't change it now.

 

In other news we're going to get a brexit 50p. Whether or not 50p will be worth much soon remains to be seen.

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Skycaptain

Will that Brexit 50p burn the fingers of everyone who touches it 

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Amnesiac
4 hours ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

Can't change it now.

We should be able to, though, but nothing in this current situation is at all democratic. I get sick of the attitude that we've voted for this and that's it, as if people can't change their mind after seeing the current government lead us from one disaster to another. After all, people changing their minds when presented with new facts would be the exact democracy that Brexiteers seem to always mention and fail to grasp.

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timewarp
10 hours ago, Amnesiac said:

We should be able to, though, but nothing in this current situation is at all democratic.

Reminds me of this cartoon about direct democracy in Switzerland:

 

https://img.nzz.ch/C=W2369,H1820,X92,Y117/S=W560/O=75/https://nzz-img.s3.amazonaws.com/2018/10/26/3609910c-b1ec-4e75-be65-c4a20a1658cd.png

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Ortac
On 10/29/2018 at 8:31 AM, Cheshire-Cat said:

In other news we're going to get a brexit 50p.

I checked that out online and I couldn't quite believe how cringeworthy and naive it is. It contains the words "friendship with all nations". Well, United Kingdom, I am sorry to be blunt but friendship must be mutual between two parties. And considering that you have upset a few nations recently, it is possible that they may no longer want to be friends with you. 

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