Catalonia has voted for independence

[Skycaptain]

The Catalan parliament (assembly) has voted by 70/10 in favour of independence from Spain. The Spanish Parliament, perhaps unsurprisingly, has rejected this decision, and is considering imposing rule from Madrid. 

 

Questions I'm thinking about are

 

1) what do people think the likely outcome will be? 

2) should the European Union as a whole get involved, and if so, who should they support. 

3)Will this encourage the Basques to take a similar step? 

 

My primary concern is whether this could be the start of a descent into either Martial rule from Madrid, or worse a civil war. How much harm will this do to both the Spanish economy, and food supplies in Europe, as Spain is a major exporter of fruit and vegetables 

[A mere monkey]

I was gonna open this thread myself. I think the government will uphold its duty and crush the coup that a minority of separatists have staged. There won't be a civil war, but I think there will be trouble. But well, I'l not terribly worried myself. No European country supports them, except those who are completely irrelevant. 

As a Spaniard, I hope our leader, for once, moves and puts those separatists in prison. Many businesses left Catalonia in the last month and allowing them to break a country after giving the middle finger to the law multiple times would be an insult to democracy and seals the fate of both Spain and Catalonia. 

I'll wait and see, but I wouldn't think there's a civil war coming. Not even close. As for rule from Madrid, I hope that's the case. Enough indoctrination has been done in schools, perpetrated by the Catalonian government. But personally I would centralize the country, not just a region because he was rebellious. 

[Scott1989]

1) Think you are right about things getting worse before they get better.

2) EU involvement would probably be a double edge sword. They would be seen as needing to do something before it gets worse but doing so may compramise Spanish-EU relations and end up with Spanxit (then the rest of the dominios shortly afterwards?)

3) Think it'll depend on what happens next. Will they want similar results of violence and government issues?

[A mere monkey]

Let me answer the questions more clearly, I was rambling on my previous post. 

 

1) It is uncertain. From what I can gather, people think this will not lead to an actual independence. Myself, I'm glad they did, because that means that now the government has an excuse to lock them up without contemplating the possibility of negotiation. Rome pays no traitors. 

 

2) The only was EU should get involved is in support of Spain. Spain is not the only country that forbids secession or has separatism in some regions, so if the eu allows Catalonia to be independent, they will have trouble at home and that's not desirable. 

 

3) I don't know, the basques seem to be quite comfortable as of yet. I haven't heard anything from them in the past month when all this mess was taking place. But if the independence is fulfilled, the separatists might speak out. But so far I haven't heard of them. 

[Scott1989]

7 minutes ago, A mere monkey said:

No European country supports them, except those who are completely irrelevant. 

There is some interest here in Scotland but that is from those who supports independance here. Think the SNP are watching the situation to see if they can use it to base another referendum here (ignoring the result 3 years ago).

[A mere monkey]

Just now, Scott1989 said:

There is some interest here in Scotland but that is from those who supports independance here. Think the SNP are watching the situation to see if they can use it to base another referendum here (ignoring the result 3 years ago).

Exactly, if EU countries support Catalonia, then separatists in countries like France might have an excuse to do the same for their respective regions. I don't know the UK's stand on the issue, but if they want Scotland to stay, they'd simply keeo quiet about it. 

[Scott1989]

44 minutes ago, A mere monkey said:

Exactly, if EU countries support Catalonia, then separatists in countries like France might have an excuse to do the same for their respective regions. I don't know the UK's stand on the issue, but if they want Scotland to stay, they'd simply keeo quiet about it. 

Last I heard is Brexit means no chance of another referendum until it's done. Think they hope that another party takes power of the Scottish parliment. With people getting sick and tired of hearing about it with little actual results elsewhere from the SNP, this could happen in the next Scottish election.

[Tyke]

It seems that Madrid wouldn't allow a legal referendum, maybe because they feared the result. So Catalonia held one anyway, which many boycotted. That's hardly grounds for a proper UDI. But you can also see the Catalonian regional government's frustration.

 

Like the SNP the Catalans seem to think they could stay in the EU as a separate entity. I can't see the EU buying that (for either of them, but for Catalonia in particular, as their process wasn't definitely constitutional). I wonder what currency the Catalan Government thinks it will be using/issuing? The Euro, presumably. But they have no power to issue currency. It's all rather a mess, isn't it?

