Cheshire-Cat

UK Teresa May's post-brexit immigration policy

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Cheshire-Cat

Teresa May has announced that post-Brexit the UK will effectively be closed to low skilled immigration with immigrants needing to have a job earning at least £30k. Obviously this rules out huge portions of immigrants that fill jobs Britain's just don't want, or don't have the skills for, such as construction and health care from carers to nurses. Although businesses do need to work at improving inclusion for those with disabilities and the like in many areas this just isn't possible. So it looks like huge areas of our job market could be left with unfilled positions as companies are unable to get the required people from within the UK, and will no longer be able to employ those from outside the UK.

 

Dare I say but why did we think that handing full control of the country to these people was a good idea?!

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timewarp

At this point it's just an idea. It remains to be seen if there is a parliamentary majority for implementing it and everything that is necessary for this. Notably it is politically impossible without a no-deal Brexit (if you don't believe this, have a look at the state of the negotiations between the EU and Switzerland).

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Browncoat10

Yes but no-deal is looking increasingly likely.

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Cheshire-Cat

I think we're left with the option of no deal or dreadful deal, of which neither is appealing.

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Tunhope

I don't include myself in  the 'we'. It's not something I wanted.

 

3 hours ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

 

Dare I say but why did we think that handing full control of the country to these people was a good idea?!

 

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Skycaptain

Hopefully they'll do something which breaches the war crimes act, otherwise Britain is ruined 

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Gresla

I'm not optimistic at all actually, there are many industries which depend on immigrant labour and a lot of these industries are going to suffer. This isn't going to end well, is it?

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Cheshire-Cat

No I don't think it is. Any of it to be honest.

 

And Tunhope it's certainly not what I voted for! Where I am it tended to be the older generation who were pro-brexit, and the younger generation who were anti-brexit. But the older generation are more likely to go and vote.

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Browncoat10

Plus it's proven that immigrants give more in taxes than they claim in benefits. As a whole. Statistically proven. 

 

This whole thing is a national embarrassment and a mess.

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timewarp
4 hours ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

I think we're left with the option of no deal or dreadful deal, of which neither is appealing.

Not really. The alternatives are either in or out - pick and mix has never been an option. Ironically the ERG and the EU agree on this.

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iff
2 minutes ago, timewarp said:

Not really. The alternatives are either in or out - pick and mix has never been an option. Ironically the ERG and the EU agree on this.

and the talk of an electronically monitored border between ireland and northern ireland is just unrealistic as

1) unless both ireland and the uk has same immigration rules, then you need check point there along the border. you have 150 crossing points between ireland and northern ireland. with the electronic monitoring that tories and dup are talking about, you can see the vehicles that pass through but you can't prove whether the occupants of those vehicles should pass through

2) passage of goods. if northern ireland is not in the same customs union as ireland, then duties need to be applied to the good and vat on point of entry to ireland and if uk continue to use vat, then vat on point of entry to uk. then there are customs & excise duty. no physical checks at border will lead to fraud and smuggling between the places. we can see the vehicles but ****, no idea what is in those vehicles. they could be garlic marked as apples (both are at far difference custom rates. i think apples are cheaper than garlic in customs duty. we had a high profile case where a fruit & veg importer went to prison for marking garlic as apples) , they could be fireworks etc etc.

 

the electronic border does not work and i wince when i hear politicians that should know better, promulgate it while also advocating the exit of the customs union and free movement of people.

 

unless uk is part of the customs union with free movement of people that are allowed to be in both countries, you need a physical between the two countries, you need the border checks between them.

 

i don't think it's theresa may's fault, she was left in a terrible position, an impossible task where no one else wanted the position. cameron knew that it was impossible, johnson didn't want it as it is far easier to shout what is wrong etc etc. david davis when interviewed when he was brexit minister talked about the border between ireland and northern ireland as being an internal border in the uk, no it isn't, it is a border between 2 sovereign countries, ireland and uk, it is not an internal uk border, it is an international border.

 

as an aside, going to a tax lecture, if google maps are reliable on the border points, i actually crossed the irish/uk border twice last tuesday in the space of 100 meters. the motor way exit point exits across what google marks as the border but then a swift turn right brings you back into ireland.

 

sorry for the rant

 

 

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Cheshire-Cat

I know the ferry port where I live certainly couldn't cope in it's current state should border checks come in.