 

Answers to questions

 

1. I'm not a fan of the EU as it is constructed and operates. It needs reform. As it gets larger and larger and government becomes more centralised and distant, there will be increased calls for the return of power to more historic and smaller regions (Brexit, Scottish Nationalism are but two examples). I hope that no blood is spilled. I hope the Catalans get an opportunity to assess their position as a separate entity and vote on it legally. And that the relevant institutions respect any such vote. But they've gone about it rather 'bull at a gate'. Give the Scots their due. They did it properly.

 

2. The EU can only support Spain, because only Spain is a member of the EU. Catalans are, for present at least, members of the EU only by being Spanish

 

3. The last I heard the Basque people wouldn't vote for separation, and that eta was a spent force. 

[Guest]

4 hours ago, A mere monkey said:

I think the government will uphold its duty and crush the coup that a minority of separatists have staged ... 

Here in the American British colonies, we once had a separatist rebellion. The English refused to recognize any sort of autonomy or referendum, since it was by their constitution brazenly illegal. They moved to crush the rebellion, which they said was a few traitors to the crown stirring up trouble. They abused and jailed agitators, and disempowered the local government.

 

Things got weird after that. 

[A mere monkey]

9 minutes ago, BlackDog said:

Here in the American British colonies, we once had a separatist rebellion. The English refused to recognize any sort of autonomy or referendum, since it was by their constitution brazenly illegal. They moved to crush the rebellion, which they said was a few traitors to the crown stirring up trouble. They abused and jailed agitators, and disempowered the local government.

 

Things got weird after that. 

Yeah, because the independence of colonies and the deathtoll of a subsequent war are the same as using the police to enforce the law. By the way, what did those American colonies do when others try to get independence? Last time I checked, a civil war. The Spanish government's actions are more than justified. No country would allow a core part of their country to break free from their territory. Besides, the example you use is in no way comparable. Catalonia became a part of the kingdom of Aragón after a betrothal. In the 1500s, both kingdoms of Castile and Aragón went under the same rule because of yet another royal marriage, and in 1714 the 2 crowns were unified. The Catalans aren't oppressed by their "overlord". They are part of us, they've always been.

[Guest]

@A mere monkey It's all good. Just friendly discussion. 

[InsomniacAnna]

Yesterday was a confusing, hard day, but also full of emotion. I don't know what's going to happen, I'll keep living my life like I've been doing all this time. I'm not really that pro-independence, but with everything that's been happening, all the things I've seen... The Spanish neonazis singing fascist hymns, people with Spanish flags hitting other people just because. I'm not saying pro-independentists are saints, but honestly, the demonstrations and everything were super peaceful and they've remained peaceful always (except with the two police cars). It's evident that there have been errors on both parts, the Catalan president wanted dialogue to debate Catalonia's independence and the Spanish president wanted dialogue to debate the no independence of Catalonia. They just didn't want to agree on anything in the middle. 

 

So yeah, things are complicated, but I don't know. I've read in some Spanish media that the situation in Catalonia is terrible, war-like, antiindependentists being afraid of going outside their houses... And that's just bullshit. It's complete bullshit. I live in Barcelona, and I hang out with both pro and anti independentists, and there has been no problem so far. And we've debated all this, giving our points of view, and we tried to understand each other. And I've been to demonstrations and nothing has happened, and if there was someone with a Spanish flag, people clapped at them, and if someone got violent, a group of people would put themselves in the middle so nobody would get harmed. I trust what I've seen with my own two eyes, not what someone from outside Catalonia is writing on a biased newspaper.

 

I just don't know what to think anymore, we'll have to wait and see what happens. I don't want to get into trouble or anything, this is a friendly discussion  But, as someone who is from Catalonia, I had to say something. But again, I'm pro independence referenda, it should be a right, that's just my opinion. Not only for Catalonia, but for the rest of countries. Voting something shouldn't be illegal? Let people vote if they want to vote :/ But well, this is more complicated than that, I know. But well, we'll see what happens I guess!

[SorryNotSorry]

Oops... Catalonia. I thought the topic headline said California.

[Philip027]

I had no idea Catalonia was a real place and I figured it was some secret Internet society for cat lovers.

[lapat67]

On 27/10/2017 at 8:17 PM, A mere monkey said:

The Catalans aren't oppressed by their "overlord". They are part of us, they've always been.

Yes, Franco absolutely loved for everybody to speak their own languages and have their own cultures.