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Anthracite_Impreza

I think we can comfortably say we are all royally fucked.

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daveb

Why does this all sound vaguely familiar... :( 

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Skycaptain

Why do I see the cessation of hostilities by Irish paramilitaries on both sides coming to a sudden, violent halt soon? 

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chandrakirti

Even after the Tory conference ended, I'm really none the wiser as to what the options actually mean. There seems to be so little actual detail. That's what stopped me voting in the original referendum.

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Browncoat10
6 hours ago, chandrakirti said:

Even after the Tory conference ended, I'm really none the wiser as to what the options actually mean. There seems to be so little actual detail. That's what stopped me voting in the original referendum.

The Tories can't give any detail because Brexit, in any form, will harm the country and they can't admit that because they're clearly committed to backing it no matter what. So any "details" they gave as to the positives of Brexit would be flat out lies - much like the ones they spouted during the referendum eg. £350mn a week to the NHS.

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gaogao

I just wish we could just call the whole thing off... I hate all this uncertainty. There are people who are optimistic but when pressed, can't give any answers as to how their optimistic ideas could be achieved. They just accuse you of being fearful/buying into the propaganda if you're worried at all.

 

But we've spent so much money on it already and the people have spoken, so we have to keep going? I guess?

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Browncoat10

There's always the chance of a People's Vote on the final outcome, which the Tories are dead against for some inexplicable reason. But if it happens (they might be forced to agree to it as the thing gains traction) there might be the option to not leave at all, which would obviously be the ideal outcome.

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Cheshire-Cat

I think the Tories are so against a revote as they were the ones that brought up a brexit vote in the first place. And they've spent millions/billions on it already. They wouldn't fancy saying they were wrong!

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Browncoat10
2 hours ago, Cheshire-Cat said:

I think the Tories are so against a revote as they were the ones that brought up a brexit vote in the first place. And they've spent millions/billions on it already. They wouldn't fancy saying they were wrong!

Exactly. Party before country all the way.

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Ortac

I think that it is important for the people of the UK to remember that this works both ways. If the United Kingdom pushes forward in ending freedom of movement as it currently exists, the European Union will reciprocate.

 

Currently, if Brits wish to study, live, work or retire in any of the other 27 EU countries, they have had the automatic right to do that, but it is looking like they will be stripped of that right, and will instead be left to the mercy of the tough residency criteria and bureaucracy of each individual country.

 

A young person wishes to go to university or college in Europe? That will be much more difficult in future. Someone wishes to retire to Spain and enjoy their retirement in warmer climes, as so many British retirees have done over the last three decades? As retirees are no longer economically active, it is very unlikely that they will be meet the criteria to be allowed to reside in Spain in future.

 

Has it occurred to anyone in Britain that their status and rights in Europe will be the same as people from Turkey? Even citizens of countries which are not in the European Union such as Iceland, Greenland, Norway and Switzerland still have the freedom to move and work around Europe. The British will well and truly be isolated second class citizens, stuck on their little island.

 

It is not just those who wish to work or reside in another European country that will face problems, it will also affect those just visiting for holidays. You can kiss goodbye to your precious EHIC cards and say hello to the expense and hassle of having to take out health and travel insurance. Immigration officers at the border will no longer take a quick glance at your passport and wave you on through; worst case scenario is that you will have to queue for ages and then face an interrogation about your intentions, finances, and personal life; similar to what all non US citizens frequently have to go through when entering the USA.

 

It seems to me that the Brits who are vehement supporters of getting the UK out of the EU are very narrowly focused on “taking back control” without really focusing on what they will be throwing away in order to achieve that (taking back control is itself nonsensical; as a member of the EU the UK could veto any EU legislation it didn’t like). I don’t think that anyone currently appreciates exactly what the price of taking back control is likely to be, especially as it hasn’t actually happened yet. Whether they supported leave or remain, I can imagine that the words of that famous Joni Mitchell song will ring true to many Brits after March 2019: "Don’t it always seem to go, you don’t know what you’ve got till it’s gone…”

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timewarp

@Ortac what you say makes sense, but unless the statistics deceive me, none of this will be an issue for typical leave voters. Apart from the occasional holiday in the sun they don't feel the need to leave the country. Queues at the airport wouldn't be an issue for them either as long as they can queue with a blue passport. I really don't believe there is much to lose for them. In that sense I'm also sceptical that a new referendum would give a different result.

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Ortac
17 hours ago, Browncoat10 said:

So any "details" they gave as to the positives of Brexit would be flat out lies - much like the ones they spouted during the referendum eg. £350mn a week to the NHS.

I’ll tell you what irritates me about that. And this is a point that I have not seen or heard anyone else make, but I think it is a hugely important and also a very interesting one.

 

 

I would ask you to consider this question: £350 million a week. Is that a lot of money?

 

 

The trouble is that many people are unable to get their heads around such figures which are many many times greater than the kind of amounts that they would be dealing with as part of their own personal finances. When you get above a certain sum, it just all becomes the same to most people. 50 million? 500 million? 5 billion? 50 billion? The majority of people would only be able to perceive all of those as crazy amounts of money with no more clarity than that. In reality those are four very different figures.

 

So for that reason, there would be a tendency for many people to respond to that question with “What are you nuts!? Of course £350 million is a huge amount of money! How can you think otherwise?”

 

However, quoting any figure on its own like that is completely meaningless without knowing some other figures to put it into context. To establish whether £350 million a week is a lot of money or very little money, it is necessary to look at the entire “profit and loss account of UK plc” to see exactly how much income the government receives and where it spends it.

 

So to  help clarify this, I want to do a little calculation. This is very much a quick “back of the envelope” calculation but should give a rough illustration of the point I want to make.

 

I know that the precise figure has been disputed and /or discredited, but let’s go with that figure of £350 million a week for now. That would be about £18.2 billion per year. A quick Google search reveals an idea of how much income the UK government receives from taxes. Different sites give different figures, but it is in the region of about £750 billion per year.

 

So what I want to do is to shrink both of those figures down to a lower common denominator. Imagine a person who is earning £25,000 per year after taxes, and they are spending £50 per month (or £600 per year) on say a gym membership or cable TV subscription. That is essentially what you can equate the UK’s EU subscription fee to.

 

Looking at it in that context, would you then say that it is a lot of money? Some may say yes, some may say no, but it is perhaps not as much as most people had imagined,  and it certainly puts a different spin on it and enables people better relate to it better than just stating “350 million a week goes to the EU”.

 

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Browncoat10

@Ortac you're preaching to the converted, I can assure you. Hey, can I join you in France and get off this racist little island?

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Pentachromacy

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Cheshire-Cat

The problem is if those people wages go up costs go up. Everything then costs more to compensate and in reality they haven't actually gained anything. It's the giant catch 22 of life.

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Ortac
10 hours ago, timewarp said:

@Ortac what you say makes sense, but unless the statistics deceive me, none of this will be an issue for typical leave voters. Apart from the occasional holiday in the sun they don't feel the need to leave the country. Queues at the airport wouldn't be an issue for them either as long as they can queue with a blue passport. I really don't believe there is much to lose for them. In that sense I'm also sceptical that a new referendum would give a different result.

Yes,  I do realise that. The sad thing is that there are some people who will be very adversely affected by this, and those who are hell bent on getting out of the European Union don't seem to give a damn. Although they may believe otherwise, these people have very little to gain if anything at all, whilst there are other people who have a huge amount to lose. I find it absolutely astonishing that your prime minister has stated that the UK will get out without any deal at all with the EU rather than hold her hands up and admit that the whole saga has been a terrible mistake and that they need to stop or at least postpone brexit because it is not in the best interests of your citizens. 

 

Consider the 1.2 million Brits living in the EU who could be made illegal residents overnight; people in Northern Ireland who rely on crossing the border for work and commerce; the Gibraltarians with Spain breathing down their neck; and people in mainland Britain whose jobs will be threatened. 

 

If the UK leaves with no deal, it could wreck lives. 

 

No, correction - it WILL wreck lives. 

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Ortac
9 hours ago, Browncoat10 said:

@Ortac you're preaching to the converted, I can assure you. Hey, can I join you in France and get off this racist little island?

I would love to say yes, you are welcome; unfortunately though I don't make the rules and it is not my decision. :mellow:

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Skycaptain

You can't just blame the government. The vast majority of the print media are pro-Brexit. We have a free press, so unless laws like libel are broken they can print whatever opinion they want. It's not hyperbole to say that whichever political party has the backing of the majority of the red top press will win the next election. So if Murdoch is Pro-Brexit, as the biggest selling newspaper publisher, politicians need to be pro-Brexit to keep his support 

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