Som i serem! (Catalan for We are and we will be.)

I'm in favour of the subsidiary principle, where decisions get made at the lowest level that is workable. My Catalan flatmate once told me he was Catalan first, European second, and Spanish a distant third.

[ThaHoward]

not even 50% voted during the election. The polls tell clearly that most people will now vote for the opposition. It do seem as if most Catalans do not want independence.

 

18 minutes ago, lapat67 said:

Yes, Franco absolutely loved for everybody to speak their own languages and have their own cultures.

Som i serem! (Catalan for We are and we will be.)

I'm in favour of the subsidiary principle, where decisions get made at the lowest level that is workable. My Catalan flatmate once told me he was Catalan first, European second, and Spanish a distant third.

Looking by the numbers there is slightly more support for remaining in Spain than being independent. Then again the majority of indepence folks only want it IF they get to be in the EU, but want to remain in Spain if they can't. Seeing as EU support Spain it is telling that most Catalans, even without that, want to remain in Spain. We will see on December the 15th what they really want. When over 50% of the electorate don't participate in an election as they see it as illegal, treason etc it is quite giving. 

 

Also Spain today is different from Franco's Spain. Like, after Franco the new King on purpose moved Spain to a liberal democracy and made the hybrid model for the various language areas of Spain. Catalan is a recognized language, to claim that today's Spain is the one of Franco and hint that they have the same views as him on other languages, is as claiming Germany don't welcome slavic people or Jews because of Hitler. Either not serious or a fundemental lack of understanding. 

 

For the Basques they are tired of violence and indepence. The movement for indepence there is vastly reduced following hte many treaties.  They will likely do nothing out of the ordinary. This was just a political oppurtunism from the Catalan government, which was failed to doom as it have no support from Spain, EU or the Catalans. Also the most ironic part is that it will likely only put the Catalan region two steps back instead of forward. Even now bussinesses etc. keep flagging out of Catalonia to other parts of Spain, and the relatively stronger industry and financial sector in Catalonia have been perhaps the greatest contribitor realpolitically speaking for increased federalism, autonomy or indepence. Now the economy will likely be weakened. 

[A mere monkey]

32 minutes ago, lapat67 said:

Yes, Franco absolutely loved for everybody to speak their own languages and have their own cultures.

Som i serem! (Catalan for We are and we will be.)

I'm in favour of the subsidiary principle, where decisions get made at the lowest level that is workable. My Catalan flatmate once told me he was Catalan first, European second, and Spanish a distant third.

Yeah, good argument. Oh, wait, no, because Franco has been dead for more than 40 years and today's Spain has nothing to do with him. And by that same token, my Catalan classmate does not support independence. Is her opinion any less valid? No, if anything it's more legitimate because she's not suppoting a guy who tried to make a coup d'etat in a country and fled to another one in order not to face justice in the first one. Your classmate is and will be a Spaniard til the day they die, and you can remind them that on my behalf.

[Sally]

Catalonia's vote for independence seems to me, an American, about as valid as if my state of Washington voted for independence from America.   There are times when I WISH we were independent (especially now, under Trump), but that's not going to and shouldn't happen.  

[ThaHoward]

1 minute ago, Sally said:

Catalonia's vote for independence seems to me, an American, about as valid as if my state of Washington voted for independence from America.   There are times when I WISH we were independent (especially now, under Trump), but that's not going to and shouldn't happen.  

It is more valid as they have their own culture, history and language. But when less than 50% of the population boycott the election, and polls indicate the majority want to remain it give a clear indication.

[lapat67]

Sally, do you want to rejoin the British empire?

[Tyke]

Just now, lapat67 said:

Sally, do you want to rejoin the British empire?

I don't think we have an empire any more, do we?

[ThaHoward]

2 minutes ago, lapat67 said:

Sally, do you want to rejoin the British empire?

Well, if over 50% of America wanted to be part of Britain? It is like if Scotland just deicided to "hey let's declare indepence anyway!" would UK central governmetn accept that when most of the Scots don't want indepence? 

[Sally]

Yes, I would  like to if the Brits still had an empire.  

 

The Southern states of the US  had their own history and culture (and some would say language), yet most now agree that it was good that their bid for independence was not successful.  

[ThaHoward]

3 minutes ago, Sally said:

Yes, I would  like to if the Brits still had an empire.  

 

The Southern states of the US  had their own history and culture (and some would say language), yet most now agree that it was good that their bid for independence was not successful.  

They spoke English. The closest thing to compare it to, is well if the southern US spoke Frisian and English. Frisian is close to English, but distinct. And that they had their own history as if they had never been part of the 13 colonies until US annexed all of them. Yet the majority of Catalonia do NOT want indpence.

 

And here's the thing, one can't really use US as ceding from UK or the south trying to cede from the Union as examples. The reason is that history do not repeat itself in the sense that the situation in USA apply to modern day Catalonia. And the fact that one use such rethorics and compare Spain to Franco show that one isjust grasping after straws. 

[Tyke]

Yet Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and more are happy they are no longer in the USSR

[Sally]

Howard, I don't make any assumptions or claims about situations -- historical or cultural or language development -- in Norway.  Why do you often make such assumptions about the US?  It's irritating to feel like I have to go through them one by one, so I won't.  

[ThaHoward]

23 minutes ago, Sally said:

Howard, I don't make any assumptions or claims about situations -- historical or cultural or language development -- in Norway.  Why do you often make such assumptions about the US?  It's irritating to feel like I have to go through them one by one, so I won't.  

What? I said that the southern US don't have it's own language. Unless southern US is different language than English. If so I, and the rest of the world, would b very surprised. Now Catalonia have a more distinct language from Spain, as it is a different language alltogether and not just a different dialect or accent, and even then the majority seem to be in favor of remaining with Spain, so to compare it would the Thirteen Colonies ceding from UK or Southern US trying to cede from the Union is out of place as it is different circumstances alltogether. Now Norway have little to do with Catalonia, and s such I do not claim that various parts of Norway have other languages. Just like southern US do not have another language than Northenr US and do not have hundreds of years of different history. But that isn't the topic, so I don't get where you come from. 

 

And last time I checked, there is nothing in the TOS or anyother place that prevent people from tlaking about USA and having their own opinion. Perhaps unless you want to build a wall. 

 

And, here you are talking about Spain and Catalonia? 

 

25 minutes ago, Midland Tyke said:

Yet Belarus, Georgia, Ukraine, Azerbaijan and more are happy they are no longer in the USSR

But those are different situations. 

[Sally]

35 minutes ago, ThaHoward said:

And last time I checked, there is nothing in the TOS or anyother place that prevent people from tlaking about USA and having their own opinion. Perhaps unless you want to build a wall. 

 

Have your own opinion about places you haven't visited let alone lived in, but don't be shocked when people don't  take your opinion as fact.  And I have no idea what your "wall"  statement means.

 

I repeat:  Catalonia (regardless of its language) is part of Spain.   It will/would find that trying to secede from Spain will be no easier than the Southern states of the USA found their secession attempt was.  Secession of any region from any long-established nation never works well.   

[ThaHoward]

20 minutes ago, Sally said:

Have your own opinion about places you haven't visited let alone lived in, but don't be shocked when people don't  take your opinion as fact.  And I have no idea what your "wall"  statement means.

 

I repeat:  Catalonia (regardless of its language) is part of Spain.   It will/would find that trying to secede from Spain will be no easier than the Southern states of the USA found their secession attempt was.  Secession of any region from any long-established nation never works well.   

1) You don't know that. 2) It is a fact that South US, especially during the Civil War, is mostly an English speaking region. Meanwhile Catalan is  different language alltogether from Spanish. Like Frisian is different from English. So.. yeah. And the wall statement, just some similarities about some who want America to be only for Americans. Kinda remind me of ONE of the times I was in the US and wasn't allowed to be served at a place for not being from US. 

 

So if "Have your own opinion about places you haven't visited let alone lived in, but don't be shocked when people don't  take your opinion as fact" is true, how can you have an opinion on Catalonia, Spain and EU? I even remember yous aying you want a system like Norway or Sweden. Oh no!  

[Sally]

4 minutes ago, ThaHoward said:

1) You don't know that. 2) It is a fact that South US, especially during the Civil War, is mostly an English speaking region. Meanwhile Catalan is  different language alltogether from Spanish. Like Frisian is different from English. So.. yeah. And the wall statement, just some similarities about some who want America to be only for Americans. Kinda remind me of ONE of the times I was in the US and wasn't allowed to be served at a place for not being from US. 

You're both repeating yourself, misinterpreting what I said, and assuming I am an America-First idiot.  I really can't believe your claim that you were not served because you were from Europe.  But enough.